ArmInfo.The economic growth rates of the RA continue to be at a fairly high level, however, the negative developments in the industrial sector and changes in the financial system indicate that the risks of instability remain. This is stated in the analysis of the socio-economic development of the RA economy in January-November 2022, made by the Luys Foundation.
The Foundation experts noted that in November of this year there was some slowdown in economic activity due to strong growth in the previous year (base effect). However, the aggregate indicator of economic activity (CEA) remained at a fairly high level, amounting to 14.4% in January-November. At the same time, a decline is observed in the industrial sector, which is alarming, since high economic growth is mainly fixed due to the growth of services and trade, which are not sustainable, and in the event of neutralization of shocks (in the event of an outflow of citizens of the Russian Federation), a sharp decline may be recorded, which is fraught with the risk of weakening the potential of the economy and its export sector.
At the same time, experts forecast a rather modest increase in real wages in the context of high economic growth, and in the public sector, the figure is even decreases. In January-October, the average monthly nominal wage in the economy as a whole increased by 14.0%: in the public sector - by 4.2%, in the private sector - by 17%.
Over the same period, the average level of consumer prices increased by 8.7%, which, according to the Foundations's analysts, means that, in terms of nominal to real, in the economy as a whole, real wages increased by 4.9%, and in the public sector - decreased by 4.1%.
"It turns out that the real indicator of economic activity of this period, real wages grew at a about 3-fold lower rate, and the real wages in the public sector (including doctors, teachers), even decreased compared to the previous year," the authors of the document noted. These statistics, in their opinion, indicate that the economic growth of the current year is not inclusive and increases inequality, because if growth is not aimed at raising wages, then it goes to increase profits. And the profits are mostly received by the representatives of the rich class. Changes in the financial system also cause concern among the experts of the Foundation. It is noted that foreign currency deposits of non-residents increased sharply in the banking system, while loans in foreign currency decreased. Instead, banks issue loans in drams against attracted deposits in foreign currency. <In the future, in case of devaluation of the dram, the volume of deposits in the portfolio of banks will increase sharply, and the volume of loans will decrease, which will lead to problems related to financial stability. On the other hand, deposits of enterprises in banks are significantly increasing and the volume of loans provided by banks to enterprises is decreasing, which may indicate a decrease in investment activity. The latter is also a negative factor in terms of the potential of the economy and long-term stability>, the document says. - It should be noted that according to statistical data, in Armenia, the growth of economic activity in January- November 2022 accelerated to 14.4% per annum (from 5.2% in the same period of 2021), having also far exceeded the pre-Covid 7.5% growth in 11 months 2019 The growth of economic activity in January- November 2022 was largely determined by the service sector - by 28.2%, and to a lesser extent by the energy complex - by 16.8%, the trade sector- by 16.2%, the construction sector - by 13.9%, and the industrial sector - by 8.4%. In November of this year, by November 2021, economic activity increased by 13.8%, exceeding not only the 13.2% growth a year ago, but also the 10.1% growth in the pre-Covid period. In y-o-y terms (November 2022 to November 2021), all industries, except for the industrial sector, which was in a 2.3% decline, showed growth: the service sector - by 30.9%, the trade sector - 22.1%, the energy complex - by 17, 3% and the construction sector - by 11.3%. At the same time, inflation continues to grow: in January-November 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, it reached 8.7%; by November 2021 amounted to 8.8%, with an increase in inflation in November to 1.1% from October 0.3%, from levels recorded in 2021 in the periods under review - 7.1% in January-November, 9.6% in November 2021 to November 2020, with an increase in November to 1.7% from October's inflationary of 0.7%
