ArmInfo.With the current quality and level of investment, there is no need to talk about the growth of the economy's potential. Former Minister of Finance of Armenia Vardan Aramyan expressed a similar opinion in an interview with the Public Television.
He explained that the modernization of the economy is carried out through reforms and investments. Speaking about the latter, Aramyan noted that at the end of 2022, the real growth in investments amounted to 5%, and in the context of the last 4 years (excluding 2022), the volume of investments increased by only 3.5%. He drew attention to the fact that in the context of investments, the lion's share falls on housing construction.
The former minister stated that the potential of the Armenian economy is estimated at 4-5%. At the same time, he indicated that the growth in economic activity by 14.4% was supported by 3 factors - a significant increase in transfers of individuals from the Russian Federation due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, relocation and re-export.
In this regard, Aramyan noted that export growth was registered at the level of about 70%, which is an unprecedentedly high figure. "But we need to understand whether we have such a potential. What do we export? . In this context, Aramyan also recalled that Russia decided to maintain the mechanism of parallel exports within the EAEU due to sanction restrictions by the West on the supply of certain types of products to the Russian Federation.
"Economic growth is good. But you need to understand the following, that while the sun is shining, you need to repair roofs and install windows, because the sun won't always shine," he said. It should be noted that according to the RA Statistical Committee, in January-November 2022, economic activity in Armenia increased by 14.4% per annum, with a decline of only 4% in November. The volume of Armenia's foreign trade turnover for 11 months amounted to $12.5 billion with a y-o-y growth of 67.8%, due to an increase in both exports and imports by 75.2% and 63.6%, respectively - up to $4.7 billion and $7.7. billion. According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, the net inflow of transfers from individuals in January-November 2022 jumped 2.8 times - up to $2.3 billion, while a year earlier the growth was more modest (58.5%). In particular, the inflow of transfers increased by 2.4 times - to $4.6 billion - this is a new record level, mainly due to a significant increase in remittances from the Russian Federation - by 4.1 times to $3.2 billion. As a result, the share of the Russian Federation in inflow jumped to 69% from 41.2% a year earlier. Experts and financial authorities in Armenia attribute this to the influx of a huge number of immigrants from Russia, most of whom moved here along with the transfer of their capital. The first flow began against the backdrop of large-scale unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and later there was a new influx of immigrants due to the partial mobilization announced in the Russian Federation.
It should be noted, according to the latest estimates, since the beginning of March 2022, about 120 thousand foreign citizens (immigrants) have moved to Armenia, the vast majority of which are citizens of the Russian Federation.
