ArmInfo.The sharp increase in Armenian exports in 2022 is mainly due to the influence of exogenous factors and contains significant risks. This opinion was reached by experts of the LUYS Foundation, who studied the structure of exports of the Armenian economy for the reporting period, as well as the possibilities of economic growth in Armenia in the absence of these factors.
In 2022, a number of commodity groups recorded growth in both exports and imports, economists of the fund noted. Meanwhile, the production of some goods, for which a significant increase in export volumes was registered, is completely absent in Armenia, and the production volumes of some are significantly inferior to the volumes of their exports.
So, in 2022, almost 2/3 of all exports are exports of 5 commodity groups: "machinery, equipment, mechanisms," "vehicles," "precious and non-precious stones, precious metals and products made from them," "semi-finished products, alcoholic products," and soft drinks, tobacco, base metals and products. The analysis showed that in 2022 there are a number of areas of activity in which the volume of goods produced is significantly inferior to the volume of exports. There are significant deviations in the "production of computers, electronic and optical equipment," "production of base metals," "production of automobiles" and other industries. In addition, data for 2021 show that a number of goods exported in 2022 could not be produced in 2021. Therefore, these differences can only be explained by the presence of re- exports. If we calculate the growth in exports of these types of activities, then it will amount to about 1.88 billion US dollars, and the growth in production in these industries amounted to about 587.8 million US dollars. It turns out that at least in the amount of their difference, about 1.3 billion US dollars, re-export took place.
Thus, at least 24.8% of the export of the Republic of Armenia (about 1.3 billion US dollars) is re-export, without which the growth rate of exports would be more than 2 times lower. Moreover, re-exports also made a significant contribution to economic growth, accounting for about 2.6 percentage points of the 12.6% economic growth.
"These circumstances, in fact, give rise to the conclusion that a significant part of exports in 2022 were re- exports. Moreover, the analysis of statistical data shows that re-export in 2022 is mainly associated with the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in particular, with the sanctions applied against Russia," the authors of the document noted.
At the same time, as noted, in 2022, the share of exports to the Russian Federation, the leading trading partner of the Republic of Armenia, sharply increased as a result of an increase in demand for exports from Armenia to Russia, which naturally led to a decrease in export diversification, an increase in the risks of dependence of Armenian exporters on the Russian market. As a result, in 2022, the share of exports to the Russian Federation increased significantly over the year - by 17.1 percentage points, reaching 45.0% (the volume of exports to the Russian Federation in 2022 compared to 2021 increased by 186.8% or 1 US$570.3 million).
"It should be noted that, in addition to the direct effect, re-export has an indirect effect on economic growth (an increase in the economic activity of many economic entities, an increase in the disposable income of economic entities involved in re-export processes, which leads to a multiplier increase in their consumption, an increase in the investment costs of entrepreneurs, involved in these processes, increase budget revenues, which will contribute to the growth of public spending, etc.). In this study, such an indirect impact on economic growth was not assessed," the experts of the LUYS Foundation stressed.
According to the report "On the progress and results of the implementation of the program of the Armenian government (2021-2026) in 2022", in 2022, exports from Armenia increased by 54.4%, and imports - by 33.8%. Thus, exports from Armenia in January-December 2022 in drams amounted to 2,270.6 billion drams ($5,360.1 million), while imports for the same period - 3,733.4 billion drams ($8,768.7 million). ). According to the Statistical Committee, exports from Armenia in January-December 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 increased by 77.7%, amounting to $5,360.1 million. In AMD, exports in January- December 2022 amounted to 2,270.6 billion drams. Imports for the reporting period amounted to $8,768.7 million, recording an increase of 63.5% compared to January-December 2021. In drams, imports in January-December 2022 amounted to 3,733.4 billion drams
