7% or more: Armenian GDP growth forecast from Prime Minister

ArmInfo. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan believes that the Armenian government is capable of managing crises and ensuring high economic growth. Pashinyan announced on October 12 at a government meeting.

"I will report with satisfaction that Armenia, despite all the  difficulties, continues to remain in the zone of high economic  growth. According to all forecasts, there will also be high economic  growth in Armenia in 2023; now we are confident that we will ensure  at least the 7 percent rate of economic growth provided for in the  state budget," Pashinyan said.  According to the prime minister, this  assessment is restrained and conservative and Armenia is likely to  record a higher level of economic growth.

Earlier in 2022, Armenia collected taxes of 1 trillion 926 billion  drams, against the planned 1 trillion 844 billion drams. In 2023, the  financial authorities, in the context of 7% GDP growth (nominal GDP  will be 9 trillion 317.9 billion drams), a 5% deflator and 5.6%  inflation, plan to collect tax revenues (taxes and state duties) of 2  trillion 203.7 billion drams (23.7% of GDP). In general, state  treasury revenues will reach 2 trillion 302 billion drams (24.7% of  GDP), and expenses will reach 2 trillion 591 billion drams (27.8% of  GDP), of which current expenses are 2 trillion 043.3 billion drams  (21.9% of GDP), and the deficit is 288.9 billion drams (3.1% of GDP).  According to the Cabinet of Ministers program for 2021-2026, Armenia  aims to ensure a y-o-y increase in GDP of 7%, and in the presence of  favorable conditions - all 9%.

In September, the Central Bank improved its forecast for 2023 for  Armenia's GDP growth from the previous 6.9% to an updated 7.2%.  International financial institutions, as well as the Central Bank of  the Republic of Armenia, forecasted a significant slowdown in GDP  growth for 2023 from double-digit 12.6% in 2022 to single-digit  rates. Thus, the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF),  European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), updating  their forecasts in May-June, pointed to a more visible slowdown in  Armenia's GDP growth this year to 4.4%, 5.5% and 5% respectively.   Slightly higher GDP growth rates for 2023 are projected by the S&P,  Fitch and Moody's - 7.5%, 7.2% and 7%, respectively.