ArmInfo. At the moment, the Russian economy, especially at its current stage of development, depends to a fairly significant extent on Armenia. Aghasi Tavadyan, an economist and head of "Economic Uncertainty Modeling" laboratory, ASUE at the Armenian State Economic University, told an ArmInfo correspondent.
According to him, as of September 2023, on y-o-y terms, goods worth $3.68 billion were exported from Armenia to Russia, and $2.97 billion were imported. Thus, according to the current situation, Armenia exports to Russia by 24% more goods than it imports. Moreover, products with high added value are exported. For comparison, the expert cited data from 2021, when y-o-y exports to the Russian Federation amounted to $841 million, and imports were almost 2-fold more - $1.79 billion. Today, this ratio is exactly the opposite. "Over these 2 years, exports have increased more than 4-fold.
According to our estimates, about 43% of total exports are re-exports. Moreover, the peak of exports recorded in mid-2023, but at the moment, export figures to Russia are trending downward," Tavadyan noted.
Against this background, he urged not to create illusions about the possibility of replacing the Russian direction with any other. "Today, more than 52% of all exports from Armenia go to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, and, say, to Europe - 16% alone. Moreover, unlike Russia and the EAEU, more than 80% of all Armenian exports to Europe are non-ferrous metals and ore, as well as textiles - about 10% and then mainly on tolling terms. So it is naive to believe that an artificial reversal of economic priorities towards Europe will bring benefits to the country," Tavadyan emphasized.
According to statistical data, Armenia, however, has somewhat diversified its sales markets. The country has slightly increased foreign trade with the USA (2-fold), UAE (2.3-fold) and many EU countries (2-2.2-fold), while simultaneously increasing foreign trade turnover (2.3-2.8-fold) with Japan, Canada and Korea, according to the data of the RA Statistical Committee for Jan-Sept 2023.
Russia holds the leadership in terms of export and import volumes, and the next four places in terms of exports - the UAE, China, the Netherlands ($218.7 million), and Iraq ($1375 million), and in terms of imports - China, the USA, Iran and Germany ($428.3 million) .
