Friday, December 8 2023 00:20

ArmInfo.In Armenia's foreign trade, the UAE pushed China out of the 2nd place in terms of exports,  and the USA is trying to overtake China in terms of imports. But Russia continues to lead in foreign trade turnover with Armenia with a coverage of over 35%, and the milestone of 49.6% has already been reached in exports alone, according to the data of the RA Statistical Committee for January-October 2023.

At the same time, it should be noted that exports to Russia and  imports from Russia have significantly slowed down in growth rates,  exports to China have reached moderate growth with a strong slowdown  in import growth, while the UAE continues to significantly increase  exports, and the USA, as before, significantly increase imports.  Also, there is a strong intensification of Armenia's foreign trade  with many EU countries, as well as with Japan, Canada and Korea.  Moreover, imports in the direction of Japan and Canada are growing  significantly, and in the direction of Korea, exports have increased  several times, while significant growth in imports continues.  Thirteen countries from Europe have significantly increased both  exports and imports. Imports increased significantly with: France,  the Netherlands, Belgium, Slovakia, Lithuania, Finland, Hungary,  Romania, Portugal, Spain, Czech Republic, Sweden, Cyprus, and five  more - Germany, Austria, Denmark, Poland, Italy, and the export to  Greece has significantly increased.

So, in the direction of Russia, a noticeable slowdown in growth is  observed both in the total volume of foreign trade and separately in  exports and imports. In particular, foreign trade turnover between  Armenia and Russia slowed down in y-o-y growth from 86.4% to 40.8%,  namely for exports - from 2.5-fold to 63% and for imports - from  53.4% to 22.1 %. As a result, the foreign trade turnover between  Armenia and Russia amounted to $5.4 billion in January-October 2023,  including exports - $2.9 billion and imports - $2.5 billion. Russia's  share in Armenia's foreign trade turnover remained almost unchanged  over the year, just slightly decreasing from 35.2% to 35.1%, which  was provoked by an increase in the share in exports from 42.1% to  49.6% with a decline in the share in imports from 31% to 26.5%.

China continues to occupy the 2nd place in the volume of foreign  trade turnover with Armenia, this place both in terms of exports and  imports, but now holds it only in terms of imports, and in terms of  exports, the UAE has already pushed China to the 3rd place for a  year. As in the case of Russia, the y-o-y growth of foreign trade  between Armenia and China slowed down - from 42% to 26.4%, reaching a  volume of $1.7 billion.  Moreover, a strong slowdown in growth was  observed in imports - from 68.1% to 28.8 %, while export dynamics  increased from 9.8% decline to 17.7%, as a result of which the  volumes of exports and imports to China amounted to $347.5 million  and $1.4 billion, respectively. China's share in Armenia's foreign  trade turnover decreased year-on-year from 12.6% to 11.3%, against  the backdrop of a decline in both the share of imports from 16.1% to  14.5% and the share of exports from 7.1% to 6%.

The UAE has risen to the 3rd place in the volume of foreign trade  turnover with Armenia, and Iran, which has been occupying this  position for a long time, has dropped two places at once, as the USA  occupied the 4th place. At the same time, the UAE ranked 2nd in terms  of exports a year ago, pushing China to 3rd place. Thus, foreign  trade turnover between Armenia and the UAE reached $888.4 million  (with a 5-fold slowdown in y-o-y growth from up to 92.8%), due to the  same 6.7-fold slowdown in export growth up to 97.7%, with a slight  slowdown in import growth from 48.8% to 47.4%, the absolute value of  which was $822.4 million and $65.9 million, respectively. The UAE's  share in Armenia's foreign trade turnover increased year-on-year from  4.2% to 5.8%, due to an increase in the share in exports from 9 .9%  to 14.2% while maintaining the share in imports at 0.7%.

The United States entered the TOP-5 in terms of foreign trade  turnover, jumping from the 6th to the 4th place. Meanwhile, the USA  has already entered the TOP-5 by the volume of imports a year ago,  moving to the 3rd place a year later, which was previously occupied  by Iran. Thus, foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the United  States reached $596 million (with a 2-fold slowdown in y-o-y growth  from up to 83.3%), due to the continued 2.1-fold high growth of  imports with a deepening decline in exports from 8.2% to 36.5 %, the  absolute value of which amounted to $556 million and $40 million,  respectively. The US share in Armenia's foreign trade turnover  increased on y-o-y terms from 3% to 3.9%, due to an increase in the  share of imports from 3.9% to 5.8%, with a decrease in share in  imports from 1.5% to 0.7%.

Iran dropped to 5th place in terms of foreign trade turnover, having  also lost 3rd place in imports, being pushed out by the United States  to 4th place.

Thus, foreign trade between Armenia and Iran significantly slowed  down in y-o-y growth from 45.3% to stagnant 0.2%, amounting to $566.6  million. This was provoked by a deterioration in the export trend  from 82.4% growth to 13.7% recession, and a strong slowdown in import  growth from 39.8% to 2.9%, the absolute value of which based on the  results of 10 months of this year, amounted to $79.2 million and  $487.4 million, respectively. As a result, Iran's share in Armenia's  foreign trade turnover decreased on y-o- y terms from 5.2% to 3.7%,  accompanied by a decline in the share of both imports from 7% to 5%  and exports from 2.2% to 1.4 %.

As a result of such changes in the TOP-5 countries-trading partners  of Armenia, with the UAE and the USA joining the TOP-5, Germany,  which previously occupied 5th place, shifted to 6th, which was  accompanied by a slowdown in the y-o-y growth of foreign trade  turnover between Armenia and Germany from 73% to 39.1%, providing a  volume of $543.2 million. At the same time, Germany managed to remain  in the TOP-5 leaders in imports, but even here there was a decline  from 4th to 5th place, due to the slowdown in y-o-y growth from 86.7%  to 55.4%, ensuring a volume of $468.9 million. In parallel with this,  the dynamics of exports from Armenia to Germany also worsened, from a  38.1% increase to a 16.2% decrease, the volume of the decline reached  $74.2 million.

Russia holds the leadership in terms of export and import volumes,  and the next  four places in terms of exports were taken as follows::  the UAE, China, the Netherlands ($229.9 million) and Iraq ($149.3  million), and in terms of imports: China, the USA, Iran and Germany.  Moreover, the growth of exports and imports in the direction of the  Netherlands, remained at double-digit rates - 27.9% and 26.8%,  respectively, and in the direction of Iraq, a 2-fold increase in  imports was accompanied by a decline in exports by 23.8% (it was the  opposite situation a year ago).  Among theTOP-5 leaders in foreign  trade with Armenia, three countries have a negative balance, Russia  has reached a positive balance, and the UAE, as before, has a  positive balance. Thus, the negative balance of foreign trade between  Armenia and China increased by 33% to $1.1 billion, with the USA it  incraesed 2.6-fold to $515.9 million, with Iran it increased by 6.8%  to $408.3 million, and the positive balance of the UAE incraesed  2-fold- up to $756.5 million. The balance of foreign trade between  Armenia and Russia went from a negative level of $329.4 million to a  positive $319.5 million, since rapidly growing exports began to  dominate.  In total, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-October 2023 exceeded $15.4 billion, with growth slowing to  41.2% (from last year's 66.4%). In particular, a strong slowdown in  growth was observed both in exports from 71.2% to 38.5%, and in  imports from 63.5% to 42.9%, the volume of which amounted to $5.8  billion and $9.6 billion, respectively.

Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU countries in  January-October 2023 amounted to $5.7 billion, with a slowdown in  y-o-y  growth from 88% to 41%, against the background of a strong  slowdown in growth of both exports from 2.5-fold to 66.1%, and  imports - from 55 .9% to 20.1%, the volume of which amounted to $3  billion and $2.7 billion. At the same time, the foreign trade  turnover of Armenia with the EU countries in January-October 2023  slowed down in y-o-y growth less noticeably - from 39.2% to 27.1%,  amounting to $2.3 billion, which was provoked by a deterioration in  export dynamics from 21.1% growth to a 3.5% decline and a slowdown in  import growth from 52.7% to 45.1%, the volumes of which amounted to  $643.6 million and $1.6 billion, respectively.

As a result, the negative balance of foreign trade of Armenia in  January-October 2023, having slowed down in growth from 53% to 46%,  amounted to $3.8 billion. In particular, Armenia's foreign trade  balance with EAEU countries increased from negative $370.7 million to   positive $399.2 million, and with EU countries the negative balance  doubled- to $995.4 million, while a year earlier a negative balance  was recorded in both directions with a decline by 41% in the EAEU and  a 2.4-fold increase in the EU.

It is  noteworthy that foreign trade with EAEU countries countries  remains on the rise, moreover, with all  four countries (Russia,  Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), due to a significant increase in  export volumes while imports decline.

It is also worth paying attention to the fact that the y-o-y   dynamics of Armenia's foreign trade with Ukraine is beginning to  improve, as evidenced by a sharp slowdown in the decline from 41.2%  to 0.9%, thanks to the import trend moving from a 40.4% decline to  0.1% growth and a sharp slowdown in the decline in exports from 45.8%  to 7.1%.

With neighboring Georgia, the dynamics of foreign trade turnover are  worsening, to a 13.7% decline from 64.5% growth, amounting to $215.6  million (from 8th place to 10th ). This is due to a deterioration in  the trend of both exports - from a 2.4-fold increase to a 9% decline,  and imports - from a 21.8% increase to an 18.8% decline, which was  the result of leaving the TOP-10 in terms of import and from the  TOP-5 export leaders.