Rafael Gevorgyan: Re-export did not have significant impact on  economic growth rates

ArmInfo. Re-export did not have a significant impact on the growth rate of the Armenian economy.  Deputy Minister of Economy of Armenia Rafael Gevorgyan stated during a press conference on January 8, referring to the results of the study of the growth structure of the RA economy.

In this vein, he emphasized that re-exports are essentially not part  of the real sector, and only have an impact in the context of  margins. "This is clearly visible in the structure of economic  growth," said the deputy minister.

According to Gevorgyan, the change in external demand in the IT  sector, the processing industry and the inflow of highly productive  labor had a greater impact on GDP growth.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, about 110 thousand people  have relocated to Armenia from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, of which  about 60% have Armenian surnames.

As RA Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan said earlier, the impact of  resettlement factor on Armenia's economic growth is estimated to be  one third. According to him, in 2022, 37 thousand companies opened in  Armenia, of which 12 thousand were LLCs and CJSCs, and 25 thousand  were individual entrepreneurs.  "They all participate in providing  high economic growth," the minister said.

The Central Bank of Armenia has once again improved its forecast GDP  growth for 2023 - from the previous 7.2% to an updated 8.3%. At the  same time, the Bank revised its GDP expectations for 2024 - towards  higher growth of 6.1% (against the previously forecasted 5.6%).

The IMF has improved its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth for 2023  from the previous 5.5% to an updated 7%, with a slowdown in 2024 to  5% and to 4.5% in 2025.

The World Bank (WB) expects 4.4% economic growth in Armenia in 2023,  with the pace accelerating to 4.8% in 2024. The EBRD forecasts  Armenia's GDP growth by 6.5% for 2023, with a slowdown in 2024 to  4.5%.

The draft RA budget for 2024 envisages 7% economic growth (similar to  the rate envisaged in the RA budget for 2023), and the increase in  added value is expected to be achieved in industry - by 4.7%, in  agriculture - by 3 .5%, in construction - by 8.9%, and in the service  sector - by 7.9%, and tax collection will increase by 7.3%.

At the same time, the growth of economic activity in Armenia in  January-October 2023 began to slow down, amounting to 9.2% per annum,  against 14.5% growth a year ago in the same period.