ArmInfo.Today, April 5, a trilateral meeting will take place in Brussels between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, at which economic issues will be discussed.
Most likely, we will talk about a new package of financial assistance to Armenia to increase the economic stability of the Armenian state and create a balance between the West and the Eurasian Economic Union. Against the backdrop of these expectations, voices are increasingly heard in Armenian society against Armenia's participation in the CSTO and in others, including economic associations with the participation of the Russian Federation.
Commenting on such developments to ArmInfo, the famous Armenian economist Suren Parsyan noted that Yerevan will be able to ensure its long-term development only if it can actively develop complementary and mutually beneficial ties with various centers of the world, including the United States, the countries of the European Union, and China. , Iran, Russia. Armenia can and does become a bridge between various centers, as a result of which in recent years the country has experienced high economic growth, export volumes of domestic products and services have grown, and large cash flows have been attracted.
In 2023, the country's foreign trade turnover amounted to $20.7 billion, 36.8% of which came from the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, 12.9% from the countries of the European Union, and 3.2% from the United States. In other words, Armenia's trade turnover with the United States and the EU taken together is almost twice as low as the trade turnover with the EAEU countries. This, as the economist emphasized, indicates the high degree of dependence of the republic on the countries of the Eurasian Union. "In itself, membership and participation of a particular state in a particular association is not an end in itself, it is a means to ensure progress in the economy.
At the first stage after Armenia joined the EAEU in 2014, the republic did not have any tangible benefits, but today, thanks to the use of this instrument, we have begun to receive very significant dividends, which must be understood and appreciated. You can always refuse this unification, but in return you need to find an alternative," Parsyan noted, adding, for example, that both the US State Department and the EU raise the issue of the need to increase the level of sustainability of the Armenian economy and its diversification, but to achieve these goals it is necessary to have programs and events.
"Empty statements do not diversify the economy," the economist said, citing as an example the fact that in 2023, Armenia's exports towards the EAEU increased by 40.8%, while to the EU countries and the USA, on the contrary, decreased by 28.2 % and 38% respectively. Thus, as Parsyan noted, on the one hand, there are calls for diversification of export directions, and on the other, export volumes to the EU countries and the USA are declining. "We need to develop mutually beneficial and complementary ties, no one is against this possibility, but we must keep in mind a number of circumstances, including the energy security of the state, especially in terms of energy prices, food security when it comes to grain , corn or other essential goods. 99% of all grain supplies to the domestic market of Armenia come from Russia. And if the Russian Federation stops grain supplies, we will only have enough production for three months. We have a similar situation with sugar and buckwheat , and with other goods, that is, Russia acts as a kind of guarantor of energy and food security of Armenia, and at present there is simply no alternative to this," the economist emphasized.
He also pointed out the dangers that a possible rise in gas prices could bring to the republic, which in a chain reaction would lead to an increase in prices for electricity, services and goods, including essentials. Europe itself, as Parsyan recalled, pays twice as much for gas as Armenia. "But are we ready to pay 2-3 times more?
In this case, we are talking about basic economic calculations that need to be carried out in order to understand whether the EU and the US are ready to pay for such a possible development of events?" Parsyan noted, adding that the experience of Georgia and Moldova showed that they were ready for this unready For example, Moldova pays from $400 to $500 for 1 thousand cubic meters of gas versus $165 paid by Armenia.
The economist called for considering Armenia's membership in the EAEU in the context of economic benefits, and not political statements. Armenia must use all platforms, since only in this case will there be an opportunity for long-term economic development. "If our neighbors have advantages associated with the presence of oil and gas in Azerbaijan, and Georgia with its geographical location, then Armenia's advantage is the presence of good connections with various centers, which must be actively developed. If today, under pressure from the West, we break ties with the strategic partner, then where are the guarantees that tomorrow there will be no demands to sever ties with Iran or, for example, with China. It is unacceptable when outsiders try to influence your economic interests," the expert said.