ArmInfo.n 2024, the shortfall in tax revenues and duties will amount to 116.7 billion drams or 4.5% of the target. Haykaz Fanyan, head of the ACSES Analytical Center, came to this conclusion by analyzing the indicators underlying the Medium-Term Expenditure Program for 2025- 2027 (MSEP), approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on July 4.
1. The expenditure side of the 2024 budget will be underfulfilled by 88.9 billion drams, which is about 2.8% of the approved budget.
2. In 2024, the shortfall in tax revenues and duties will amount to 116.7 billion drams, which is 4.5% of the plan. Although, taking into account that the lag in the first half of the year was about 9%, it can be assumed that by the end of the year the actual figure will be lower than expected.
3. The state budget deficit will not increase; instead, current and capital expenditures will be reduced by 60 billion drams and 28.9 billion drams, respectively, that is, however, de facto sequestration will be carried out, regardless of whether it is officially announced or not . ..
4. In 2024, real GDP growth is expected to be 6.3%, in 2025 - 5.8%, the economist wrote on his Facebook page.
Against this background, the expert notes, it is interesting that in 2025 it is planned to increase the budget expenditures to 3.5 trillion. drams, and tax revenue collection - up to 2.9 trillion. drams, while 2.5 trillion is expected this year.
"It seems that the PSSR is divorced from our reality and does not reflect the realities on earth," concluded Haykaz Fanyan.
When asked by an ArmInfo correspondent, if a decision is made to carry out sequestration, at the expense of or programs it will be implemented, the head of the ACSES Analytical Center noted, "the first will be the program for introducing Universal Health Insurance>.
The state budget for 2024 plans to allocate approximately 18 billion drams. But, as Samvel Kharazyan, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Health, recently told ArmInfo in an interview, most likely, the practical stage of introducing the IUD will be postponed until 2025, since today the RA Law "On Comprehensive Health Insurance" has not yet been adopted, despite the fact that the draft document itself was ready in April 2023, put into circulation, and a number of proposals were received for it. "The delay in the adoption of the legal act is mainly due to the determination of the state treasury's "ability" to fully subsidize the insurance premiums of the first group of beneficiaries already in 2024>, he said.
According to the state budget for this year, in 2024, in conditions of ensuring 7% GDP growth, revenues of the state treasury of Armenia will amount to 2 trillion 723.6 billion drams (25.9% of GDP), and expenses - 3 trillion 206.5 billion drams (30.5% of GDP). Of the 2 trillion 723 billion drams of state treasury revenue, 2 trillion 613.6 billion will be tax revenues and state duties (24.9% of GDP), against the actual 2 trillion 221.7 billion drams for 2023 (23.4% of GDP) and 1 trillion 962.5 billion drams (23 .1% of GDP) for 2022. 22 billion 276 million drams will be official grants and 87 billion 676 million drams will be other income. Current expenses will reach 2 trillion 511.2 billion drams (23.9% of GDP), and transactions with non- financial assets will amount to 695.3 billion drams. The public debt of Armenia will reach 5 trillion 314 billion drams (50.5% of GDP), and the government debt will reach 5 trillion 082.9 billion drams (48.3% of GDP) or $11 billion, 892 million (in the approved PSSR - 5 trillion 173 billion drams).
Meanwhile, at the end of May in parliament, the head of the State Revenue Committee, Rustam Badasyan, following the head of the Ministry of Finance, Vahe Hovhannisyan, admitted the existence of problems associated with ensuring the tax collection indicators recorded in the state budget. The head of the State Revenue Committee did not specify the amount of the "shortfall", but indicated that the problems were caused by changes in the structure of the economy, which contributed to the sharp growth of areas "without tax potential". The chief financier of the republic, in turn, said that there is a risk of not collecting 60 billion drams from the amount fixed in the approved state budget for this year. At the same time, according to him, the deviation from the plan will not exceed 3-4%, which will be within normal limits. , concluded the chief financier of Armenia.
