Wednesday, August 28 2024 17:47

ArmInfo. Gold re-export has "overshadowed" the economic downturn in Armenia. A similar opinion  was expressed during a press conference on August 28 by Aghasi Tavadyan, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor and a member of the Eurasian Economic Club.

 He noted that as of the end of June 2024,  the volume of exports from Armenia reached $13 billion, which is 90%  higher than the figure for the previous year. However, if we look at  the structure of exports in more detail, 62% is accounted for by  precious and semi-precious metals and stones.  In the first three  months alone, gold re-export accounted for 75%. "If we exclude gold,  we do not have a 90% growth in exports, but an 11% decline. That is,  we have become a transit country for gold, and re- export from Russia  to the UAE and "Greater China" "has obscured" the economic downturn,"  the economist emphasized. He noted that all goods in all directions  showed a decline, and only gold demonstrated growth of almost 8  times. "Re-export - covered everything," said Tavadyan.

In general, the expert noted that the Armenian economy depends on  external factors. In this regard, he recalled the influx of Russian  capital and relocators with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.  However, this factor was not long-term. By 2023, there was an outflow  of capital and a decline in indicators.  Nevertheless, since November  2023, as Tavadyan pointed out, the re-export of gold from Russia has  been launched.  "Until 2021, 90% of Russian gold exports went to the  London Stock Exchange. After the start of the war, this gold sought  different routes. Since November 2023, 90% of this gold passed  through Armenia to the Emirates (55%) and "Greater China" (45%)," the  economist noted.

At the same time, he called the impression that Armenia managed to  diversify export markets erroneous.  This is because, for the first  time, the UAE replaced Russia, as Armenia's main export partner.  Tavadyan believes this picture was formed due to the re-export of  Russian gold. According to data from the Customs Service of Armenia,  last year Armenia exported 29,122.3 kg of gold. This amount is 3.2  times more than the previous year compared to a 2.3-fold increase in  2022.The customs value increased by 4.3 times, totaling $1.8 billion.   The majority of exports were sent to the UAE (71.4%) and Hong Kong  (25.4%). A much smaller amount was exported to India (2.7%) with the  remaining tiny share being distributed among China, Russia, Italy and  the Czech Republic.

In 2023, 44,592.8 kg of gold were imported, showing an annual growth  rate of 7.7 times compared to 3.1 times in 2022.The customs value  also increased by 6.3 times, reaching $ 1.8 billion. The primary  importer of gold into Armenia is Russia (99.2%), followed by the UAE  (0.5%) and Switzerland (0.1%). Other countries such as Austria,  Thailand, the USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Italy and Chile  supply even smaller volumes of gold to Armenia.