Monday, September 9 2024 18:28

ArmInfo. In Armenia's foreign trade, Russia leads in imports at 63.6% and the UAE leads in exports  at 45.3% compared to 25.3% and 13% respectively from a year ago.   Their share in the total turnover has increased to 44.4% and 19.5%  from 36% and 5.2% a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of  the RA Statistical Committee for January-July 2024.  

Russia maintains its leadership in total foreign trade turnover and in imports.  Specifically, the imports volume between Armenia and Russia in  January-July 2024 reached $7.4 billion, increasing by 4.5 times over  the year. The volume of exports amounted to $1.7 billion, a decrease  of 22.4% compared to the previous year. As a result, the foreign  trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation totaled  $9.1 billion, marking a 2.4 increase from the previous year.  

The UAE has moved up to 2nd place in foreign trade with Armenia - $3.99  billion, with an annual growth rate of 7.3 times. Additinally, the  UAE has taken the lead in exports - $3.95 billion, with an annual  growth of 7.7 times. However, in terms of imports, the UAE only  provided a small volume of $32.9 million, with an annual growth rate  of 4.6%.  

China ranked 3rd  in foreign trade with Armenia, totaling  $1.6 billion, with an annual growth rate of 41.6%.  Exports to China  reached $777.8 million, a 3.2 fold increase, and imports amounted to  $865.2 million, a 5.8%. decrease.

Iran still holds the 4th position - $388.8 million, despite  experiencing a 2%. annual decline. In particular, export volumes to  this country reached only $63.2 million, with an increase of 4.7%,  and import volumes decreased by 3.2%, to $325.7 million.  Germany  moved up to the 5th position - $271.5 million, despite an annual  decline of 31.1%.

Moreover, the decline was evident in both imports  and exports - by 30.7% and 33.3%, the volumes of which amounted to  $237.1 million and $34.4 million, respectively. Germany's share  decreased both in exports to 0.4% and in imports to 2%. It should be  noted that the leaders in the export of goods and services from  Armenia were the UAE, Russia, China, Iraq ($108.1 million) and  Georgia ($90.2 million). In terms of imports, the leaders were  Russia, China, Iran, Germany and the USA ($232.5 million).  

Moreover, in the direction of Iraq there was a meager 0.1% growth in exports  with a significant 91.9% decline in imports, in the direction of  Georgia, exports and imports increased by 3% and 27.4%, and in the  direction of the USA, a 19.9% growth in exports was accompanied by a  decline in imports by 44.9%.  Among the five leaders in foreign trade  with Armenia, only the UAE maintains a positive balance - with an  increase of up to $3.9 billion, while the others have a negative  balance. Thus, the negative balance of trade with Russia amounted to  $5.8 billion, and with Iran, Germany and China - $262.5 million,  $202.7 million and $87.3 million, respectively.

In January-July 2024, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU  countries  reached $9.2 billion (45.2% of the total volume), with an  annual growth of 2.3 times. This was due to a 4.4-fold increase in  imports, with a 21.2% decline in exports, the volumes of which  amounted to $7.5 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.  In  January-July 2024, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EU  countries amounted to $1.3 billion (6.3% of the total volume), with  an annual decline of 21.4%. Moreover, both imports and exports in the  direction of the EU showed a decline of 19.4% and 26.3%, the volumes  of which amounted to $939.7 million and $331.9 million, respectively.  As a result, the share of the EAEU in exports decreased over the year  to 20%, increasing in imports to 64.1%, in both cases due to Russia,  and the share of the EU countries decreased both in exports to 3.8%  and in imports to 8%, mainly due to Germany and the Netherlands.  In  particular, Armenia's foreign trade balance with the EAEU countries  decreased from a positive $496.8 million to a negative $5.7 billion,  and with the EU countries, the negative balance decreased from $715.8  million to $607.8 million.

In total, Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-July 2024  exceeded $20.4 billion, with an annual growth of 95%. This growth was  driven by a 2.2 times increase in exports reaching $8.7 billion and a  79.1% increase in imports, reaching $11.7 billion. As a result,  Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-July 2024  reached $2.9 billion, marking an 11.5% increase from the previous  year.

It should be noted that the June forecasts of the IMF, the World Bank  and the Central Bank of Armenia regarding the dynamics of exports and  imports for 2024-2025 differ greatly. According to the CBA forecast,  the dynamics of exports and imports, after almost identical growth in  2023 by 28.7-28.3%, will improve imperceptibly in 2024 - to growth of  29.6% (for exports) and 28.6-27.2% (for imports), and in 2025 will  turn towards a double-digit decline in exports by 34.4-33.8% and  imports by 28.6-30.6%. The IMF already predicts a 1.4% decline in  exports for Armenia in 2024, with an acceleration in 2025 to 10.4%,  and a strong slowdown in import growth to 2.8% in 2024 and a 5.4%  decline in 2025. The World Bank predicts a strong slowdown in export  and import growth for Armenia in 2024, to 5.2% and 6.7%,  respectively, with a slight acceleration in 2025 to 5.6% and 7%. 

According to ArmInfo analysts, none of the international structures  took into account in their forecasts the factor of the colossal  growth of the transit component of Armenia's foreign trade, which is  based on the re-export/re-import of precious metals and stones Russia - Armenia - UAE