ArmInfo. In Armenia's foreign trade, Russia leads in imports at 63.6% and the UAE leads in exports at 45.3% compared to 25.3% and 13% respectively from a year ago. Their share in the total turnover has increased to 44.4% and 19.5% from 36% and 5.2% a year earlier. This is evidenced by the data of the RA Statistical Committee for January-July 2024.
Russia maintains its leadership in total foreign trade turnover and in imports. Specifically, the imports volume between Armenia and Russia in January-July 2024 reached $7.4 billion, increasing by 4.5 times over the year. The volume of exports amounted to $1.7 billion, a decrease of 22.4% compared to the previous year. As a result, the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation totaled $9.1 billion, marking a 2.4 increase from the previous year.
The UAE has moved up to 2nd place in foreign trade with Armenia - $3.99 billion, with an annual growth rate of 7.3 times. Additinally, the UAE has taken the lead in exports - $3.95 billion, with an annual growth of 7.7 times. However, in terms of imports, the UAE only provided a small volume of $32.9 million, with an annual growth rate of 4.6%.
China ranked 3rd in foreign trade with Armenia, totaling $1.6 billion, with an annual growth rate of 41.6%. Exports to China reached $777.8 million, a 3.2 fold increase, and imports amounted to $865.2 million, a 5.8%. decrease.
Iran still holds the 4th position - $388.8 million, despite experiencing a 2%. annual decline. In particular, export volumes to this country reached only $63.2 million, with an increase of 4.7%, and import volumes decreased by 3.2%, to $325.7 million. Germany moved up to the 5th position - $271.5 million, despite an annual decline of 31.1%.
Moreover, the decline was evident in both imports and exports - by 30.7% and 33.3%, the volumes of which amounted to $237.1 million and $34.4 million, respectively. Germany's share decreased both in exports to 0.4% and in imports to 2%. It should be noted that the leaders in the export of goods and services from Armenia were the UAE, Russia, China, Iraq ($108.1 million) and Georgia ($90.2 million). In terms of imports, the leaders were Russia, China, Iran, Germany and the USA ($232.5 million).
Moreover, in the direction of Iraq there was a meager 0.1% growth in exports with a significant 91.9% decline in imports, in the direction of Georgia, exports and imports increased by 3% and 27.4%, and in the direction of the USA, a 19.9% growth in exports was accompanied by a decline in imports by 44.9%. Among the five leaders in foreign trade with Armenia, only the UAE maintains a positive balance - with an increase of up to $3.9 billion, while the others have a negative balance. Thus, the negative balance of trade with Russia amounted to $5.8 billion, and with Iran, Germany and China - $262.5 million, $202.7 million and $87.3 million, respectively.
In January-July 2024, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU countries reached $9.2 billion (45.2% of the total volume), with an annual growth of 2.3 times. This was due to a 4.4-fold increase in imports, with a 21.2% decline in exports, the volumes of which amounted to $7.5 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively. In January-July 2024, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EU countries amounted to $1.3 billion (6.3% of the total volume), with an annual decline of 21.4%. Moreover, both imports and exports in the direction of the EU showed a decline of 19.4% and 26.3%, the volumes of which amounted to $939.7 million and $331.9 million, respectively. As a result, the share of the EAEU in exports decreased over the year to 20%, increasing in imports to 64.1%, in both cases due to Russia, and the share of the EU countries decreased both in exports to 3.8% and in imports to 8%, mainly due to Germany and the Netherlands. In particular, Armenia's foreign trade balance with the EAEU countries decreased from a positive $496.8 million to a negative $5.7 billion, and with the EU countries, the negative balance decreased from $715.8 million to $607.8 million.
In total, Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-July 2024 exceeded $20.4 billion, with an annual growth of 95%. This growth was driven by a 2.2 times increase in exports reaching $8.7 billion and a 79.1% increase in imports, reaching $11.7 billion. As a result, Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-July 2024 reached $2.9 billion, marking an 11.5% increase from the previous year.
It should be noted that the June forecasts of the IMF, the World Bank and the Central Bank of Armenia regarding the dynamics of exports and imports for 2024-2025 differ greatly. According to the CBA forecast, the dynamics of exports and imports, after almost identical growth in 2023 by 28.7-28.3%, will improve imperceptibly in 2024 - to growth of 29.6% (for exports) and 28.6-27.2% (for imports), and in 2025 will turn towards a double-digit decline in exports by 34.4-33.8% and imports by 28.6-30.6%. The IMF already predicts a 1.4% decline in exports for Armenia in 2024, with an acceleration in 2025 to 10.4%, and a strong slowdown in import growth to 2.8% in 2024 and a 5.4% decline in 2025. The World Bank predicts a strong slowdown in export and import growth for Armenia in 2024, to 5.2% and 6.7%, respectively, with a slight acceleration in 2025 to 5.6% and 7%.
According to ArmInfo analysts, none of the international structures took into account in their forecasts the factor of the colossal growth of the transit component of Armenia's foreign trade, which is based on the re-export/re-import of precious metals and stones Russia - Armenia - UAE
