ArmInfo. In Armenia's foreign trade structure, the lion's share of imports comes from Russia - 57%, while exports go to the UAE - 42.9%, compared to 25.9% and 12.9%, respectively, from a year ago.
In the overall foreign trade turnover of Armenia, the percentage of trade with Russia and the UAE has increased to 41.1% and 19.4%, respectively, up from 35.8% and 5.3% a year earlier. This is evidenced by data from the RA Statistical Committee for January-September 2024.
It should be noted that these two directions were distinguished by significant volumes of exports and imports passing through Armenia via transit operations involving precious metals and stones. Thus, the sectoral breakdown of Armenia's foreign trade for January-September 2024 reveals the dominance of precious metals and stones, accounting for 47% of imports and 66% of exports.
Customs data for the current six months show that the majority of gold and diamond exports came from the UAE (84.2% and 82.7%), while gold was primarily imported from Russia (95.9%) and diamonds from India (45.2%), Russia (21.4%) and Hong Kong (19.7%).
According to statistics, Russia leads in both total foreign trade turnover and imports. Specifically, the volume of imports between Armenia and Russia in January-September 2024 reached $7.5 billion, a 3,4 time increase over the year. The volume of exports amounted to $2.3 billion, a 15.5% decrease over the year. As a result, the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the Russian Federation reached $9.8 billion, a 99.2% year-on-year increase.
The UAE has moved up to 2nd place in foreign trade with Armenia, reaching $4.6 billion, with an annual growth rate of 6.3 times. Specifically, the volume of exports to the UAE amounted to $4.6 billion (annual growth of 6.8 times), and the volume of imports to the UAE - $55.6 million (an annual decline of 8.6%). China ranked 3rd place in foreign trade with Armenia at $2.1 billion, with an annual growth of 34.7%. Imports in this trade decreased by 4.2%, while exports increased by 3.8 times, reaching $1.2 billion and $907.8 million, respectively. As a result, the share of exports to China rose to 8.6% over the year, and the share of imports from China decreased to 8.9%. Iran maintained its 4th place in terms of foreign trade turnover with Armenia - $520.6 million, with a modest annual growth of 2.7%. Imports from Iran increased by 1.8%, and exports - by 7.7%, totaling $439.4 million and $81.2 million, respectively. Iran's share decreased in both exports to 0.8% and imports to 3.3%. Germany climbed to 5th place in terms of foreign trade turnover with Armenia at $348.8 million, despite a 29.6% annual decline.
Moreover, the same decline was observed in both imports and exports, with totals of $303.4 million and $45.4 million, respectively. Germany's share decreased in both exports to 0.4% and imports to 2.3%. As a result, the UAE became the leader in terms of export volume, displacing Russia to 2nd place and China to 3rd place. The 4th and 5th positions were taken by Iraq ($154.9 million) and Georgia ($123.7 million). In terms of imports, Russia and China still hold the first two positions, with Iran moving up to 3rd place. Germany and the USA swapped places in the 4th and 5th positions ($282.4 million).
Moreover, in the direction of Iraq, there was a 13.1% growth in exports with a significant 44.7% decline in imports. In the direction of Georgia, there was growth in both exports by 12.3% and imports by 39.2%. In the direction of the USA, exports grew by 15.3% with a decline in imports by 44.9%. Among the five leaders in foreign trade with Armenia, only the UAE maintains a positive balance - with an increase of up to $4.5 billion, while the others have a negative balance. Thus, the trade balance with Russia shifted from a positive level to a negative $5.2 billion, while Iran, China and Germany had a negative balance of $358.2 million, $259.6 million and $258 million, respectively.
In total, Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-September 2024 reached $23.7 billion, showing a 73.5% annual growth. This increase was driven by exports rising 2.1 times annually and imports by 54.2%, the volumes of which amounted to $10.6 billion and $13.1 billion, respectively. In January-September 2024, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with EAEU countries, reached $9.98 billion (42% of the total), with an annual growth of 94.4%. This increase was driven by a 3.3-fold rise in imports, while exports decreased by 15.1%, amounting to $7.6 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively. Armenia's trade with EU countries during the same period amounted to $1.7 billion (7.2% of the total), with an annual decline of 16.9%. Both imports and exports to the EU saw decreases of 14.6% and 22.7%, totaling $1.3 billion and $444.9 million, respectively. The EAEU share in exports decreased to 22.8%, over the year, while imports increased to 57.7%, largely due to Russia. The EU countries saw a decrease in both exports to 4.2% and imports to 9.5%, primarily because of the Netherlands and Germany. As a result, Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-September 2024 was $2.5 billion, decreasing by 24.2% over the year.
In particular, Armenia's foreign trade balance with the EAEU countries dropped from a positive $540.5 million to a negative $5.2 billion, while the negative balance with the EU countries decreased from $888.6 million to $805.4 million. Note that according to the September forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the growth of exports and imports, which were almost the same rates in 2023 at 28.7-28.3%, will slow down in 2024 to 24.2-26.2% (for exports) and 24-23% (for imports). In 2025, the dynamics will reverse towards a double-digit decline in exports by 31.5-29.5% and imports by 28.4-30.4%. In June, the IMF forecasted that Armenia's exports would decline by a 1.4% in 2024, with an acceleration in 2025 to 10.4%. They also expect a strong slowdown in import growth to 2.8% in 2024, with a 5.4% decline in 2025. Additionally, in June, the World Bank forecasted that Armenia's export and import growth would slow significantly in 2024 to 5.2% and 6.7%, respectively. They then anticipate a slightly acceleration in 2025 to 5.6% and 7%.
