ArmInfo.The net inflow of private transfers to Armenia in January-September 2024 accelerated its annual decline from 23.1% to 33.3%. In absolute figures it decreased from $1.3 billion to $888 million.
Additionally, for non-commercial transfers, the decline in net inflow has remained at 40% for the second year, dropping from $701.4 million to $418.3 million. The share of non-commercial transfers in the total net inflow decreased from 53% to 47% over the year (compared to 67% in 2022). This is evidenced by data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
The decline in transfer dynamics was observed in both directions: from Russia, the net inflow shifted from a 23.4% growth to a 15% decline, and from the United States, the net inflow accelerated its decline from 43.5% to 53.3%. This resulted in a net inflow of transfers from Russia totaling $ 2.1 billion at the end of the first 9 months of 2024 and from the United States at $ 74.5 million. Specifically, the inflow and outflow of transfers to Russia decreased by 14.3% and 11%, respectively (compared to growth of 29.5% and 71.3% the previous year), while in the direction of the United States both indicators showed an upward trend: the inflow shifted from a 2% decline to a 4.5% growth, and the outflow - with a slowed from 54% to 33%.
As a result, Russia's share in both the inflow and outflow decreased, while the US's increased. Russia's share in the inflow decreased over the year from 70.4% to 65%, lower than the same period in 2022 (67%), and in the outflow, which had remained at 17% for two years, decreased to 14.6%. Meanwhile, the US share in the inflow and outflow, which was 11% a year ago, has now increased to 13-14%, surpassing the 2022 level (12%) in outflow, and almost reaching 14% (in 2022) in inflow. In total, transfers to Russia for the first 9 months of 2024 amounted to $2.6 billion in inflow and $449.4 million in outflow, while transfers to the United States totaled $505.3 million in inflow and $430.8 million in outflow.
The total share of transfers to Russia and the United States over the year decreased in inflow from 82% to 78%, while slightly increasing in outflow from 28% to 29%. When broken down into inflow and outflow, the annual dynamics of transfers from all countries look like this: the inflow trend worsened from 23% growth to a 7% decline, and the outflow trend worsened from 69% growth to a 5% decline. As a result, the volume of inflow in January-September 2024 amounted to $3.96 billion (including $742.8 million of non- commercial nature), and the outflow was $3.1 billion (including $324.6 million of non-commercial nature). Moreover, non-commercial transfers experienced a double-digit decline in the inflow line - by 28% (compared to 30% a year ago), showing a deteriorating trend. In the outflow line, non-commercial transfers went from 7% growth to a 0.2% decline.
It should be noted that in 2023, the inflow of transfers from all countries amounted to $5.7 billion, with growth slowing from 2.5 times to 9.7%. The outflow was $4 billion, with growth slowing from 2.1 times to 55%, resulting in a net inflow of $1.7 billion. There was a strong slowdown in growth in both the inflow, decreasing from 2.5 times to 9.7%, and the outflow, decreasing from 2.1 times to 55%. This worsened the dynamics of the net inflow from an unprecedented 3-fold growth to a 36% decline. In 2023, Russia's share in the inflow remained at 69%, while decreasing in the outflow to 16%. The US share decreased in both the inflow and outflow to 12%.
