Armenia`s economic growth rate for January-October 2024 decreased to  8.1%

ArmInfo.In Armenia, economic activity growth in January- October 2024 slowed to 8.1% per annum  (from 9.2% in the same period of 2023). Unlike last year, the  industrial sector has become one of the growth drivers. According to  preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, this is  accompanied by continued high growth rates of exports and imports.   Although the preliminary statistical report does not provide more  detailed information, judging by the final data of the previous 9  months, the high growth of industrial production no longer comes from  the jewelry industry, which previously demonstrated growth several  times over. It is now experiencing a double-digit 26.8% decline.

In particular, the high growth of the industrial sector is now  supported to a greater extent by the production of basic metals, coke  and petroleum products. To a slightly lesser extent, it is supported  by the production of electrical equipment, furniture, woodworking  industry, and metallurgy. It is worth noting that recently the  highest growth (with a minimum volume) is recorded in the production  of coke and liquefied petroleum products (20.4 times over 9 months of  this year). Nevertheless, the production of basic metals has retained  its leading positions in the industrial sector in terms of volume  (366.7 billion drams for 9 months of this year), and has also  maintaining high growth rates (3.3 times). The food industry, which  occupies the first position, is not particularly ahead in terms of  volume (412.3 billion drams) and is growing too slowly (1.1%). 

According to preliminary statistics, the growth of economic activity  in January-October 2024 was largely attributed to the trade sector,  which experienced a slowdown in growth rates from 23.3% to 18.8%. The  construction sector also contributed to this growth, with a decrease  in annual rates from 16.4% to 15.5%.  Additionally, the industrial  sector saw a significant improvement, transitioning from a 0.5%  decline to 11.7% growth. Conversely, there was a notable slowdown in  growth in the services sector, dropping from 12.1% to 5.8%. The  energy complex showed an improvement as well, moving from a 3.5%  decline to a 2.8% growth. However, data on the agricultural sector is  not available, as it is published only in quarterly and annual  reports. In terms of absolute volume, the trade sector leads with  over 99 trillion drams ($12.7 billion) for January-October 2024. The  service sector comes in second with 2.7 trillion drams ($6.96  billion), followed by the industrial sector at 2.4 trillion ($6.1  billion.  Due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, the  construction sector occupies the fourth position with 484.5 billion  drams ($1.2 billion). 

The total volume of electricity generated in January-October 2024 was  7139.8 million kWh, with 717.4 million kWh generated in October  alone. It is worth noting that the gap between the  industrial  and  the service sectors is narrowing, with the industrial sector showing  double-digit growth, while the service sector is experiencing a  significant slowdown in growth. In October 2024 there was a  noticeable decrease in economic activity growth compared to October  2023, dropping from last year's 6% to 4.2%. In October alone, this  decline worsened to 4.6% from September's 6.6% growth.  This trend  was also observed in October 2023, transitioning from 3.4% growth to  a 1.4% decline. Additionally, in October 24, the industrial sector  saw a significant acceleration in growth from 1.6% to 10.9% mirroring  the trend from the previous year.  In annual comparisons (October  2024 to October 2023), all sectors showed an upward trend.  In  particular, the energy complex showed annual double-digit growth at  19%, the trade sector at 13.7% and the construction sector at 13.5%.  Following closely were the industrial sector at 5.3% and the service  sector at 5.2%. A year earlier, in October 2023 to October 2022, only  the energy sector experienced a decline  of 10.5%, while other  sectors were growing: the trade sector - 26.3%, the construction  sector - 13.6%, the services sector - 2.1% and the industrial sector  - 0.6%. Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-October 2024 reached 10.3 trillion drams ($26.2 billion),  accelerating the already high annual growth rate to 67.6% (up from  41.2% in the same period of 2023). 

This is due to a more pronounced acceleration of high rates of annual  growth in exports - from 38.5% to 95.1%, than imports - from 42.9% to  50.8%. The absolute value of exports amounted to 4.5 trillion drams  ($11.5 billion), and imports amounted to 5.8 trillion drams ($14.7  billion). In October 2024, compared to October 2023, a slowdown in  the growth of foreign trade turnover was noted from 19.2% to 12.9%.  This slowdown is due to a decrease in import growth from 22.4% to  6.6%, with a restrained acceleration in export growth from 14.4% to  23.1%. In October alone, the dynamics of exports and imports reversed  from a 12.3-10.4% decline to a 7.5-11.3% growth. This resulted in a  shift in the trend of foreign trade turnover from an 11.2% decline to  a 9.7% growth.

It should be noted that since 2023, the methodology for calculating  the volumes of generated electricity has changed in statistical  reports. In particular, the volumes of electricity generated by  autonomous producers are now being taken into account. Data for the  agricultural sector  are only published in quarterly and annual  statistical reports. (The average calculated exchange rate of the  dram in January-October 2024 was AMD 392.72/$1).