ArmInfo. In Armenia, the economic growth rate for January- October 2024 has decreased to 8.1% per annum (down from 9.2% in the same period in 2023). However, unlike the previous year, the industrial sector has become a key diver of growth. According to the final data from the RA Statistical Committee, this is accompanied by ongoing high growth rates in both exports and imports.
Based on the information revealed in the final statistical report, the significant increase in industrial production is no longer driven by the jewelry industry, which previously showed substantial growth, but is now experiencing a decline of 28.1%. Instead, the high growth in the industrial sector is now supported to a greater extent by the production of basic metals, coke and petroleum products, to a slightly lesser extent by the production of electrical equipment, furniture, woodworking industry, and metallurgy. Moreover, it is worth noting that the production of coke and liquefied petroleum products has recently shown the highest growth, despite having a minimum volume (20.7 times in the reporting period). Nevertheless, it is the production of basic metals that has solidified its position in the top three leaders in the industrial sector in terms of volume (395.7 billion drams). Basic metals also maintain high growth rates (2.9 times). In comparison, the food industry, which holds the first position, is not particularly ahead in terms of volume (493.8 billion drams) and is showing weak growth (3.6%).
According to the final statistics, the growth of economic activity from January to October 2024 was largely driven by the trade sector, which saw a decrease in growth rates from 23.3% to 18.8%, the construction sector - a decrease in annual growth rates from 16.4% to 15.5%. The industrial sector moved from a 0.5% decline to 11.7% growth. There was a notable slowdown in growth in the services sector, dropping from 12.1% to 5.8%. The energy complex showed positive annual dynamics shifting from a 3.5% decline to 4.6% growth. There is no data available for the agricultural sector, as they are only published in quarterly and annual reports.
According to statistics from January to October 2024, the trade sector leads with a volume of over 4.99 trillion AMD ($12.7 billion). Following closely is the service sector - 2.7 trillion AMD ($6.96 billion), the industrial sector - 2.4 trillion ($6.1 billion). The construction sector takes the fourth position, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector - 484.5 billion AMD ($1.2 billion). The volume of electricity generation in January-October 2024 amounted to 7619.3 million kWh, of which 767.8 million kWh in October alone. It is worth noting that the gap between the industrial and the service sector is becoming narrowing, as a result of the industrial sector's double-digit growth and the service sector's slowed growth. A slowdown in economic activity growth was also observed in October 2024 compared to October 2023, from last year's 6% to the reported 4.2%. In October alone, the dynamics worsened further with a 4.6% decline, compared to September's 6.6% growth (as in October 2023, from 3.4% growth to 1.4% decline).
Additionally, in October 2024, the industrial sector saw a significant acceleration in growth, jumping from 1.6% to 10.9%. The same trend was observed a year earlier in the same month, with growth shifting from a 1.5% decline to a 10.9% increase, similar to the current one. In the period from October 2024 to October 2023, all sectors demonstrated positive growth. In particular, the energy sector showed annual double-digit growth - 20.4%, the trade sector - 13.7% and the construction sector - 13.5%, followed by the industrial sector - 5.3% and the services sector - 5.2%. Comparatively, in the previous year from October 2023 to October 2022, only the energy sector was in decline (10.5%), and the rest of the sectors were growing: the trade sector - 26.3%, the construction sector - 13.6%, the services sector - 2.1% and the industrial sector - 0.6%. Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-October 2024 reached 10.3 trillion. AMD ($26.2 billion), with an acceleration of the already high annual growth rate to 67.6% (from 41.2% in the same period of 2023). This acceleration can be attributed to the substantial growth of exports, which increased from 38.5% to 95.1%, compared to imports which grew from 42.9% to 50.8%. The total value of imports was 4.5 trillion ($11.5 billion0 and exports were 5.8 trillion AMD ( $14.7 billion).
In October 2024, foreign trade turnover growth slowed from 19.2% to 12.9% to compared to October 2023. This is due to a decrease in import growth from 22.4% to 6.6%, while export growth showed a modest increase from 14.4% to 23.1%. In October alone, trend reversed with exports and imports showing growth rates of 7.5-11.3% compared to a previous decline of 12.3-10.4%. This shift resulted in foreign trade turnover changing from an 11.2% decline to 9.7% growth. It should be noted that since 2023, there have been changes in methodology for calculating the volumes of generated electricity in statistical reports. This includes accounting for electricity generated by autonomous producers. Data for the agricultural sector is only published in quarterly and annual statistical reports. (The average exchange rate of the dram in January-October 2024 was AMD392.72 /$1).
