EDB forecasts decline in Armenia`s GDP growth rate from 6% to 5.5% in 2024-2025

ArmInfo. The Eurasian  Development Bank (EDB) has revised its forecast for Armenia's GDP  growth in 2024 from the previous 7.5% to a new 6%, citing a reduced  contribution from the precious metals processing and export sector in  generating added value.

At the same time, the EDB has slightly raised its expectations for  Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from 5% to 5.5%, taking into account the  stimulating effect of budget policy on the economy. This is noted in  the December analytical report "Macroeconomic Outlook 2025-2027"  published by the EDB.  By the end of 2025, inflation is projected to  accelerate to 3.1% from 1.8% projected in 2024. This will be  supported by the recovery in global food prices, the effect of the  refinancing rate cuts over the past year and a half, and a moderate  depreciation of the dram. Outlining the key risks, the EDB notes in  its report: "The likelihood of a sharp outflow of capital and labor  and the associated economic losses is becoming an unlikely risk for  the Armenian economy. The outflow process is expected to be gradual  over time, allowing the economy to adapt to the new conditions. The  deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the region increases  the uncertainty of the forecasts of the main macroeconomic  indicators. If unfavorable scenarios occur, there will be an increase  in pro-inflationary risks, risks of weakening external demand and an  increase in the country risk premium."