ArmInfo. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has revised its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 from the previous 7.5% to a new 6%, citing a reduced contribution from the precious metals processing and export sector in generating added value.
At the same time, the EDB has slightly raised its expectations for Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from 5% to 5.5%, taking into account the stimulating effect of budget policy on the economy. This is noted in the December analytical report "Macroeconomic Outlook 2025-2027" published by the EDB. By the end of 2025, inflation is projected to accelerate to 3.1% from 1.8% projected in 2024. This will be supported by the recovery in global food prices, the effect of the refinancing rate cuts over the past year and a half, and a moderate depreciation of the dram. Outlining the key risks, the EDB notes in its report: "The likelihood of a sharp outflow of capital and labor and the associated economic losses is becoming an unlikely risk for the Armenian economy. The outflow process is expected to be gradual over time, allowing the economy to adapt to the new conditions. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the region increases the uncertainty of the forecasts of the main macroeconomic indicators. If unfavorable scenarios occur, there will be an increase in pro-inflationary risks, risks of weakening external demand and an increase in the country risk premium."
