Expert: SMR technologies are still futuristic

ArmInfo. The current state of Armenia's nuclear energy sector is similar to a well-known monologue performed by People's Artist of Russia Roman Kartsev:  yesterday there were big crayfish, but for five rubles, today there  are smaller crayfish, but for three rubles.  After extensive  discussions, the Armenian government has reached a decision on the  capacity and type of the new nuclear power plant. According to RA  Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, a political decision has been made to  construct a nuclear power plant with a small modular reactor (SMR).  RA Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Gnel  Sanosyan commented on the Armenian Cabinet's statement, noting that  the plant will have a capacity of 400-600 MW. Based on his  statements, it can be inferred that Armenia intends to build two  power units, as SMR nuclear power plants typically have units with  capacities of up to 300 MW. Meanwhile, experts in the field emphasize  the importance of a robust nuclear energy sector for Armenia, as we  approach the fifth world industrial revolution.

In an interview with ArmInfo, Gera Sevikyan, the Advisor to the  General Director of Armenian NPP CJSC, noted that the current level  of socio-economic development of humanity is being influenced by the  final stage of the fourth industrial revolution, as recognized by the  UN and other international organizations. 

This stage is characterized by automation, robotics, digitalization  of production, artificial intelligence, 3D printers, nanotechnology,  neurotechnology, and more. The outcomes of the fourth industrial  revolution are already visible, with rapid technological  developments, increased production efficiency, and enhanced autonomy  in logistics. However, initially there were concerns within the  global community regarding the potential negative impacts of these  advancements, such as deepening social stratification (with the rich  getting richer and the poor getting poorer), disappearance of certain  professions, a drastic  reduction in labor costs, rising unemployment  and, ultimately, social tension, all of which could pose a potential  threat to national stability.

To prevent these consequences, the UN General Assembly developed the  Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 as a plan "to achieve a  better and more sustainable future for all". The UN General  Assembly's final document "Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda  for Sustainable Development", was adopted by 193 UN member states,  including Armenia, and comprises 17 global goals and 169  corresponding targets. The Concept of the Fifth Industrial Revolution  was developed to achieve these goals, with a key focus on  "human-centricity" - a shift from technology to people and nature,  placing human needs at the heart of the production process. 

In the current challenging historical conditions, it is vital for  Armenia to align itself with global development trends. Both concepts  and the 17 SDGs are aimed at improving the quality of life for  populations, which varies significantly across countries. One of the  simplest and relatively objective criteria for evaluating a state's  level of development and its population's quality of life, is the  indicator of annual electricity consumption per capita.  Unfortunately, as of 2022, this indicator in Armenia stands at 2141  kW  per / person per year, which is one and a half times lower than  the global average and 10-15 times less than in countries with  advanced scientific, technical and industrial infrastructure.

Sevikyan noted that sustainable energy development is one of the main  criteria of the SDGs. The emergence of obstacles in constructing a  new nuclear unit to replace the existing one is seen as a major  threat that could disrupt the republic's energy development strategy.  The Armenian NPP, as the guarantor of the country's energy security,  plays a crucial role in ensuring Armenia's economic and political  competitiveness in the region. Therefore, abandoning nuclear energy  is not an option, as it would not only compromise Armenia's energy  security and reliability, but also put the country's essential  activities at risk.  Therefore, it is imperative to maintain the  continuous operation of the ANPP, until a new replacement nuclear is  commissioned, as this is of utmost importance for the state.

"Recognizing the need to replace the outdated ANPP that does not  fully meet current requirements, the 

Government of  Armenia has made several decisions on the construction  of a new nuclear power facility in 1983, 1998, 2009, 2011, and 2014.  However, various objective and subjective factors such as financial  constrains, seismic safety concerns following the Spitak earthquake,  communication isolation (blockade) of Armenia, and global radiophobia  after the Chernobyl disaster (and later, the Fukushima accident) have  hindered the implementation. The permanent increase in safety of the  power unit, allowed the ANPP to continue operating in the energy  system of the republic until the license expiration date (September  2016).  As the  deadline neared its conclusion, it became evident  that the new nuclear power facility's connection to the country's  energy grid, the construction of which had not even started, would  not be feasible  until 2026.  Extending the service life of power  unit No. 2 of the ANPP became a critical issue. Accordingly, the  decision by the Government of the Republic of Armenia to extend the  design service life (DSL) of power unit No. 2 at the ANPP" was  well-received by the Armenian public and, importantly, by  international organizations (IAEA, VANO, EUROATOM, etc.),'' the  specialist emphasized.

He added that due to Armenia's underdeveloped nuclear infrastructure,  challenges with funding, logistics, and access to external scientific  and technical resources, attempting to carry out this Program  independently was unlikely to be successful. Therefore, Armenia  required assistance, and the Russian side offered it.  Without their  support, completing this complex project, would have been impossible.  The Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation concluded  intergovernmental agreements (IGAs) to collaborate on the  implementation of the PSE Program and the financing of associated  work. The $270 million Russian loan and  $30 million grant matched  the estimated $300 million project cost. According to the IGAs,  project management was handed over to Rusatom Service JSC. 

The legal registration of the IGA (ratification, approval of  trans-financial procedures, tax relations, logistic schemes, etc.)  took a considerable amount of time. Consequently, project financing  was only secured in February 2016, just 7 months before the licensed  period of operation for the ANPP was due to end. It became evident  that completing the entire scope of work under the SEP Program in 7  months, a task that typically spans 8-10 years, was unfeasible. Given  this situation, in September 2016, an application for a short-term  permit to continue operating the ANPP for an upcoming fuel campaign  was submitted to the regulator, the RA Nuclear Safety Regulatory  Committee. After reviewing the comprehensive survey of power unit No.  2 of the ANPP and the  safety justifications for its operation   during the upcoming fuel campaign, the regulator issued the necessary  permit.

A similar scheme was used to ensure the continuous operation of the  ANPP after each shutdown from 2017 to 2020, until all necessary tasks  for license renewal were completed. With the updated license terms,  Unit 2 of the Armenian NPP was granted permission to operate until  September 1, 2026, at a limited thermal capacity (not exceeding 92%  of the reactor's design capacity). This allowed for the completion of  a series of activities over a five year period from 2016 to 2021,  effectively extending the operation of Unit 2 for an additional  decade. However, only 60% of the loan amount ($170 million out of  $270 million) could be utilized due to limited availability as per  the terms of the IGA. As a result, funding for  long-term projects  under the IGA Program (modernization of cooling towers, a new diesel  generator station, and annealing of the reactor vessel), which were  not directly linked to licensing, was provided through a budget loan  from the Government of the Republic of Armenia.

"During the relatively short period of implementing the PSE Program  (five years, although typically it spans 8-10 years), a significant  amount of work was accomplished. This included conducting a  comprehensive survey of over 6,500 units of equipment, replacing  several hundred units of equipment, completing a radical  modernization of 7 critical safety systems and power generation  systems (turbines, generators, capacitors, and transformers), and  providing a rationale for the remaining resources and the possible  extension of the power unit's operational lifespan.

As a result of the work carried out, the safety level of  power unit  has been significantly increased, and the electricity production by  power unit No. 2 at the ANPP has increased by 17% without an increase  in nuclear consumption fuel. These indicators, combined with the  absence of any nuclear or radiation safety violations throughout the  entire period of operation of the ANPP, demonstrate the high safety  margin and reliability of the VVER reactor units of  Russian design.  This is why similar NPPs in Russia (Kola, Novovoronezh, Balakovo),  Ukraine (Rivne, South Ukraine, Zaporozhye), the Czech Republic  (Dukovany, Temelin), Slovakia (Bohunice), Bulgaria (Kozloduy), and  Finland (Loviisa) have been operated for up to 60 years, twice as  long as originally designed.

The picture is similar to the operation of nuclear power plants in  various other projects worldwide (USA, France, Japan, China, etc.).  This general trend is fully justified from social, political,  ecological, and economic perspectives - the cost of constructing a  new power unit is much higher than the cost of extending the service  life of a power unit of the same capacity," Sevikyan said. The  specialist noted that the construction of a new nuclear power  facility in Armenia is determined by the strategic program for the  development of the country's energy sector until 2040. According to  this program it is recommended to build a new nuclear power facility  (ANPP-2) on the ANPP site to replace the currently operating ANPP  unit No. 2. Accordingly, the commissioning date for ANPP-2 has been  set until 2036. At this stage of the project implementation, it is  necessary to complete a significant portion of the preparatory  phase's most important tasks. These include establishing the  organizational and management structure,  selecting the project  specifications for ANPP-2 (type, capacity, technical characteristics,  safety level, etc.) choosing the general contractor (implementer),  obtaining licenses from the relevant state structures of the Republic  of Armenia and  more. 

To achieve this goal, the Government of the Republic of Armenia  decided to establish a separate state enterprise to oversee and  coordinate the activities of enterprises involved in the ANPP-2  construction project. After conducting an initial assessment of  global market  proposals,  interest in this topic was confirmed by  the Russian Federation, the United States, and South Korea.  The  Russian Federation (Rosatom State Corporation) submitted the most  detailed feasibility study proposal, whish was the most  comprehensive. The newly established SC RA will need to conduct a  comprehensive analysis of this and other potential proposals. The  first step is to determine the nuclear technology that will be  utilized, as it will impact the feasibility, volume, cost and  timeline of adapting the country's current nuclear infrastructure to  accommodate the selected technology.

Currently, the three primary technologies for power reactors that are   most developed and positively referenced are  pressurized water  reactors (PWR, WWER), boiling water reactors (BWR) and pressurized  heavy water reactors (PHWR). PWR/VVER technology is the most  predominant type of  nuclear power reactor globally, with over 80% of  NPPs worldwide using this technology, resulting in an annual  production of more than 14,500 reactors. Considering all factors, the  most justified choice is PWR/VVER technology, as it requires the  least modifications and additions to Armenia's nuclear  infrastructure, such as updating or creating a new regulatory  framework, constructing  or renovating production structures,  scientific and technical re-equipment,  training and retraining  personnel,  and addressing language barriers.  Currently, there are  16 VVER/PWR power units of the latest generation (3+) in operation  worldwide.  These units have safety indicators built-in that are one  and a half times higher than the minimum standards for modern reactor  plants. The probability of core damage (nuclear fuel) in these  reactors is 5x10 (under standard requirements of the IAEA, USA and EU  no more than 1x10). The level of safety achieved by these projects  virtually eliminates the release of nuclear and radioactive materials  beyond the containment of the power unit in case of any accidents,  whether caused by internal or external events, including natural or  man-made disasters. The scientific and theoretical justification,  along with practical confirmation of this level of safety, led to the  official designation of "Green Energy" for nuclear power by the  global community in February 2023. This recognition means that NPPs  are acknowledged as the most effective tool for decarbonizing  electricity production. The selection of the individual and total  capacity of the power units of the new NPP (ANPP-2) requires an  objective and detailed analysis of all aspects of the Armenian energy  system, its current status and future development prospects.

The current  electricity production level in Armenia meets the  country's needs. However there are plans to increase  production by  4.0 billion kWh/year using renewable energy sources (RES), with  excess energy to be exported. Recognizing the special significance of  nuclear energy, it is proposed that nuclear energy should become the  dominant and system-forming in Armenia's energy system. This would  mean that nuclear energy should account for at least 50% of  electricity production compared to the current 35-38%.  Even in  European countries with limited fossil fuel resources or those  geographically distant from suppliers, nuclear energy plays a  dominant role. For example, in five European countries (France,  Belgium, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary), nuclear energy accounts for  more than 50%. In eight other European countries, it makes up more  than 40% of total production. 

The capacity of ANPP-2 is determined by the current and projected  needs of the Armenian economy for electricity. Specialists have  emphasized that due to the lengthy construction period of ANPP-2 (at  least 10- 12 years from the decision-making moment) and the  guaranteed service life of modern nuclear power plants (60 years with  the potential of extension to 80-100 years), energy demand  predictions should be made for up to a century ahead. However, this  task seems unrealistic due to various unknown factors, including an  increase in electricity demand by 2036, the expected completion of  ANPP-2 construction, the transition from ground transport using  organic fuel to electric drive engines, the rapid growth of hydrogen  energy, and advancements in the motor transport industry.

Sevikyan emphasized that diversifying Armenia's economy's energy  supplies requires a significant amount of electrical capacity. He  stated that 1 kg of organic fuel can generate 12.5 kWh of  electricity. To replace the carbon fuel currently imported by  Armenia, the country will need 9.75 billion kWh of electricity. This  production will require at least 1,350 MW of electrical capacity.  Factoring in the compensation for the shut- down of ANPP (440 MW),   power grid losses (7%), and necessary load, emergency and repair  reserve capacity (5%), Armenia's  additional electrical capacity  needs post 2050 will be (1350+440 MW). Given the regional  geopolitical challenges, Armenia's isolation from transportation and  communication networks, limited cultivated lands, and  lack of  natural energy sources and powerful waterways, the country's strategy  for multi-vector development prioritizes the intensive growth of the  industrial sector based on science- intensive, energy-intensive,  labor-intensive and low-raw material production and technologies. The  economic reorientation is a mandatory condition that demands rapid  development of the energy sector. This development must guarantee  that installed capacities are available and can be redirected without  delays and additional investments to meet the evolving  needs of  the  national economy.

The specialist also noted that Armenia's projected minimum  electricity demand  for the coming decades, excluding the objectively  expected economic development of Armenia, can only be met by two or  three high-capacity NPP power units (1000-1200 MW), as the potential  of renewable energy sources (such as small hydroelectric power  plants, wind, and solar power plants) has been exhausted. In this  regard, the specialist emphasized that the hype surrounding small  modular reactors (SMR) is due to active advertising of potential  advantages, which are largely exaggerated and unsubstantiated due to  the absence of an operating facility. The commercial use of SMRs in  countries involved in such developments is not expected until the mid  of the next decade, even based on the most optimistic projections.  SMR technologies are still considered futuristic. 

Therefore, the establishment of a global market for SMRs, along with  widespread implementation and advancement of these new technologies,  is likely to be delayed for the next 20-25 years. "Today, the use of  SMR is recognized by specialists as rational in two energy  consumption sectors:  local - isolated from the energy supply system,  with one source and one or more consumers (regional), and centralized  energy supply, isolated from the energy system with several sources  and consumers. It is at least premature to talk about the use of SMR  as a system-forming, fundamental facility in Armenia's energy system  at this point," the specialist summarized.