ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity growth in January- November 2024 slowed to 7.4% per annum (from 14.4% in the same period of 2023). This is evidenced by preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, according to which the dynamics of exports and imports also began to deteriorate.
Despite the fact that the preliminary statistical report does not provide for the disclosure of more detailed information, nevertheless, judging by the final data of the previous 10 months, the high growth of industrial production no longer comes from the jewelry industry, which previously demonstrated growth several times, now finding itself in a 28.1% decline. In particular, the high growth of the industrial sector is now supported to a greater extent by the production of basic metals, coke and petroleum products, to a slightly lesser extent by the production of electrical equipment, furniture, woodworking industry, metallurgy. Moreover, it is worth noting that recently the highest growth (with a minimum volume) is recorded in the production of coke and liquefied petroleum products (20.7 times in the reporting 10 months). Nevertheless, it is the production of basic metals that has consolidated itself in the top three leaders in the industrial sector in terms of volume (395.7 billion drams), also maintaining high growth rates (2.9 times), while the food industry, which occupies the first position, is not particularly ahead in terms of volume (493.8 billion drams) and is growing too weakly (3.6%).
According to preliminary statistics, the growth of economic activity in January-November 2024 was largely due to the trade sector - with an acceleration in growth rates from 16.2% to 18%, the construction sector - with an acceleration in annual growth rates from 13.9% to 14.9%, and the industrial sector - with a slowdown in growth from 8.4% to 7.6%. A strong slowdown in growth during this period was recorded in the services sector - from 28.2% to 6.3%, as well as in the energy complex - from 16.8% to 4.5%. There are no data on the agricultural sector, since they are published only in quarterly and annual reports. According to statistics for January-November 2024, in absolute terms, the trade sector holds the lead with a volume of 5.6 trillion drams ($14.3 billion). The second place in terms of volume is occupied by the service sector - 3.03 trillion drams ($7.7 billion), the third place is occupied by the industrial sector - 2.7 trillion ($6.8 billion), and the fourth position, due to the lack of data on the agricultural sector, is occupied by the construction sector - 567.02 billion drams ($1.4 billion). The volume of electricity generation in January- November 2024 amounted to 7999.5 million kWh, of which 859.6 million kWh in November alone.
A more pronounced slowdown in economic activity growth is observed in November 2024 compared to November 2023, from last year's 13.8% to the reported 1.2%, and stagnation was observed in November alone (versus a 4.6% decline in October and a 4% decline in November 2023). Moreover, in November 2024, the dynamics of the industrial sector worsened from 10.9% growth to a 0.5% decline, while a year earlier in the same month it was possible to maintain growth, despite a slowdown in rates from 5.2% to 1.8%. On an annual basis (November 2024 to November 2023), almost all sectors, except the industrial sector, demonstrated an upward trend. In particular, the annual double-digit growth was shown by the energy sector - 21.3%, the construction sector - 11.6%, the trade sector - 11.5% and the services sector - 10.4%. The industrial sector, on the other hand, repeated last year's dynamics much more pronouncedly, deepening its decline to 19%. A year earlier, in November 2023 to November 2022, only the industrial sector was again in decline (2.3%), and the rest of the sectors were growing: the services sector - 30.9%, the trade sector - 22.1%, the energy complex - 17.3% and the construction sector - 11.3%.
Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in January-November 2024 reached 11.1 trillion drams ($28.2 billion), with a slowdown in annual growth rates to 54% (from 67.8% in the same period of 2023). This is due to a more pronounced slowdown in the annual growth rate of imports - from 63.6% to 41.5%, than exports - from 75.2% to 73.9%, the absolute value of which amounted to 6.2 trillion and 4.9 trillion drams ($15.9 billion and $12.3 billion), respectively.
At the same time, in November 2024, compared to November 2023, there was a sharp deterioration in the dynamics of foreign trade turnover from 74.5% growth to a 27.4% decline, which is due to a reversal in the trend of both exports and imports towards a decline of 35% and 21.4%, respectively (from growth of 95.8% and 63.9% a year earlier). In November alone, the dynamics of exports and imports reversed from 7.8- 14.2% growth to a 19.6-12.8% decline, as a result of which the trend of foreign trade turnover rolled back from 11.5% growth to 15.6% decline.
Since 2023, the methodology for calculating the volumes of generated electricity has changed in statistical reports, in particular, the volumes of electricity generated by autonomous producers also began to be taken into account. For the agricultural sector, data is published only in quarterly and annual statistical reports. (The average calculated exchange rate of the dram in January-November 2024 was 392.38 drams/$1).
