7.4% economic activity growth in Armenia in Jan-Nov 2024

ArmInfo. In Armenia, economic activity growth in January- November 2024 slowed to 7.4% per annum (from 14.4% in the same period of 2023). This is evidenced by preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee, according to  which the dynamics of exports and imports also began to deteriorate.

Despite the fact that the preliminary statistical report does not  provide for the disclosure of more detailed information,  nevertheless, judging by the final data of the previous 10 months,  the high growth of industrial production no longer comes from the  jewelry industry, which previously demonstrated growth several times,  now finding itself in a 28.1% decline. In particular, the high growth  of the industrial sector is now supported to a greater extent by the  production of basic metals, coke and petroleum products, to a  slightly lesser extent by the production of electrical equipment,  furniture, woodworking industry, metallurgy.  Moreover, it is worth  noting that recently the highest growth (with a minimum volume) is  recorded in the production of coke and liquefied petroleum products  (20.7 times in the reporting 10 months). Nevertheless, it is the  production of basic metals that has consolidated itself in the top  three leaders in the industrial sector in terms of volume (395.7  billion drams), also maintaining high growth rates (2.9 times), while  the food industry, which occupies the first position, is not  particularly ahead in terms of volume (493.8 billion drams) and is  growing too weakly (3.6%).

According to preliminary statistics, the growth of economic activity  in January-November 2024 was largely due to the trade sector - with  an acceleration in growth rates from 16.2% to 18%, the construction  sector - with an acceleration in annual growth rates from 13.9% to  14.9%, and the industrial sector - with a slowdown in growth from  8.4% to 7.6%. A strong slowdown in growth during this period was  recorded in the services sector - from 28.2% to 6.3%, as well as in  the energy complex - from 16.8% to 4.5%. There are no data on the  agricultural sector, since they are published only in quarterly and  annual reports. According to statistics for January-November 2024, in  absolute terms, the trade sector holds the lead with a volume of 5.6  trillion drams ($14.3 billion). The second place in terms of volume  is occupied by the service sector - 3.03 trillion drams ($7.7  billion), the third place is occupied by the industrial sector - 2.7  trillion ($6.8 billion), and the fourth position, due to the lack of  data on the agricultural sector, is occupied by the construction  sector - 567.02 billion drams ($1.4 billion). The volume of  electricity generation in January- November 2024 amounted to 7999.5  million kWh, of which 859.6 million kWh in November alone.

A more pronounced slowdown in economic activity growth is observed in  November 2024 compared to November 2023, from last year's 13.8% to  the reported 1.2%, and stagnation was observed in November alone  (versus a 4.6% decline in October and a 4% decline in November 2023).  Moreover, in November 2024, the dynamics of the industrial sector  worsened from 10.9% growth to a 0.5% decline, while a year earlier in  the same month it was possible to maintain growth, despite a slowdown  in rates from 5.2% to 1.8%. On an annual basis (November 2024 to  November 2023), almost all sectors, except the industrial sector,  demonstrated an upward trend. In particular, the annual double-digit  growth was shown by the energy sector - 21.3%, the construction  sector - 11.6%, the trade sector - 11.5% and the services sector -  10.4%. The industrial sector, on the other hand, repeated last year's  dynamics much more pronouncedly, deepening its decline to 19%. A year  earlier, in November 2023 to November 2022, only the industrial  sector was again in decline (2.3%), and the rest of the sectors were  growing: the services sector - 30.9%, the trade sector - 22.1%, the  energy complex - 17.3% and the construction sector - 11.3%.

Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-November 2024 reached 11.1 trillion drams ($28.2 billion),  with a slowdown in annual growth rates to 54% (from 67.8% in the same  period of 2023). This is due to a more pronounced slowdown in the  annual growth rate of imports - from 63.6% to 41.5%, than exports -  from 75.2% to 73.9%, the absolute value of which amounted to 6.2  trillion and 4.9 trillion drams ($15.9 billion and $12.3 billion),  respectively.

At the same time, in November 2024, compared to November 2023, there  was a sharp deterioration in the dynamics of foreign trade turnover  from 74.5% growth to a 27.4% decline, which is due to a reversal in  the trend of both exports and imports towards a decline of 35% and  21.4%, respectively (from growth of 95.8% and 63.9% a year earlier).  In November alone, the dynamics of exports and imports reversed from  7.8- 14.2% growth to a 19.6-12.8% decline, as a result of which the  trend of foreign trade turnover rolled back from 11.5% growth to  15.6% decline.

Since 2023, the methodology for calculating the volumes of generated  electricity has changed in statistical reports, in particular, the  volumes of electricity generated by autonomous producers also began  to be taken into account. For the agricultural sector, data is  published only in quarterly and annual statistical reports.  (The  average calculated exchange rate of the dram in January-November 2024  was 392.38 drams/$1).