ArmInfo. By the end of 2024, the share of precious metals and stones in Armenia's foreign trade had reached 51% (27% in 2023 and 12% in 2022). In just one year, the value of transactions rose from $5.5 billion to $15.4 billion (compared to $1.7 billion in 2022). From January to December 2024, imports and exports of precious metals and stones reached 43% and 61%, respectively, from 19% and 38% in 2023 (against 8% and 19% in 2022). This is evidenced by data from the RA Statistical Committee.
In the reporting year of 2024, products worth for $7.4 billion were imported and $8.04 billion were exported. In both cases there was a slight slowdown in the high growth rates to 2.7-2.5 times (compared to 3.3-3.2 times in 2023, against 2.8-3 times in 2022 - when this trend emerged). For comparison, it is worth noting that a sharp increase in this article and its emergence as a leading one in Armenia's foreign trade turnover beginning in 2022, accelerating noticeably in the following two years. In particular, in 2022, precious metals/stones and products made from them were exported for $989.3 million (an annual growth of 3 times), and imported for $690.8 million (an annual growth of 2.8 times). Then in 2023, there was a significant growth in exports and imports of precious metals/stones and related products, continuing and accelerating to 3.2-3.3 times with exports reaching $3.2 billion and imports reaching $2.3 billion. This trend continued into 2024, and despite some slowdown in growth, the pace remained impressive, further increasing export and import volumes.
With such a picture of the export and import of precious metals and stones, the dynamics and volumes of production in the local jewelry industry appear promising: in 2022, an increase of 51.8% - up to 42 billion drams, in 2023, a jump of 4.9 times - up to 230.9 billion drams. However, already in 2024, during January- December, the dynamics reversed, with a 32.2% decline and a significant drop in volumes to 53.2 billion drams ($ 135.4 million). According to experts, the dominance of precious metals and stones in exports and imports over these years, with low volumes of local production in the jewelry industry, already indicates re- export and re-import, which, judging by the data for January-November 2024, are still taking place.
According to customs data for the first half of 2024, the majority of diamond and gold imports came from Russia - 77% and 99.7%, respectively, and the dominant export of these precious metals and stones went to the markets of the UAE (77% diamonds and 64% gold) and Hong Kong (17% diamonds and 25% gold). A similar trend was seen at the end of 2023, but then 46.7% of diamonds and 99.2% of gold came from Russia, which were also exported to the UAE (84.6% diamonds and 71.4% gold) and Hong Kong (2.7% diamonds and 25.4% gold). In terms of mineral product export and import, there was a slowdown in growth rates in 2022 and a decline of 13.6-6.9% to $887.7 million -1.1 billion in 2023. However, in January- December 2024, exports managed to grow more significantly - by 15.1% to $1.02 billion, while imports barely reached 0.3% growth to $1.13 billion. This caused the mineral products to fail in rank, from 1st to 3rd place in both exports and imports from 2022-2024, losing out to precious metals and stones and even lagging behind machinery, equipment and mechanisms.
Exports of machinery, equipment and mechanisms for January-December 2024 exceeded $1.3 billion (showing a decline in annual dynamics from 79.6% growth to a 3% decline), and imports - $2.7 billion (a slowdown in annual growth from 42.3% to 7.1%). Exports and imports of finished food products experienced accelerated growth in 2024 from 0.3-6.6% to 6.9-16.7%, reaching $954.2 million and $737 million, respectively. In total, the volume of exports for January-December 2024 reached $13.1 billion, with a slowdown in annual growth from 55.3% to 53.1%, and the volume of imports reached $17.1 billion, also slowing in growth from 40.2% to 33.8%. This resulted in a slowdown of the annual growth of foreign trade turnover from 46% to 41.5%, with a total volume of $30.2 billion. The largest growth in foreign trade turnover is recorded in the direction of Russia (by 56.5%) and the UAE (by 2.3 times). A significant increase in imports from the Russian Federation (by 2.1 times) and exports to the UAE (by 2.4 times) is noted.
It should be noted that the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia, the IMF and the World Bank regarding exports and imports for 2024-2025 differ greatly. According to the Central Bank's expectations, in 2024 the growth of exports and imports will slow down imperceptibly - from the same real growth in 2023 by 30.7-30.2% to 26.5-28.3% (for exports) and 27.8-25.7% (for imports). In 2025 the dynamics will turn towards a decline: by 25.3-16.3% (for exports) and by 13.9-20.7% (for imports). The IMF predicts that Armenia's exports will enter a 1.4% decline already in 2024, with an acceleration in 2025 to 10.4%, while expecting a strong slowdown in import growth to 2.8% in 2024 and a 5.4% decline in 2025. The World Bank, in turn, predicts a strong slowdown in export and import growth in Armenia in 2024 to 5.2% and 6.7%, with an imperceptible acceleration in 2025 to 5.6% and 7%.
