Diamond, gold transactions significantly dropped, leading to a decrease in Armenia`s foreign trade turnover

ArmInfo. In Armenia's foreign  trade, transactions involving precious metals and stones have been  declining since 2025, totaling 20% ($558.2 million)  in  January-February compared to 61.6% ($3.6 billion) a year earlier.  This category of goods has been the main factor contributing to the  worsening annual dynamics of the country's foreign trade turnover,  which has dropped from 200% growth to a 52% decline. According to   data from the RA Statistical Committee, in January- February 2025,  the share of imports and exports of precious metals and stones in the  total trade turnover decreased to 13.5% and 31.1%, respectively,  compared to 55% and 70% in the same period of the previous year. In  terms of volume, during the reporting period, these products were  imported for $234.9 million and exported for $323.3 million: their  import decreased by 86.7%  and export by 82.1% over the year, 

For comparison, we observe a sharp increase in this article and its  emergence as a dominant player in Armenia's foreign trade beginning  already in 2022 and accelerating  noticeably in the following two  years.  In  2022, exports of precious metals/stones and products made  from them  reached $989.3 million ( a threefold increase from the  previous year), while imports totaled $690.8 million (a 2.8 time  increase). In 2023, there was a significant growth in both exports  and imports of these products, with numbers increasing to 3.2-3.3  times, reaching export volumes of up to $3.2 billion and imports of  up to $2.3 billion. This trend continued into 2024, with a slight  slowdown in growth, but still impressive increases in  exports and  imports. 

However, since 2025, the volume of transactions involving precious  metals/stones has been declining at an impressive rate. This decline  has worsened the annual dynamics of export/ import volumes, shifting  from impressive growth to a notable decline (from an increase of  8.9-7.3 times in January-February 2024 to a decline of 82.1-86.7% in  January-February 2025). Despite this, production volumes in the  jewelry industry have remained relatively low. In 2022 it was 42  billion drams (an increase of 51.8%), for 2023 - 230.9 billion drams  (a jump of 4.9 times), and for 2024 - 53.2 billion drams or $ 135.4  million (a decline of 32.2%). This downward trend continued in 2025,  with volumes in January-February decreasing by 69.1% per annum (to  3.5 billion drams), while a year in the same period there was a jump  of 11.8 times (to 119.1 billion drams). Experts believe that the   dominance of precious metals and stones three years ago, couples with  low production volumes in the jewelry industry,  indicated a sharp  increase in re-exports and re- imports. This trend continued into  2024. However,  from 2025 onwards,  conducting such transactions in  the same volume became impossible due to the settlement of the issue  of customs duties on jewelry products within the EAEU.

Since 2020, the Russian Federation has proposed to the EEC more than  three times to eliminate the import customs value of colored precious  stones and fine-cut diamonds up to 0.2 carats. However, the issue  remains unsolved as Armenia has blocked the zeroing of duties. As a  result of the import customs duty on precious stones, it has been  more cost-effective to import finished jewelry from third countries  that are not members of the EAEU rather than  produce it within the  union. The import duty rate on finished jewelry is lower than the  rates on precious stones (10-15%) for production. However, since  2025, this <high-yield> effect has dissipated. Russia has eliminated  duties on the import of jewelry from the UAE. 

The actual volumes of re-export and re-import of precious metals and  stones are evidenced by Armenia's customs data. In the first half of  2024, diamonds and gold were mainly  imported  from Russia (77% and  99.7%, respectively) and then exported primarily to the UAE (77%  diamonds and 64% gold) and Hong Kong (17% diamonds and 25% gold). A  similar trend was  seen at the end of 2023, with 46.7% of diamonds  and 99.2% of gold coming from Russia and being exported to the UAE  (84.6% diamonds and 71.4% gold) and Hong Kong (2.7% diamonds and  25.4% gold). According to statistics, despite a significant decrease  in transactions involving precious metals and stones, this article in  exports retained its lead, while losing its top spot in imports. 

It is worth noting that the once traditionally dominant export and  import items - mineral products and finished food products, have now  been surpassed by precious metals and machinery, equipment and  mechanisms. They haven't been able to regain their leadership in  foreign trade. The decline in transactions with precious metals and  stones that has been occurring for some times allows us to assume  that mineral products and finished food products may soon reclaim  their positions in the market.

In  terms of the export and import of mineral products, there was a  slowdown in growth rates in 2022 followed by a decline of 13.6-6.9%  in 2023. However, both exports (by 15.1%) and imports (by 0.3%) were  able to grow in 2024. In January-February 2025, opposite dynamics  began to be observed again, with import growth at 5.5% and export  decline at 14.9% to $220.9 million and $125.6 million, respectively.  This indicates an acceleration of import growth (from 1.5%) and a  deterioration in the export trend (from 17.6% growth) compared to the  previous year. This shift in mineral products in exports to the 4th  position (now inferior not only to precious metals and stones, but  also to machinery/equipment and finished food products). At the same  time, mineral products remained in 3rd place in imports, after the  leading categories of "machinery, equipment and mechanisms" and  "precious metals and stones," which dropped to 2nd place.

Exports of machinery, equipment and mechanisms in January-February  2025 exceeded $200.7 million, while imports amounted to $411.3  million. The annual dynamics of these indicators worsened:  exports  went from a 38.5% growth to a 18.6% decline, and  imports went  from  a 20.2% growth to a 4% decline.  Machinery, equipment and mechanisms  took the lead in imports, as the previously leading precious  metals/stones dropped significantly in volume. In exports they  remained in 2nd place, now slightly behind the  precious  metals/stones. Exports and imports of finished food products improved  in annual dynamics, with exports recovering from a 9.3% decline to a  43.2% growth, and imports accelerating growth from 12.6% to 28%. The  volume of finished products  in January-February 2025 reached $165.6  million (3rd position), while imports reached $98.4 million (5th  position), respectively. 

The volume of exports for January-February 2025 exceeded $1.04  billion, showing a reversal in annual dynamics from a 2.6-fold growth  to a 59.7% decline. The volume of imports also exceeded $1.74  billion, with  annual dynamics deteriorating from a 73.2% growth to a  45.8% decline. As a result, the volume of foreign trade turnover fell  by 52% year-on-year (compared to a 2-fold increase the previous  year), amounting to $2.8 billion in January-February 2025. Moreover,  in the country breakdown, a strong deterioration in the annual  dynamics of foreign trade turnover is recorded for the leading  countries: Russia (from a 2.2-fold increase to a 62.1% decline), the  UAE (from an 8.2-fold increase to an 80% decline), and China (from an  84.5% increase to a 22% decline). Imports from the Russian Federation  fell by 74.8% and exports fell  12.1%. In the case of the UAE, there  was an 81.1% decline in exports accompanied by an 82.1% increase in  imports. Similarly, exports to China declined by 75.9%  while imports  increased by 41.6%. 

The foreign trade turnover between Armenia and the EU continued to  decline, but at a slower rates (19% to 7.5%) compared to the previous  year. In January-February 2025, it amounted to $298.6 million. This  was due to a slowdown in the annual decline in both exports and  imports from 26.8-15.7% to 12.7-5.7%, the volumes of which amounted  to $74.2 million and $224.4 million, respectively. The foreign trade  turnover between Armenia and the EAEU worsened in annual dynamics  from a 2.1-fold increase to a 61.5% decline, amounting to $1.01  billion in January-February 2025. This was mainly due to a  significant drop in imports by 74.5% (compared to a 3.5-fold increase  the previous year) and an acceleration in the decline of exports from  0.7% to 12.7%. Export volumes  were $527.8 million while import  volumes were $481.8 million. 

It should be noted that the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia  (CBA), the IMF and the WB regarding exports and imports for 2025  differ greatly. According to the CBA's expectations, after almost  identical growth of exports and imports in 2024 by 35.6-31.4%, in  2025 the foreign trade turnover will be in decline.  Accordingly, the  volume of exports will decrease by 19.8-24% and imports by  19.7-22.8%. The IMF also forecasts a decline in both exports and  imports for Armenia in 2025, but by a more modest 10.4% and 5.4%,  respectively. The WB, unlike the CBA and the IMF, forecasts only a  slowdown in the growth rates of both exports and imports for Armenia  in 2025 to 5.6% and 7%, respectively.