WB revises GDP growth for Armenia down in 2025 

ArmInfo. The World Bank (WB) has worsened its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from the previous 5% to an updated 4% (from the actual 5.9% in 2024), expecting some acceleration in 2026 to 4.2% (against the previously  announced 4.6%). This is noted in the April WB economic review for the Europe and Central Asia region "Accelerating growth through entrepreneurship, technology, and innovation".

For the South Caucasus (SC) region as a whole, the forecast has been worsened from the previous 3.9% to an updated 3.6% (from the actual 5.7% in 2024), with a slowdown in 2026 to 3.4%. Moreover, in both Georgia and Azerbaijan, GDP growth will also slow down in 2025 to 5.5% and 2.6%, respectively (from the actual 9.4% and 4.1% in 2024), with a further slowdown in 2026 to 5% in Georgia and 2.4% in  Azerbaijan. The World Bank explains the slowdown in economic growth in the South Caucasus in 2025- 2026 by the fact that domestic demand, trade and the inflow of remittances will stabilize in Armenia and Georgia, while oil production will decrease in Azerbaijan.

For the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, the World Bank has downgraded its economic growth forecast from the previous 2.6% to an updated 2.5% (versus the actual 3.6% in 2024), expecting the growth rate to remain at 2.5% in 2026.

Among the EAEU countries, in addition to Armenia, the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded for Russia - from the previous 1.6% to an updated 1.4% (versus the actual 4.1% in 2024), and for Kazakhstan - from the previous 4.7% to an updated 4.5% (versus the actual 4.8% in 2024). At the same time, the economic growth forecast  for 2025 has been improved for Kyrgyzstan - from the previous 4.5% to an updated 6.8% (against the actual 9% in 2024) and for Belarus - from the previous 1.2% to an updated 2.2% (against the actual 3.9% in 2024). For 2026, the WB predicts that GDP growth rates in these countries will continue to slow down: in Russia - to 1.2%, in Belarus - also to 1.2%, in Kazakhstan - to 3.6%, in Kyrgyzstan - to 5.5%. It  is noteworthy that the World Bank expects the highest GDP growth in the Europe and Central Asia region as a whole in 2025 in Kyrgyzstan (6.8%), and in 2026 in Uzbekistan (5.9%), while the minimum GDP growth in 2025 will be in Moldova (0.9%) and in 2026 in Russia and Belarus (the same 1.2%).

Economic growth in Armenia accelerated to 12.6% in the turbulent year of 2022, which turned out to be the highest rate in the entire region of Europe and Central Asia. Then, Armenia's GDP growth began to slow down - to 8.3% in 2023 and to 5.9% in 2024, and this was already the second position in terms of growth rates: Kyrgyzstan was in the lead in 2023 (9%), and Georgia (9.4%) in 2024.

The International Monetary Fund also updated its forecast, worsening expectations for Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from the previous 4.9% to an updated 4.5%. According to its March forecast, the Central Bank of Armenia expects either an acceleration of GDP growth to 7% or a slowdown to 4.5% in 2025 (depending on the inflation trajectory), but  predicts a slowdown in economic growth to 4.7-4.1% in 2026.  The draft budget for 2025 envisages GDP growth of 5.1%. According to actual statistics, Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 slowed to 5.9% (after a slowdown in 2024 to 8.3% from 12.6% in 2023), exceeding 10.127 trillion drams ($26 billion).