Armenia`s foreign trade turnover  significantly decreased due to   sharp decline in  export and import of diamonds and gold

ArmInfo. In Armenia's foreign trade, transactions involving precious metals and stones have seen a  significant  decline since 2025. In January-April, these transactions amounted to 25.5% ($1.6 billion) of the total, compared to 67% ($8.9 billion) the previous year.

This decline in this category of goods has had a major impact on the annual dynamics of the country's  foreign trade turnover, which has dropped from a 2.4-fold increase to  a 52.9% decline. According to  data from the RA Statistical  Committee, the share of imports and exports of precious metals and  stones in the total trade turnover fell to 19.2% and 35.7% in  January-April 2025,  compared to 60.1% and 75.2% in the same perios  last year.

During the reporting period, these products were imported for $740.4  million and exported for $863.3 million: over the year, their imports  fell by 82.9%, and exports - by 81.2%.

For comparison, it is worth noting that a sharp increase in this  particular article and its emergence as a dominant in Armenia's  foreign trade began to be observed already in 2022. This trend  accelerated more and more noticeably in the following two years. In  2022, precious metals/stones and products made from them were  exported for $989.3 million (with an annual growth of 3 times), and  imported for $690.8 million (showing an annual growth of 2.8 times).  In 2023, the significant growth in exports and imports of precious  metals/stones and products made from them not only continued, but  also accelerated to 3.2-3.3 times.  Export volumes reached up to $3.2  billion and imports reached up to $2.7 billion. This trend continued  in 2024, with some slowdown in growth, but still impressive (2.5-2.7  times), further increasing export and import volumes to $8 billion  and $7.4 billion, respectively. However, starting in 2025, the  volumes of transactions involving precious metals/stones began to  decline,  at an impressive pace. This decline worsened the annual  dynamics of export and import volumes, shifting from impressive  growth to a significant decline (from growth by 9-10.8 times in  January-April 2024 to a decline of 81.2-82.9% in January-April 2025).  Production volumes in the jewelry industry continue remain relatively  modest: for 2022 - 42 billion drams (an increase of 51.8%), for 2023  - 230.9 billion drams (a jump of 4.9 times), for 2024 - 53.2 billion  drams or $ 135.4 million (a decline of 32.2%). This downward trend  continued into 2025, as evidenced by the decline in volumes in  January-April by 73.6% per annum (to 6.8 billion drams or $ 17.3  million), which was already evident a year ago during the same period  (with a decline of 3.8% to 21.7 billion drams or $ 54.3 million).

According to experts, the increase in exports and imports of precious  metals and stones three year ago, along with low production volumes  in the jewelry industry, indicated a rise in re-exports and  re-imports.  This trend continued in 2024.  However, since 2025,  conducting such transactions at the previous volume has become  impossible due to the resolution of the issue of customs duties on  jewelry products within the EAEU. It is known that since 2020, the  Russian Federation has proposed to the EEC more than three times to  zero out the import customs value for colored precious stones and  small-sized diamonds up to 0.2 carats.  This issue was never resolved  as Armenia blocked the zeroing of duties. The import customs duty on  precious stones made it more profitable to import finished jewelry  products from non-EAEU countries rather than produce them on the  territory of the union. 

The import duty rate on finished jewelry is lower than the rates on  precious stones (10-15%) for their production. However, since 2025,  this "high-yield" effect has been lost. Russia has zeroed out duties  on the import of jewelry from the UAE. The actual volumes of  re-export and re-import of precious metals and stones are supporte by  the customs data of Armenia. According to this data, in the first  half of 2024, diamonds and gold imported mainly from Russia (77% and  99.7%, respectively) and then mainly exported to the UAE (77%  diamonds and 64% gold) and Hong Kong (17% diamonds and 25% gold). A  similar trend was observed at the end of 2023, with 46.7% of diamonds  and 99.2% of gold coming from Russia, and then being exported to the  UAE (84.6% of diamonds and 71.4% of gold) and Hong Kong (2.7% of  diamonds and 25.4% of gold).

According to statistics, despite a significant drop in transactions  with precious metals and stones, this article still maintains its  leadership in exports, but has lost its top spoty in imports. It is  worth noting that the traditionally dominant export and import items  - mineral products and finished food products, have lost their  positions to precious metals and machinery, equipment and mechanisms.  However, they still cannot regain their leadership in foreign trade.  The duration of the decline in transactions with precious metals and  stones suggests that in the short term, mineral products and finished  food products will regain their positions. In terms of the export and  import of mineral products, there was  a slowdown in growth rates in  2022 and a decline of 13.6-6.9% in 2023. However, both exports (by  15.1%) and imports (by 0.3%) were able to grow in 2024. Yet, in  January-April 2025, opposite dynamics began to be observed again -  import growth by 4.4% and export decline by 1.3% to $392.3 million  and $307.4 million, respectively, which, compared to the dynamics of  a year ago. This indicates a deterioration in export dynamics (from  19.3% growth) and a restrained acceleration in import growth (from  1.4%). As a result,  mineral products have shifted in exports to the  4th position (now trailing not only to precious metals and stones,  but also to machinery/equipment and finished food products). 

Mineral products maintained the 3rd position in imports, following  the leading "machinery, equipment and mechanisms" and "precious  metals and stones" which fell to the 2nd position. Exports of  machinery, equipment and mechanisms for January-April 2025 totaled  $402.6 million, with imports amounting to $804.8 million. The annual  dynamics of these indicators worsened: with exports declining from  3.3% to 5%, and imports growing at a slower rate of  0.1%  compared  to 0.3%. Machinery, equipment and mechanisms now lead in imports, due  to a significant drop in precious metals/stones. In exports, they  remain in the 2nd place, with a volume not far behind the leading  category.

Exports and imports of finished food products showed improvement in  annual dynamics, with exports recovering from a 6.9% decline to a  34.8% growth, and imports with a pronounced acceleration in growth  from 6.5% to 31.4% In January-April 2025, the volume of exports  reached $348.6 million (3rd position) and  imports reached $235.2  million (4th position), respectively. In total, the volume of exports  for January- April 2025 amounted to $2.4 billion, marking a shift  from a 2.8-fold growth to a 60.3% decline. The volume of imports  amounted to $3.9 billion, also with a deterioration in the annual  dynamics from a 2.1- fold growth to a 46.5% decline. As a result, the  volume of foreign trade turnover decreased by 52.9% year- on-year  (against a 2.4-fold increase a year ago), amounting to $6.3 billion  in January-April 2025.  Notably, leading countries such as  Russia,  the UAE and China  experienced  a strong deterioration in the annual  dynamics of foreign trade turnover: Russia from a 3.1-fold increase  to a 62.5% decline, the UAE from a 7.3-fold increase to a 74.4%  decline, and China from a 61.1% increase to a 26.1% decline.   Specifically, trade with the Russian Federation saw  both imports (by  73.3%) and exports (by 6.8%) decline, trade with the UAE, a 75.2%  decline in exports was accompanied by a 72.4% increase in imports,  and with China, a 73.4% decline in exports was accompanied by a 36.2%  increase in imports. 

It is worth noting that the foreign trade turnover between Armenia  and the EU reached 4.8% growth (up from a 24.3% decline a year ago),  exceeding $729.3 million in January-April 2025. This was due to the  improvement in the annual dynamics of imports from a 25% decline to  6.9% growth and a strong slowdown in the decline in exports from  22.3% to 1.2%. Import  volumes  amounted to $548.9 million and $180.4  million, respectively. The foreign trade turnover between Armenia and  the EAEU worsened in annual dynamics going from a 3-fold growth to a  61.5% decline, amounting to $2.3 billion in January-April 2025. This  was due to a significant drop in imports by 73% (compared to a  5.4-fold growth the previous year) and exports also experienced a  slowdown in growth rates from 19.8% to 5.8%. Import volumes were $1.3  billion and $960.7 million, respectively. 

Note that the forecasts of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), the IMF  and the WB regarding exports and imports for 2025 differ greatly.  According to the expectations of the CBA (March forecast), after  almost equal growth of exports and imports in 2024 by 31.4%-35.6, in  2025 the foreign trade turnover will be in decline. Accordingly,  exports will decrease by 19.8-24% and imports by 19.7-22.8%. The IMF  in its April forecast also predicted a decline in both exports and  imports for Armenia in 2025, but by a more modest 10.4% and 5.4%,  respectively. Unlike the CBA and the IMF, the WB's earlier forecast  (November) predicted a sharp slowdown in Armenia's foreign trade  growth in 2025, with exports to 5.6% and imports to 7%.