ArmInfo. The share of Armenia's top five trading partners-Russia, China, the UAE, Iran, and Germany-decreased in January-August 2025 to a combined 64% of total turnover, amounting to $8.3 billion in absolute terms (compared to $16.2 billion, or 74%, a year ago).
Of these, four saw a year-on-year decline in volume: Russia by 51.3%, China by 11%, the UAE by 69.9%, and Germany by 5.3%. A year ago, Russia, the UAE, and China demonstrated significant growth, while Germany experienced a more pronounced decline. Iran, meanwhile, managed not only to maintain growth but also to accelerate its annual growth rate from 0.9% to 5.3%. According to data from the RA Statistics Committee, the significant decline in foreign trade between Russia and the UAE with Armenia is due to the elimination of the re- export and re-import of diamonds and gold.
Overall, Armenia's foreign trade with the EAEU fell by 49.9% in January-August 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 (versus doubling the year before) to $4.7 billion, while with the EU, it grew by 5.6% (versus a 19.2% decline the year before) to $1.6 billion. Moreover, among the EAEU countries, Russia recorded a significant decline, while most EU countries, including the Netherlands, France, Romania, Austria, Spain, Slovakia, Finland, Italy, Poland, Hungary, and Sweden, chose to increase their trade. This change in annual dynamics reduced the EAEU's share of Armenia's foreign trade from 42.9% to 36.5% (due to the Russian Federation, from 42% to 34.8%), while the EU's share increased from 6.8% to 12.2%.
Armenia's top five trading partners-Russia, China, the UAE, Iran, and Germany- generated foreign trade volumes of $4.5 billion, $1.7 billion, $1.3 billion, $481.7 million, and $297.3 million, respectively, for January-August 2025. In particular, import dynamics for Russia worsened from a significant increase to a significant 63.3% decline (to $2.7 billion), while exports lingered in decline, slowing from 19.5% to 7.9% (to $1.8 billion). In the direction of China, the deterioration of the export dynamics from a several-fold growth to a 48.7% decline was accompanied by the exit of the import dynamics from a 4.5% decline to a 19.9% growth, the values of which amounted to $430.6 million and $1.2 billion, respectively. In the direction of the UAE, also the deterioration of the export dynamics from a several-fold growth to a 70.8% decline was accompanied by an improvement in the import dynamics from a 12.9% decline to an 18.9% growth, the values of which amounted to $1.3 billion and $50.8 million, respectively. In the direction of Iran, in parallel with the exit of the import dynamics from a decline to 9.4% growth, a deterioration in the export trend was observed from 6.8% growth to a 16.6% decline, the values of which amounted to $420.8 million and $60.9 million, respectively. In the direction of Germany, the exit of exports from a moderate double-digit decline to a significant The 77.4% growth was accompanied by a slowdown in the decline in imports from 29.9% to 17.4%, the values of which amounted to $71.4 million and $225.9 million, respectively.
The top five export destinations are Russia, the UAE, China, Iraq ($229.1 million, up 72.4%), and Switzerland ($97.5 million, up 25.1%). The top five import destinations are Russia, China, Iran, Italy ($255.3 million, up 5.7%), and Germany.
It's worth noting that of these destinations, Russia and the UAE have been the most significant exporters and importers through Armenia in the past two years, via gold and diamond transit operations. According to customs data for 2024, the lion's share of diamond and gold imports came from Russia-73% and 99.4%, respectively-while the UAE accounted for the majority of these precious metals and stones (74.8% diamonds and 70.2% gold). A nearly identical picture emerged based on the results of 2023, but back then, 46.7% of diamonds and 99.2% of gold came from Russia, which were also primarily exported to the UAE (84.6% of diamonds and 71.4% of gold). However, the current sectoral breakdown of Armenia's foreign trade (statistics for January-August 2025) already indicates a significant decline in the share of precious metals and stones to 18% of imports and 32% of exports (from 50% and 66%, respectively, a year ago). This is because, starting in 2025, conducting such transactions at the previous volume became impossible due to the settlement of customs duties on jewelry within the EAEU and Russia's elimination of duties on jewelry imports from the UAE.
Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-August 2025 totaled $12.9 billion, a 41.1% year-on-year decline (compared to 79.6% growth a year ago). Specifically, a deterioration in dynamics was observed in both exports and imports, with volumes declining between 48.8% and 34.9% (compared to 2.1-fold and 59.3% growth a year ago), respectively, to $5 billion and $7.9 billion.
Armenia's negative foreign trade balance for January-August 2025 increased by 22% year-on-year to $2.9 billion, of which $717.2 million and $796.1 million were negative balances with the EAEU and EU countries, with a significant decline for the former and a slight increase for the latter. A significant negative balance is also recorded in foreign trade with China this time - $800.3 million (a fourfold increase year-on-year). Among the EAEU countries, Russia has a significant negative balance - $804.6 million (a 6.5-fold decrease year-on-year). A fourfold decrease is also recorded in the positive trade balance with the UAE, to $1.2 billion.
The Central Bank of Armenia, in its September updated forecast, predicted that after nearly equal growth in exports and imports in 2024 of 35.6-31.4%, exports would decline by 30.4-36.8% and imports by 32.1-32.7% in 2025, with growth in 2026 of 2.7-4.4% and 3.1-3.4%. In its April 2025 forecast, the IMF predicted a more modest decline in Armenia's foreign trade: exports by 10.4% and imports by 5.4%. The World Bank has not yet updated its 2025 foreign trade forecast for Armenia, but in early November, it voiced expectations of a sharp slowdown in export growth to 5.6% and imports to 7%.
