ArmInfo. Armenia is in a good position in terms of high economic growth and low inflation, as stated by RA Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan during a November 4 press conference dedicated to the decision to once again keep the refinancing rate at 6.75%.
He noted that the recent significant increase in inflation, to 3.7% per annum in September (with a target of 3%, +/- 1 percentage point), was primarily due to supply-side factors. "As you know, central banks are somewhat reluctant to respond to demand-side factors, as the central bank's primary function is to regulate supply-side inflation." When asked about the Ministry of Finance's forecast for the GDP growth in 2025 at 7%, Galstyan responded that financial market participants expect 5.2% growth (according to the Central Bank of Armenia's September updated forecast for 2025, the GDP growth is expected to be in the range of 5.8-5.7% - Ed.).
It should be noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its October forecast improved its expectations for Armenia's GDP growth in 2025 from the previous 4.5% to an updated 5%, with the rate accelerating to 5.5% in 2026. By the end of 2025, according to the IMF's forecast, inflation will remain at the target threshold (3%, +/- 1 percentage point). The IMF attributes risks to this forecast primarily to the uncertainty associated with ongoing global trade tensions and a potential slowdown in economic growth among trading partners, as well as regional geopolitical risks. In its April forecast, the World Bank lowered its GDP growth expectations for Armenia in 2025 from the previous 5% to an updated 4%, with the rate accelerating to 4.2% in 2026.
According to the RA Statistics Committee, Armenia's GDP growth, after accelerating in 2022 from 5.8% to 12.6%, began to slow in 2023 to 8.3% and then to 5.9% in 2024, amounting to 10.2 trillion drams (approximately $26 billion) in absolute terms. The GDP deflator index also began to decline, after increasing from 106.9% to 108% in 2022, to 103.1% in 2023 and to 101.4% in 2024. According to statistical data for January-September 2025, economic activity growth in Armenia amounted to 7.6% y/y (compared to 8.7% a year ago), with the construction sector, services, and the agricultural sector acting as growth drivers, while the industrial sector was in decline and a strong slowdown in growth was noted in the trade sector.
