ArmInfo. Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan's recent statements in the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia regarding the national debt are, at the very least, misleading. Economist and former head of the State Revenue Committee (SRC) of the Republic of Armenia, David Ananyan, shared his assessment.
"When the minister says that 'the debt has not doubled, but increased by 80%,' he either doesn't understand basic arithmetic or is simply trying to deceive the public," Ananyan wrote on social media.
In particular, fact #1: The national debt has doubled in dollar terms and increased by 66% in dram terms. Thus, in 2017, the public debt amounted to 3.28 trillion drams or 6.77 billion US dollars (Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came to power as a result of the 2018 Velvet Revolution - ed.); in September 2025, it was 5.43 trillion drams (14.20 billion US dollars). This represents a 66% increase in drams and a 2.1-fold increase in dollars, due to the strengthening of the dram, which formally softened the dram indicator. Thus, the expert asserts, the debt not only doubled but also became the main "breathing apparatus" of the Armenian budget.
Fact #2. The sharp increase in domestic debt is the result of the minister's work. "Over the past two years, domestic debt has increased by more than 630 billion drams, and for the first time, its share has exceeded foreign debt: 51.4% of domestic debt versus 48.6% of foreign debt." This isn't a success, but rather a clear indication that external credit markets have been closed to Armenia, and the government has begun borrowing "from within, from its own banks," Ananyan notes.
Fact #3: Domestic debt is more expensive than external debt. For years, external loans were attracted at 2- 3%. Today, treasury bonds are attracted at 8-10%. What the minister calls "stabilization" actually means the state is borrowing from its citizens at double the rate. Today, the budget is paying more to cover its own deficit.
Fact #4: External debt hasn't decreased; it's become unaffordable. "The minister says: 'The external debt has decreased.' However, this doesn't mean it's been repaid. We simply can no longer attract new loans. Armenia's creditworthiness has declined, and the trust of international financial institutions has diminished. In other words, debt reduction isn't a success, but rather credit isolation," the expert points out.
Fact #5. Due to the strengthening of the dram, the debt formally appears small. Ananyan points out that the dram has strengthened in recent years, falling from 522 drams per dollar to 382 drams per dollar. Therefore, presenting the debt in dollars artificially understates the figures. But we repay the debt (domestic debt) in drams, not dollars. "Conclusion: This is not debt stability, this is a debt impasse. External loans have become unavailable, the domestic market is overloaded with government bonds, businesses seem deprived of credit resources, and the state borrows to survive.
Against this backdrop, the minister's words about "sustainable debt" sound less like a report and more like an attempt at self-justification.
Public debt cannot be measured in billions alone. It is measured by responsibility, trust, and commitment to the future.
And if this government has turned debt into a means of survival, then it has not "stabilized" the debt, but rather stabilized its own irresponsibility,> concludes David Ananyan. As a reminder, according to the draft 2026 state budget, Armenia's public debt will increase by 695 billion drams ($1.82 billion) by the end of 2025, reaching 5 trillion 820 billion drams, or 52.9% of GDP. By the end of 2026, it will reach 6 trillion 569 billion drams (approximately $17 billion, or 382.61 drams per dollar), or 55% of GDP. The share of foreign currency debt will also continue to increase. In 2026, 1 trillion 053 billion drams will be required for repayment and servicing of the public debt, of which 629.8 billion drams will be debt repayments and 423.2 billion drams will be interest payments.
