Annual inflation in Armenia continues to accelerate, not exceeding  targets

ArmInfo.  Compared to November 2024, higher inflation of 3.1% was recorded in the Armenian consumer market in November 2025 (compared to 1.4% a year ago),  driven largely by rising prices for food products and services in  transportation, tourism, and beauty salons.  According to statistical  data for the current year, annual inflation has accelerated month  after month, yet remains within the target threshold of 3% with an  acceptable deviation range of +/- 1 percentage point.  Recall, this  new inflation target will be in effect from 2025, while prior to  that, a higher 4% target (with an acceptable deviation range of +/-  1.5 percentage points) had been in effect for many years.

According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia,  inflation for the first 11 months of 2025 was  2% (compared to last  year's inflation of 0.4% for the same period). This increase was  primarily due to a more significant increase in the prices of  services than food products, as well as the rise in the prices of  non-food items. In November of this year alone, a lower inflation  rate of 0.6% was recorded (compared to 1.3% in the same month a year  ago), driven by a less pronounced increase in food prices - by 1.2%  (compared to 2.8% in November 2024). Additionally, there was   a  sligh increase in non-food prices - by 0.5% (compared to 0.2% in  November 2024) and the same decrease in service tariffs as a year ago  - by 0.1%. In Yerevan, consumer prices increased by 0.7% in November  of this year, compared to a 1.3% increase in November 2024.

Over the 11 months of this year, a 2% inflation was caused by a more  noticeable increase in prices for services by 2.9%, compared to food  and non-food products which increased by 1.9% and 0.9%, respectively.  The previous year saw an imperceptible inflation of 0.4% over the 11  months, resulting from a decrease in the price of non-food products  by 2.1%, while prices for services and food products increased by  2.5% and 0.1%, respectively. In January-November 2025, compared to  the same period in 2024, inflation of 3.3% was recorded (against  inflation of 0.2% a year ago),  as a result of an increase in prices  for food products by 5.1% (against a decrease of 1.6% a year ago),  services - by 3% (the same as a year ago), and unchanged prices for  non-food products (against a decline of 0.7% a year ago). In November  2025 to November 2024, inflation of 3.1% was due to a 4.1% increase  in food prices and a 2.9% increase in services, with a less  noticeable 1.2% increase in non-food prices. A year earlier, in  November 2024 to November 2023, inflation was low at 1.4%, driven by  a 2.1% decrease in non-food prices, while prices for services and  food increased by 3% and 1.9%, respectively.

Almost all food products are rising in price. The most significant  price increases year-on-year (November 2025 compared to November  2024) were for cocoa - by 30%, sunflower oil - by 15%, fish and  seafood - by 14.9%, trout - by 13.7%, lamb - by 13.5%, chocolate - by  12.2%, butter - by 11.9%, coffee - by 10.7%, pork - by 9.9%, peas -  by 9.2%, pasta - by 8.8%, sour cream - by 8.6%, buckwheat - by 7.9%,  matsoni - by 7.3%, cottage cheese - by 7.2%, milk - by 5.7%,  margarine - by 5.3%. Less significant price increases were observed  for flour (4.8%), beef (4.2%), cheese (3.4%), fruit (3.1%), bread  (3%), eggs (3%), spelt (2.7%), and poultry (1.8%). Additionally,  there was a year-on-year decline in the price of sugar and granulated  sugar (1%), and vegetables (7.8%). Moreover, all of these products  also increased in price month-on- month, with the exception of fruit,  which fell by 2.7% in November.

Cigarette prices increased by 8.5% year-on-year, compared to a 1.2%  increase the previous year. Among alcoholic beverages, vodka  experienced the most significant year-on-year price increases, up 5%,  while beer and wine saw more modest increases, up 2.5% and 2.3%,  respectively. Last year, wine fell by 1.3%, while vodka and beer saw  more pronounced increases, up 10.2% and 3.7%, respectively. Bottled  mineral water increased in price by 3.2% year-on-year (compared to a  1.8% increase the year before). In the non- food market, jewelry  prices accelerated year-on-year, rising from 14.6% to 37.6%, while  large and small household electrical appliances and equipment  continued to rise in price, up 2.6-3.7% (compared to a 1.6- 3.7%  increase the year before). Prices for medicines and medical equipment  began to rise by 3.1-4.5% per annum, while last year prices for  medicines increased by the same amount, and for medical equipment by  only 0.3%. Furniture, after falling in price by 1.3% last year,  increased in price by 0.8% per annum in November of this year.  Disposable household goods also began to rise in price by 0.8% per  annum (against a 5.3% decline a year ago), footwear by 0.8% (against  a 0.5% decline a year ago), construction materials by 0.6% (against a  2.5% decline a year ago), and tableware and kitchen utensils by 0.7%  (against a 1.2% decline a year ago). The annual decline in clothing  prices began to slow down, to 0.7% (from 3.7% a year ago). Gardening  equipment prices have fallen by 5.2% annually (compared to a 3.4%  increase a year ago).

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices fell year-on-year (November 2025 vs.  November 2024) by 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively, while a year ago, a  more pronounced drop of 6% and 9.9%, respectively, was observed. Over  the first 11 months of 2025, gasoline and diesel fuel prices fell by  a consistent 0.9%, while last year the decline was more pronounced -  by 5.5-9.1%. In November of this year alone, gasoline and diesel fuel  also fell by 0.6% and 1.6%, respectively, which is not much different  from last year's price drop of 0.7-0.9%. As for tariffs for services,  a noticeable annual increase continues to be recorded in the areas of  transport - by 22.1% (including insurance - by 11.2%), comprehensive  services for organizing recreation - by 16.2%, preschool and primary  education - by 8.7%, higher education - by 8.5%. Tariffs for  hairdressing and spa salon services accelerated in growth - from 4.8%  to 11.2%. Medical services began to rise in price more noticeably -  by 3% (against 2.7% a year ago), and it is noteworthy that dental  services and doctor consultations disappeared from the November  statistical report on inflation, which, judging by previous data (for  October 2025), increased in price by 5.5% and 7.1%, respectively. In  the hotel business, services increased in price by 2.8%, while a year  ago they fell in price by 1%. Financial sector services also  accelerated in growth, from 1% to 2.1%.

November's 0.6% inflation was accompanied by a 0.2% appreciation of  the dram against the dollar, and over the first 11 months of 2025,  with inflation at 2%, the dram strengthened against the dollar by  3.7%.  For comparison, a year earlier, November's inflation was 1.3%,  with a 0.5% devaluation of the dram against the dollar. Over the  first 11 months of 2024, inflation of 0.4% was accompanied by a 3.8%  appreciation of the dram against the dollar. In November 2025,  compared to November 2024, with inflation at 3.1%, the dram  strengthened against the dollar by 1.8%, from AMD 389 to AMD 382/1$.  In November 2024, comparatively low annual inflation of 1.4% and a  more noticeable revaluation of the dram against the dollar of 3.4%  were recorded (from 402.5 drams per dollar in November 2023).

It should be noted that in the updated September forecast of the  Central Bank of Armenia, inflation is expected to be between 4.1 and  3.7% in 2025, compared to 1.5% in 2024. In 2026, inflation is  expected to approach the target level, reaching 3.7-3.2%. Moreover,  inflation in the segment of non-exportable goods, characterized by  rigid prices, will decrease in 2025 to 2.2% (from 2.5% in 2024), but  will increase to 3.5- 2.8% in 2026. According to the revised forecast   by the International Monetary Fund in December, inflation in Armenia  in 2025 will amount to 3.5%, but will then decrease in 2026 to 3.1%  and stop at the target level of 3% in 2027. The World Bank in its  updated November forecast predicted the achievement of the target  level of 3% by the end of 2025, with subsequent stabilization at this  level in the medium term, given the consistently low inflation  environment of Armenia and the active monetary policy of the Central  Bank in terms of ensuring the target.