Ex-official on real state of Armenia`s economy

ArmInfo.  Former head of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia, economist and member of the "Wings of Unity" political initiative, David Ananyan, rhetorically  asks whether the Armenian economy, dependent on foreign markets, high  imports, and domestic activity driven by construction, can achieve  economic security.

Ananyan recalled that, according to official statistics, the Economic  Activity Index (EAI) stood at 8.1% in January-October 2025. "In terms  of numbers, this is a high, even impressive, figure. But when we  analyze what drove this growth, the picture again becomes unbalanced  and vulnerable," he noted on social media.  In particular, he noted,  activity is once again being supported by construction and services.  Thus, comparing the data for the first ten months of the year, we  note that construction grew by 20.6%, services (excluding trade) by  10.8%, and trade turnover by 3.2%. These three sectors provided the  main "drive" of GDP.

However, at the same time, the industrial sector is contracting  again, with a cumulative decline of 3.0%. In other words, our real  production base continues to weaken. (Industry: 2,408,950 million  drams, or 97% of the previous year).

At the same time, the economist noted, the "revival" of industry in  October creates a false illusion.

"The figure for October, +17.9% compared to the same month last year,  sounds impressive. But in reality, it was achieved primarily due to  the resumption of work in one sub-sector-the production of basic  metals, which continues to reflect gold re-export flows." This  subsector creates the false impression that "industry is growing,"  while most other subsectors are experiencing either decline or  stagnation. In other words, we're not seeing new production or  technological development, but rather isolated fluctuations in  existing flows," Ananyan emphasized.

Furthermore, he noted, the growth structure doesn't provide the  potential for economic protection. When economic growth is based on  short-term, non-exportable sectors-construction, trade, services, and  industry-and exports aren't strengthening, such growth cannot be  considered sustainable.  Fundamentally, he believes, the Armenian  economy has flows dependent on the external market, high imports, and  domestic activity based on construction, but it lacks a manufacturing  backbone, exports outpacing foreign markets, and long-term  protection, the expert noted.

"An important question remains unanswered. The government presents  growth as a success. But a simple but crucial question must be asked:  can economic growth, with such a structure, strengthen Armenia's  economic security and the well-being of its people in the long term?"  "The numbers clearly indicate the opposite," David Ananyan concludes.