ArmInfo. The growth of economic activity in Armenia is driven by unstable factors, according to an analysis by the Luys Foundation of the socio-economic development of the Armenian economy in January-November 2025.
The foundation's analysis, received by ArmInfo, notes that Armenia has maintained a high rate of economic growth in recent months. It adds that in November of this year, the GDP growth rate was 10.4%, and the cumulative index for January-November was 8.3%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the corresponding index of the previous month. However, two important factors driving GDP growth-high construction growth and industrial recovery-are rooted in unstable processes. "Industrial growth is accelerating, although the underlying factors remain unstable. The industrial sector has begun to recover rapidly, and positive growth indicators are already being recorded. However, growth in recent months is primarily driven by growth in the non-ferrous metals subsector of manufacturing, which accounted for 18.4 percentage points of the 20.8% growth in manufacturing in October of this year. The latter is primarily due to the re-export of gold and other metals," the fund's analysts believe.
At the same time, they note that positive trends in the export sector of the economy are still very insignificant. They emphasize that, although export and import indicators have already turned positive and accelerated sharply, they are still insufficient to indicate recovery and healthy growth in foreign trade. In particular, if export growth is adjusted for the contribution of the commodity group "precious and semi- precious stones, precious metals, and products made from them" (neutralizing a significant portion of the impact of re-exports), growth will amount to only 2.2%. "The adjusted import volume also shows similarly low growth-3.6%. These figures are quite low and indicate a lack of significant positive trends in the sector," the fund's analysis states.
