RA FIS: Positive economic and infrastructure momentum to persist in  2026

ArmInfo.  Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service (FIS) predicts a high probability that  the positive momentum for both economic and infrastructure projects  in the South Caucasus will continue throughout 2026. In its annual  report on external risks, the FIS notes that 2025 was characterized  by an intense "race" among global and regional powers for influence  over infrastructure initiatives in the South Caucasus. This  competition, however, has fostered conditions that allowed regional  nations to slightly ease tensions and pursue long-term stability.

"The dynamics of global and regional competition for such projects  will likely continue into 2026.  Regional infrastructure and economic  projects, while not the only driving force behind the  institutionalization of peace, nonetheless have great potential. On  one hand they to raise the cost of military escalation in the region,  and on the other hand the participation in these projects bolsters  the political and economic standing of regional states on the  international stage," the report states.

At the same time, the Armenian FIS is confident that a complete  lifting of the blockade in the South Caucasus region, and  particularly the possible resumption of traffic on the Kars-Gyumri  railway, the implementation of the "Trump route" (TRIPP), as well as  possible initiatives for bilateral transport links with Armenia's  neighbors, will create broad economic and logistical opportunities.  The report emphasizes that this, in turn, will lead to market  diversification and expanded regional trade.

"This will lead to  balanced development for  border  populations-specifically between Armenia and Turkey to the west, and  Armenia and Azerbaijan to the east. By improving the speed and  cost-effectiveness of regional logistics, the South Caucasus is  expected to see a significant boost in international investment  attractiveness. According to our assessment, there is a high  probability that the positive dynamics of both economic and  infrastructure projects in our region will continue into 2026," the  report continues.

The report concludes that infrastructure geopolitics demonstrates how  state actors use infrastructure to expand their influence through  economic leverage and dependency. "We believe that new economic,  infrastructure, and trade initiatives in our region will continue to  face attacks in 2026 from various actors with conflicting interests  in the region,, These threats may manifest as physical restrictions,  information influence operations, and other malicious actions," the  Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service stated.