ArmInfo. Armenia's gross domestic product (GDP) would decline by 15.1%, and inflation would rise by 14.3%, if the country were to leave the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The main losses would be in the metallurgy, beverage, tobacco, and food industries, where the decline would amount to up to a third, Alexey Shevtsov, Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council, told reporters.
Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU would lead to a significant economic downturn, he noted. "GDP, according to the most conservative estimates, will decline by 15.1% (approximately $3.65 billion), domestic consumption by 14.1%, and industrial production by 26.3%. The main losses will be in the metallurgy, beverage, tobacco, and food industries: the decline will be up to a third," the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council stated, according to TASS.
"Chemical production will decline by approximately a fifth, and textile production by 15%. Inflation will increase by 14.3 percentage points, and unemployment by 6.4 percentage points," he emphasized.
According to Shevtsov, Armenia's potential accession to the EU and the introduction of visa regimes with Russia and Iran will significantly reduce the influx of tourists and deal a severe blow to the country's economy.
"Armenia's accession to the EU and the potential introduction of a visa regime with Russia and Iran will significantly reduce the influx of tourists. Considering that tourism accounts for approximately 13.5% of Armenia's GDP, and almost a quarter of the officially employed population is employed in this sector, this will deal a severe blow to the country's economy and its residents," he noted.
It should be noted that on January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved a draft law on the initiation of the process of joining the European Union, proposed by the "Eurakve" civic initiative. The draft was submitted to the Armenian parliament for approval. On March 26, the parliament adopted it in its final reading and sent it to the president for signature. The document was signed on April 4 of that year. Moscow stated that Russia had conveyed to Armenia that simultaneous membership in the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union is impossible. At the same time, the Armenian authorities declare that they will remain in the EAEU as long as this is possible on the path to European integration.
According to the RA Statistics Committee, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU fell by 36.9% in 2025 (versus a 54% increase in 2024) to $8 billion. This was the result of a significant decline in imports by 48.5% (versus a 2.1-fold increase in 2024) and a lingering decline in exports, with a slowdown from 10.7% to 5%, amounting to $4.8 billion and $3.2 billion, respectively. The EAEU's share of total foreign trade declined from 42.3% to 37.5% in 2025, with a decline in imports from 54.9% to 37% accompanied by an increase in exports from 25.8% to 38.4%.
Moreover, among the EAEU countries, a significant decline in foreign trade turnover was recorded for the Russian Federation - by 38.3% to $7.7 billion. In particular, exports in this direction fell by 6.9% (against a 10.7% decline in 2024) to $2.96 billion, and imports - by 49.2% (against a 2.1-fold increase in 2024) to $4.7 billion. At the same time, Russia's share in exports increased in 2025 from 24.2% to 35.3%, while in imports, on the contrary, it decreased from 54.2% to 36%.
