ArmInfo. In January-August 2026, the share of the EU in Armenia's foreign trade increased to 19% (from 12.3% a year ago), while the EAEU's share decreased to 29% (from 36.1% a year ago). According to data from the RA Statistical Committee, foreign trade turnover with the EU accelerated in annual growth from 5.6% to 53.9%, exceeding $2.4 billion, while with the EAEU it slowed in decline from 49.9% to 17.2%, amounting to $3.85 billion. Moreover, among the EAEU countries, only Russia recorded a decline in volumes, while most EU countries chose to increase volumes.
These are Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, France, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Austria, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Slovakia, Greece, Sweden, and Portugal, and many of them saw significant declines.
Specifically, the EAEU's share of exports decreased from 39.4% to 38.6% (with Russia's share slightly changing from 36.7% to 35.7%), while the EU's share increased from 7.9% to 14.1%. Meanwhile, the EAEU's share of imports decreased from 34% to 23.8% (due to Russia, from 33.2% to 22.4%), while the EU's share increased from 15% to 20.6%. The share of the remaining countries representing the leading five changed as follows: China increased its share in both exports from 8.7% to 16.9% and imports from 15.6% to 16.2%; the UAE significantly reduced its share in exports from 25.5% to 7.9% and further reduced its negligible share in imports from 0.7% to 0.4%; Germany increased its share in exports from 1.5% to 1.6% and in imports from 2.9% to 3.7%; Bulgaria increased its share in exports more significantly from 0.7% to 4% than in imports - from 0.2% to 0.7%; the USA continues to increase its share in imports from 2.6% to 3.4%, having slightly reduced its share in exports from 0.7% to 0.6%; Iraq increased; Export share increased from 4.6% to 4.9%, while import share was a meager 0.03%. Iran maintained its share of imports at 5.3%, slightly increasing its share from 1.2% to 1.4%.
The top five exporters are Russia, China, the UAE, Iraq, and Bulgaria, with a combined volume of $3.2 billion (or 69.3% of the total). Imports are led by Russia, China, Iran, Germany, and the United States, with a combined volume of $4.4 billion (or 51% of the total). Both exports and imports are declining for Russia and the UAE. For China, the recovery from export decline to significant growth is accompanied by a sharp slowdown in import growth. For Germany, export growth is sharply slowing, while imports are recovering from recession to high growth. For the United States, the acceleration of the export decline is accompanied by imports recovering from recession to high double-digit growth. With Bulgaria, both exports and imports have recovered from the recession, rising significantly. With Iraq, the decline in exports is accompanied by a continued, several-fold increase in imports. With Iran, exports have returned to growth, while import growth has slowed.
The share of Armenia's top five trading partners—Russia, China, Iran, the UAE, and Germany—decreased in January-August 2026 to a combined 52.5% of total foreign trade turnover (from 63.7% or $8.2 billion in January-August 2025), amounting to $7.1 billion in absolute terms. Two of them, Russia and the UAE, continued to decline by 19.2% and 69.5%, respectively (compared to 51.3% and 69.9% last year). Meanwhile, foreign trade volumes with China and Germany grew by 31% and 31.2% (from a decline of 11% and 5.3% a year ago), while growth with Iran accelerated slightly from 5.3% to 7.3%.
Note that among EAEU countries, foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Kyrgyzstan has increased significantly, with impressive growth observed in both imports and exports. Armenia's growth in foreign trade with Belarus and Kazakhstan is supported by a significant increase in imports from these countries. Armenia's foreign trade with the CIS countries has significantly increased with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with both exports and imports increasing with Turkmenistan, and exports increasing with Uzbekistan. Strong growth in foreign trade is also observed between Armenia and Ukraine, driven by a significant increase in both exports and imports.
Overall, Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-August 2026 reached $13.3 billion, with the year-on-year trend returning from a significant 41.1% decline to a 3.2% increase. In particular, imports improved, returning from a 34.9% decline to a 9.3% increase, while the decline in exports slowed significantly from 48.8% to 6.5%, reaching $8.7 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively.
It should be noted that, according to the updated data from September of this year, According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the dynamics of exports and imports, after accelerating the decline in 2025 from 11-3.2% to 30.1-27.2%, will remain in a double-digit decline in 2026 at 29.9-37.6% (for exports) and 25.8-30.2% (for imports), while the previous June forecast expected a noticeable slowdown in the decline both for exports to 5.9-5.1% and for imports to 4.2-5.8%. Now the Central Bank expects the resumption of growth in foreign trade in 2027, and the rates will be more noticeable - 5.5-7.7% (for exports) and 1.8-2% (for imports), than previously forecasted - 2.6-4.3% (for exports) and 1.1-0.8% (for imports). In its June forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed to a modest improvement in Armenia's export and import dynamics in 2026, expecting a recovery from a double-digit decline to a very weak and almost flat growth of 0.9-0.7% (versus the previously projected 2.2-2.1%). However, the IMF significantly improved its forecast for export and import growth in 2027, to 5.5-6.3% (versus the previously projected 3.4-3.7%). In its July forecast, the World Bank did not indicate what the dynamics of Armenia's foreign trade might be in 2026-2028, but noted that the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP, after a noticeable increase in 2025 from 4.6% to 7.2%, will gradually decrease - to 5.6% in 2026, to 5.2% in 2027 and to 4.8% in 2028, which will be facilitated by the normalization of trade flows and the growth of export potential.
