ArmInfo. Market expectations of the CBA policy rate path have not changed materially since the last  decision and continue to reflect expectations of a gradual reduction in the policy rate through the end of the current year.

ArmInfo.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast for Armenia's GDP for  2024 from the previous 5% to an updated 6% (versus actual 8.7% growth in 2023), with a slowdown to 5.2% in 2025. This is noted in the IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024; Steady but Slow: Resilience amid  Divergenc."

ArmInfo.

ArmInfo.The World Bank has improved its forecast for Armenia's GDP growth for 2024 from the  previous 4.7% to an updated 5.5% (against the actual slowdown in growth in 2023 to 8.7% from 12.6% in 2022). For 2025, the economic growth forecast has also been improved, but less noticeably - from the previous 4.5% to an updated 4.9%. Over the medium term, GDP growth will gradually approach the potential 4.5%, and average  inflation will rise to the targeted 4%.

ArmInfo. The Asian Development Bank forecasts 5.7% economic growth for Armenia in 2024, with the  rate accelerating to 6% in 2025 Luke Fochtman, Deputy Country Director of ADB (Asian Development Bank )Armenia Resident Mission stated this during a press conference on April 11, presenting the ADO (Asian Development Outlook).

ArmInfo.

ArmInfo.The 1.2% deflation in the consumer market of Armenia in March 2024 compared to March 2023  (compared to the 5.4% inflation recorded a year ago) was caused by the drop in food prices. In Q1 2024, inflation was slightly lower than last year's quarterly level - 0.2% versus 0.8%, which was the result of cheaper non-food products. 

ArmInfo. In the banking sector of Armenia, the volume of lending accelerated in growth in 2023 from 13%  to 21%, reaching 5.8 trillion drams ($14.2 billion). But this was not enough to save profits from the decline, which, after a 3-fold jump in 2022, decreased by 9.2% in 2023, amounting to 229.9 billion drams ($567.9 million). This is evidenced by the data of the Financial Rating of Banks of Armenia as of December 31, 2023, prepared by  ArmInfo. 

ArmInfo.The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) forecasts GDP growth of 5.3% or 6.4% for 2024 - up to  10.4-10.5 trillion drams (against 8.7% growth - up to 9.5 trillion drams in 2023), depending on the formation in the economy or high or low inflation environment. In 2025, according to the Central Bank's forecast, GDP growth will accelerate slightly to 5.7-6.7%, reaching a value of 11.4-11.7 trillion drams.

ArmInfo. The external inflationary impact on the Armenian economy continues to weaken significantly. Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, Martin Galstyan, said on March 12 at a press conference on the reduction of the refinancing rate to 8.5% from 8.75%, noting that lowering the key rate is necessary to achieve the target inflation level of 4% and ensure price stability in the medium term.

ArmInfo.Armenia's economic activity increased by 10.7 percent in January 2024 compared to January 2023 (versus 10.5% growth a year earlier). In January alone, economic activity decreased by 45.1% (versus a 46.1% decline in January 2023), and the decline was recorded in all areas except the energy complex, according to the final data of the RA Statistical Committee.

ArmInfo. In Armenia, consumer prices are falling due to cheaper food products, such as cereals,  flour, meat, butter, fish, bread, cheeses, vegetables and fruits. In parallel, an increase in prices for gasoline, alcohol and cigarettes is recorded. In addition, the prices of services continue to increase, especially the tariffs for personal transport services have risen sharply, by the data of the RA Statistical Committee.

ArmInfo.Economic activity in Armenia increased by 10.7% in January 2024 compared to January 2023  (versus 10.5% growth a year earlier). In January alone, economic activity decreased by 45.1% (versus a 46.1% decline in January 2023), and the decline was recorded in all areas except the energy complex, according to the  preliminary data from the RA Statistical Committee.

ArmInfo. S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Armenia. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable.

ArmInfo. Global economic growth will slow, according to the Macroeconomic Outlook 2024-2026 by  the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). 

ArmInfo.The baseline scenario projects Armenian GDP growth at 5.7% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025. Inflation could accelerate to  3.6% in  2024 amid continued elevated domestic demand, a moderate weakening of the national currency, and the ongoing cycle of refinancing rate reductions, according to the Macroerconomic Outlook by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). 

ArmInfo.

ArmInfo.

ArmInfo.A weak deflationary impact on the Armenian economy is expected from the external sector. Governor of  the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia, Martin Galstyan, stated on at a press conference January 30, presenting the rationale for today's reduction in the refinancing rate by 0.5 pp - setting it at 8.75%.

ArmInfo.