Friday, July 8 2011 13:39
Banking community of Armenia expects 4.8% economic growth by late 2011
ArmInfo. By late 2011 the banking community of Armenia expects 4.8% economic growth. These are the results of the public opinion poll among 54 banking top managers from 19 commercial banks of Armenia held by the financial analysis service of ArmInfo News Agency over the summer months. It should be noted that the minimum mentioned level of GDP growth is 0.5%, and the maximum mentioned level is 15%.
When asked about the expected level of inflation in the country, most of the responsible employees of the banks forecast annual inflation within 8%-9% range (average level), whereas 11 respondents expect inflation to range from 10% to 15%. Only 4 specialists pointed out minimum inflation at 4-5%.
The replies about the Armenian Dram exchange rate forecasts were interesting. In the average, all the respondents forecasted the exchange rate at 384 AMD/1USD, the minimum rate was forecasted at 365 AMD/1USD, and maximum at 402 AMD/1 USD. At the same time, 30 respondents forecasted the exchange rate at 370-390 AMD/1 USD, and only 4 respondents - over 400 AMD.
To note, the government and international financial institutes expect GDP growth at 4.6% by late 2011. The official forecast of inflation in the country is 9%. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, in 2011 the AMD/USD exchange rate will range from 360 to 380 AMD/1 USD.
When asked whether it is possible to expect growth in the summary amount of credit portfolio of the commercial banks by late 2011 over the post-crisis period, the overwhelming majority of the respondents replied positively. In the average, the bankers expect the portfolio to grow by 5.4%, some of them expect the portfolio to grow by 15%, and only 3 respondents expect 4-10% decline in the portfolio.
As regards the expectations concerning credit rates, the specialists pointed out their average level at 16.6% p.a. for AMD loans and 13.4% for USD loans. Regarding AMD loans, 14 respondents think that the credit rates will range from 18% to 22%, 19 respondents expect the loan rates to range from 14% to 17%. Regarding USD loans, the minimum rate was forecasted at 8%, and the maximum rate - at 18%. The majority of the respondents expect the loan rates to range from 12% to 14%. As regards deposit rates, the average level of AMD deposits made up 11%, USD deposits - at 7.4%. The majority of the respondents expect the AMD deposit rates to range from 10% to 12%, and the USD deposit rates to range from 7% to 8%.
At the same time, most bankers expect the decline of overall liquidity to range from 24% to 30% by late 2011; however, some respondents expect this index to grow by 34-40%. As a result, according to the bankers' forecasts, the overall liquidity will make up 31.1%, which corresponds to the factual index for late 2010.
As regards the current liquidity, the average level of it is expected at 175.8% against the factual 181% fixed in late 2010. The respondents' opinions about this issue are quite different. For instance, 27 respondents forecasting reduction in current liquidity expect its level to range from 110% to 171%. 17 respondents expect current liquidity to range from 180% to 201%.
To note, the specialists of BTA Bank and Mellat Bank refused to participate in the public opinion poll.
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