Tuesday, December 10 2013 15:51
Central Bank forecasts 3.4-3.8% economic growth in Armenia in 2013
ArmInfo. There is a 30% probability that in 2013 economic growth in Armenia will make up 3.4- 3.8% and a 90% probability that it will make up 2.6-4.5%, says the fiscal policy of Armenia's Central Bank for Q4 2013.
This is less than the CB forecast for this year before and the key reason is that the global economy is not recovering as quickly as was expected.
In 2014 and 2015 there is a 30% probability that GDP will grow by 3.1- 8.1% and by 2.8%, respectively, and a 90-probability that it will grow by 5-6.2% and 4.3-5.7%, respectively.
In industry the CB's forecast has been lowered due to falling domestic and foreign demands. The key drivers of growth in industry are mining, food production, diamond cutting and pharmaceutics. In 2013 the sector will grow by 3-4%. In the mid-tern future the growth rate will rise to 5.7-6.3% due to enlarging productions, the Teghut project and the Government's policy to stimulate exports.
In construction the forecast has also been reduced due to lower expectations on the part of companies working in this field. In 2013 the sector will drop by 11-13% but in the mid-term future it will experience a growth of 0-3% due to big infrastructure projects.
Services will grow by 6-7% in 2013 and by 5.8-6% in the mid-term future.
In agriculture the forecast has been raised due to good weather and the growing number of greenhouses. In 2013 the sector will grow by 5.5- 6.5%, in the mid-term future by 5-6.5% due to continuing growth in greenhouse and crop areas and crop yield and the Government's complex measures to develop the sector.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in 2012 economic growth in Armenia made up 7.2%: services grew by 10.8%, agriculture by 9.5%, industry by 8.8%, energy by 8.1%. In Jan-Oct 2013 economic growth made up 3.4%: industry grew by 7.8%, agriculture by 5.9%, services by 2.8%, energy dropped by 3.9%, construction by 8.8%.
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