Central Bank forecasts budget deficit growth to 3.8% of GDP in 2015

ArmInfo. Central Bank of Armenia forecasts a twofold growth of budget deficit in GDP.  According to the Fiscal Policy Program for Q4 2015, the deficit of state budget in GDP will total 3.8% versus 1.9% in 2014. It will be higher than the target for 2.34%. Earlier the CB forecasted a 3.7% budget deficit in GDP for 2015.

The forecast of the budget revenues-to-GDP ratio has been revised.  According to the CB, it will total 21.9% in 2015 versus previous 24.3%, in 2016 and 2017 - 21.7% and 22.3% respectively (versus previously predicted 24.6% and 24.7%). In 2018, the revenues -to-GDP ratio will total 22.4% (versus the target of 24.8%).

The budget expenditures-to-GDP ratio was revised as well. In 2015, this indicator totaled 25.7% versus previously predicted 28%. In 2016-2017 this indicator will fell to 25.2% and 24.2% respectively (versus earlier forecasted 27.4% and 26.7%) and in 2018, it will total 24% (versus 26.5%).

The taxes-to-GDP ratio will fall by 0.2% year on year and the expenditures-to-GDP ratio will fall by 0.5% (versus previously predicted growth of both the indicators).

According to the source, the share of interest payments in GDP will total 1.5% in 2015 (identical to the previous forecast). In 2016-2017, this indicator will total 1.8%, in 2018 - 1.7% (versus previously predicted 1.9%).

The forecast of the fiscal item to GDP ratio for 2015 was left unchanged -2%. In 2016, this indicator will plummet to negative 1.1% versus previously forecasted 2.7%. In 2017, it will shrink to negative 1.5% versus previously forecasted 0.3%. In 2018, it will be certainly improved and brought to zero (no changes in forecast).