Wednesday, May 11 2016 19:46

ArmInfo. Central Bank of Armenia forecasts slackening of economy growth in 2016 to 1.5-2.6% versus previously forecasted 1.6-2.7%. This forecast is given in the monetary policy program of the CBA for Q1 2016. However starting from 2017 the CBA expects acceleration of economy growth rates due to efficient implementation of the governmental program on stimulating the investments and export, gradual improvement of external economic situation and influence of the conducted structural reforms, as a result of which the economy growth may reach 3-4.5% by the end of 2017.

1.3-2.1% growth is forecasted in the industrial sector, positive 0.2% from negative 0.8% is forecasted in construction field, in the field of services 1.8-2.4% growth is expected and 4.2-5% growth is forecasted in agriculture. Besides, the CBA forecasts drop of individuals' transfers by 9-12% (in dollar terms), which is determined by the revision of forecast on economic downfall in Russia and regular devaluation of Ruble in Jan 2016.

To recall, International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for Armenia's economic growth in 2016 to 2.25-2.5% versus earlier forecasted 2.2%. World Bank forecasts a 2.5% GDP growth for Armenia in 2016.  EBRD forecasts economic growth to 2% in 2016. The Central Bank of Armenia  revised its economic growth forecast for Armenia in 2016 from the previous 3.2- 3.9% to 1.6-2.7%, in its monetary policy program for Q4 2015. The state budget of Armenia fixed 2.2% GDP growth in 2016. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia GDP growth in Armenia in 2015 totaled 3% versus 3.5% in 2014. According to the statistical data economic activity in Q1 2016 grew by 5.6% y-o-y versusu 2.5% growth in the same period of 2015. and accleeraiton of growth was ensured mainly due to field fo services, industry and agriculture.

To note, in 2015 the inflow of the individuals' transfers to Armenia dropped by 24% to $1.6 bln amid 16% fall in the outflow to $0.8 bln.  Russia's share in both the inflow and outflow is the biggest - 63% and 37%, respectively. The difference between the inflow of transfers to Armenia from Russia and the outflow from Armenia to Russia started shrinking since 2014 (down 13%), whereas over the previous four years it experienced growth: in 2010 - $942 mln (+24%), in 2011 - $1.2 bln (+25%), in 2012 - $1.4 bln (+18.2%), in 2013 - $1.5 bln (+7.2%).  Over the past two years, the inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia fell by almost $730 mln (in 2015 alone - by $554 mln) to $1.002 bln versus a less tangible decline in the crises- affected year 2009 (by $512 mln).