Saturday, July 16 2016 12:57

ArmInfo. On July 11-15 compared to the previous week the amount of transactions on the interbank forex market grew by 20.2%, amid daily activity with ensuring amounts of $1.1-2.2 mln AMD. At the same time on the intra-bank market transactions with USD grew by 80-84%, due to which AMD maintained on 477 AMD/$1 level. At the same time, NASDAQ OMX Armenia has seen no transactions this week either.

The Central Bank still refrains from interventions. In general, in the first half of 2016, AMD appreciated from 482 to 477 AMD/$1, depreciating in mid Feb (from 482 to 496 AMD/$1 on Feb 12), in early April (from 479 to 484.5 AMD/$1), in mid May (from 479 to 480.5 AMD/$1 on May 12), in early and in late June (from 478 to 479 AMD/$1 on June 3, and from 476 to 477 AMD/$1 on June 30), mainiaing the 477 AMD/$1 level in the first half of July.  Independent experts say the AMD/USD exchange rate may rise to 540- 550 AMD/$1 by late 2016, amid the financial and economic crisis in Russia and the sliding prices of oil and crude metals, which is one of the key export items of Armenia.

The CBA press office has told ArmInfo that this week NASDAQ OMX Armenia has seen no transactions. The interbank forex market demonstrated daily activity, registering the biggest amounts of transactions in the first half of the week, especially on July 13-$2.150mln.  This time, the total amount during the week (July 11 - July 15) was $6.550 mln (versus $ 5.450mln the previous week) at the average exchange rate of 477.09 AMD/$1 (versus the previous 477.44 AMD/$1).

The source says that on July 11-July 15, there was a high activity of dollar and euro transactions on the intra-bank market, amid moderate growth of ruble transactions. The purchase of USD grew by 84% over the week and EUR by 47% amid growth of sales of USD and EUR by 79.6% and 55.6% respectively. At this background purchase of Rubles grew by 9% and sale of Rubles grew by 12.5%. Thus, the banks bought $86.5 mln at the average exchange rate of 475.75 AMD/$1 and 8.5 mln EUR at the average exchange rate of 526.06 AMD/1EUR and 1.238 bln RUR at the average exchange rate of 7.42 AMD/1 RUR, while sold $96.95 mln at the average exchange rate of 477.23 AMD/$1 and 14.2 mln EUR at the average exchange rate of 529.43 AMD/1EUR and 424.997 mln RUR at the average exchange rate of 7.52 AMD/1RUR.

 

During the previous week (July 4-July 9), the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 40.2 bln and USD loans worth $29.3 mln. As compared with the previous week (June 27-July 2), AMD loans declined by 29.1%, and the ones in terms of USD declined significantly- 75.5%.

To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/$1 on average and strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28, the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia to 496AMD/$1, however since March it strengthened and stood at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. Later, AMD started revaluating again since mid-April. By April 29, AMD appreciated against USD to 479 AMD/$1 and this trend continued in May. By May 31, AMD appreciated against USD to 478 AMD/$1, and against EUR to 532 AMD/1EUR, at the same time depreciating against RUR to 7.3 AMD/1RUR. The first half of June AMD demonstrated moderate depreciation, followed by appreciation:  thus by June 30 the AMD stood at 477 AMD/$1, 529 AMD/1EUR, and 7.4 AMD/1 RUR. In the first fortnight of July AMD was still at 477 AMD/$1 (July 15), slightly depreciating against EUR to 530 AMD/1EUR and devaluating against Russian Ruble to 7.6 AMD/1RUR.