Tuesday, August 2 2016 15:38

ArmInfo. Debt burden per capita in Armenia has reached $1.8 thousand as of July 1 2016, with foreign debt accounting for $1.5 thousand ($550 in 2009) of total, as foreign debt keeps growing amid high rates of migration. In fact, taking into accountthe real scales of migration, the foreign debt burden per capita is much higher (by statistics, population of Armenia totaled 2.995 million versus 3.006million a year ago and 3.266 million five years ago). Experts forecast further growth of the foreign debt by 2017. Afterwards, certain decline is anticipated. 

The state debt's growth by 5.3% to $5.345 billion (2.546 trillion) in the first half of 2016 is a result of the growing foreign and internal debts.  By preliminary data of the Financial Ministry provided to ArmInfo by the National Statistical Service, foreign debt 
grew 3.6% for the 1st half of 2016 to $4.5 billion (2.13 trillion) drams, amid 14.9% growth of internal debt to $874.8 million (416.7 billion drams).  As compared to the first half of 2015, the foreign debt grew 12.1%, internal debt - 26%, which prompted a 14.2% growth of total state debt of Armenia.  

The government accounts for $3.97 billion or 89% of total foreign debt. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) borrowed the remaining $497.1million or 11%.  He Government's foreign debt increased 11.7% year over year and that of CBA- 15.6% year over year.

Government bonds account for 89.7% of total internal state debt versus 87% in the first half of 2015 ($784.8million or 373.8 billion drams), with the absolute indicator growing 29.6% year-over-year and 16.8% for the first half of 2016 alone.  Then go Armenian Eurobonds - $81.1 million or 38.7 billion drams accounting for 9.3% of total 
internal state debt versus 13% a year ago. The absolute indicator grew 2,1% y- o-y amid 18.4% decline in the first half of 2016. The guarantees account for the remaining 1% or $8.9 million of total, amid zeroed commercial loans. 

As of Jan 1 2016, the state debt of Armenia totaled 2.5 trillion drams or $5.1 billion (versus 2.1 trillion in 2014 and 1.9 trillion in 2013). The foreign debt accounted for 2.1 trillion drams or $4.3 billion in total state debt (versus 1.8 trillion in 2014 and 1.6 
trillion in 2013). The internal debt accounted for 368.4bln drams or $761.5 bln. Gold and currency reserves in 2015 totaled $1.8bln.  Growing foreign debt of Armenia and high migration are worsening the debt burden per capita, which increased since 2015 to $1.7 thousand by April 1 2016.  This indicator for the foreign debt alone increased 
to $1.5 thousand (versus $550 in 2009). If the real scale of migration were considered, the foreign debt burden per capita would be much higher. The coverage of foreign debt by gold and foreign exchange reserves made up 41.1% by 2016, exceeding the indicator of 2014 by 39.3% and yielding to the level of 2013 by 57.7%. The result of this, according to ArmInfo's analysts, is that in 2013 amid growth 
of gold and foreign exchange reserves by 27.8% (to $2.3 bln) rates of foreign debt growth were not tangible (5% to $3.9 bln), after which in 2014 amid decline of gold and foreign exchange reserves by 34.8% (to $1.5 bln) foreign debt increased by 13.7% (to $3.8 bln) and in 2015 both reserves and foreign debt demonstrated upward trend. Thus, in 2015 gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by 20% and 19% respectively. The experts forecast that in 2017 Armenia's foreign debt will increase, after which it will start to decline.