Wednesday, October 5 2016 18:23
Karine Melikyan

IMF improved forecast for Armenian GDP growth to 3.2% from previous 2.25-2.5%

IMF improved forecast for Armenian GDP growth to 3.2% from previous 2.25-2.5%

ArmInfo. IMF has improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2016 to 3.2% with further acceleration in 2017 to 3.4%. In its previous forecast IMF expected 2.25-2.5% GDP growth in Armenia in 2016. Besides, IMF forecasts positive dynamics of prices for Armenia, which at year end of 2016 will drop by 0.5%, according to the new IMF economic outlook presented on October 4 in Washington on the threshold of annual meeting of IMF and WB executive boards.

The IMF has also improved its forecast for Russia's GDP dynamics in 2016. Now, it expects Russia's GDP to decline by 0.8% in 2016 versus previously forecasted 1.2% and to grow by 1.1% in 2017, versus previously forecasted 1%. The IMF calls the continuing economic recovery in Russia as one of the key events in the global economy, which required adjustments in the previous report of IMF that was released in April. In other comments to the figures it is stated that the increase in oil export revenues due to the strengthening of oil prices, brings some relief to exporters of oil and especially to the Russian economy. Nevertheless, the prospects for growth in Russia in 2017 and in the following years remain suppressed in particular due to the impact of sanctions on productivity and investment, the IMF experts note. As for the oil price, according to the report, in 2016 the average price will reach $42.96 per barrel, and in 2017 it will grow to $50.64 per barrel.

The IMF has improved GDP forecast for 2016 in CIS countries expecting 0.3% decline versus early forecasted 1.1% decline. To note, IMF includes Georgia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine in the CIS due to their geographic location and economic similarity. According to the authors of the document improvement of figures in the region is caused mainly due to strengthening of oil prices.

The IMPF traditionally presents the countries of the region in two subgroups-exporters and importers of energy resources. In the first group Uzbekistan (+6%) and Turkmenistan (+5.4%) are leading by the rates of economic growth in 2016 and 2017. The remaining countries of the subgroup are still in negative dynamics.  Russia and Kazakhstan-0.8% drop of GDP for 2016 and in Azerbaijan-2.4%. For 2017 the IMF experts forecast resumption of growth in Russia by 1.1%, in Kazakhstan by 0.6% and in Azerbaijan-1.4%.

Among the importers of energy resources the most optimistic forecasts were given for Tajikistan (6% and 4.5% GDP growth in 2016, 2017), as well as Georgia (3.4% and 5.2% respectively) and Armenia (3.2% and 3.4% respectively). Forecasts for Kyrgyzstan (2.2% and 2.3% GDP growth in 2016-2017), Moldavia (2% and 3% respectively) and even for Ukraine (1.5% and 2.5%) are positive. Decline still continues in Belarus-by 3% and 0.5% in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

As for the inflation, the highest figures within the group are forecasted in Ukraine (15.1%), followed by Kazakhstan (13.1%), Belarus (12.7%) and Azerbaijan (10.2%). Armenia on the contrary will experience drop of prices by 0.5% by the end of the year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also improved the inflation outlook for Russia to 5.9% in 2016 and 4.9% in 2017. The new outlook is much better than July expectations of the IMF, which accordingly totaled 6.6% for this year and 5.2% for 2017. 

To recall, the state budget of Armenia fixed 2.2% GDP growth in 2016, a 12-month inflation  - 4% (+-1.5%). World Bank forecasts a 1.9% (vs previous 2.5%) GDP growth for Armenia in 2016, and 2.8%-2.9% in 2017-2018. EBRD forecasts economic growth to 2% in 2016. The Central Bank of Armenia revised its economic growth forecast for Armenia in 2016 from the previous 1.5%-2.6% to 2.7%- 3.6%, in its monetary policy program for Q2 2016 but in the next November program it will possibly revise forecast towards slackening. According to the statistical data economic activity in Jan-Aug 2016 grew by 2.4% y-o-y versus 3.9% growth in the same period of 2015 mainly due industry (7%) and services (8%).

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Armenia takes an intersectoral approach to solving problems of water  sector managementArmenia takes an intersectoral approach to solving problems of water  sector management
Government discusses investment program for construction of  new bus  station in Yerevan Government discusses investment program for construction of  new bus  station in Yerevan 
IMF will continue to support development of Armenian economyIMF will continue to support development of Armenian economy
Net inflow of remittances to Armenia continues to grow at very high  pace due to remittances from RussiaNet inflow of remittances to Armenia continues to grow at very high  pace due to remittances from Russia
Yerevan hosts 16th meeting of Armenian-Belarusian Intergovernmental  CommissionYerevan hosts 16th meeting of Armenian-Belarusian Intergovernmental  Commission
Armenia Securities Exchange, Central Depository of Armenia completed  ISO 27001 and ISO 9001 recertificationArmenia Securities Exchange, Central Depository of Armenia completed  ISO 27001 and ISO 9001 recertification
CBA significantly improves its forecast for projected export and  import growth in 2022 to 28-24%, from 5.1-8.3% previouslyCBA significantly improves its forecast for projected export and  import growth in 2022 to 28-24%, from 5.1-8.3% previously
The share of exports, imports and transfers in Armenia`s GDP in 2023  will decrease compared to 2022:  Macroeconomic project of state  budgetThe share of exports, imports and transfers in Armenia`s GDP in 2023  will decrease compared to 2022:  Macroeconomic project of state  budget
13th regional exhibition PANARMENIAN EXPO 2022 opened in Yerevan13th regional exhibition PANARMENIAN EXPO 2022 opened in Yerevan
IFC’s New Loan to Evocabank to Help Smaller Businesses Grow and Create Jobs in ArmeniaIFC’s New Loan to Evocabank to Help Smaller Businesses Grow and Create Jobs in Armenia
SRC chairman, IMF representatives discuss issues of ensuring access  to bank information for tax authorities informationSRC chairman, IMF representatives discuss issues of ensuring access  to bank information for tax authorities information
High-voltage power line to Iran damaged due to Azerbaijani shelling:  MinisterHigh-voltage power line to Iran damaged due to Azerbaijani shelling:  Minister
Governor: Due to the enemy`s actions, the Sotk gold mine is operated at 40 percentGovernor: Due to the enemy`s actions, the Sotk gold mine is operated at 40 percent
CBA further improves its forecast of unemployment rate: It is  expected to decrease to 14.1% in 2022CBA further improves its forecast of unemployment rate: It is  expected to decrease to 14.1% in 2022
FLYONE ARMENIA to start operating Yerevan-Milan-Yerevan flightsFLYONE ARMENIA to start operating Yerevan-Milan-Yerevan flights
Armenian tax authorities exceeded program tax collection target by  about $180 millionArmenian tax authorities exceeded program tax collection target by  about $180 million
Armenia to significantly increase capex for infrastructure projects  in 2023Armenia to significantly increase capex for infrastructure projects  in 2023
Yerevan becomes one of most popular destinations for Red Wings  passengersYerevan becomes one of most popular destinations for Red Wings  passengers
In 2023, government debt will be reduced to 50% of GDP, from expected  53% by the end of 2022: Draft state budget of ArmeniaIn 2023, government debt will be reduced to 50% of GDP, from expected  53% by the end of 2022: Draft state budget of Armenia
11%-12% GDP growth expected in Armenia in 202211%-12% GDP growth expected in Armenia in 2022
Yerevan Municipality, Asian Development Bank discuss new areas of  cooperationYerevan Municipality, Asian Development Bank discuss new areas of  cooperation
Tenders for construction of Kajaran-Agarak section of North-South  project to be invited Tenders for construction of Kajaran-Agarak section of North-South  project to be invited 
Armenian government discuss draft budget for 2023Armenian government discuss draft budget for 2023
With its new forecast for 2022, CBA further reduces decline in net  inflow of transfers from previous 13% to 7%With its new forecast for 2022, CBA further reduces decline in net  inflow of transfers from previous 13% to 7%
CB new forecast for 2022-2023: Armenian GDP growth will slow down  from 12.9% to 4.4%, and inflation will decrease from 10.3% to the  target 4%CB new forecast for 2022-2023: Armenian GDP growth will slow down  from 12.9% to 4.4%, and inflation will decrease from 10.3% to the  target 4%
The first snail breeding farm was established in ArmeniaThe first snail breeding farm was established in Armenia
EBRD improves its 2022 GDP growth forecast for Armenia from previous  4.5% to updated 8%EBRD improves its 2022 GDP growth forecast for Armenia from previous  4.5% to updated 8%
Armenian authorities` intention to construct a new, 1,200 MW, nuclear  power unit is erroneous- expertArmenian authorities` intention to construct a new, 1,200 MW, nuclear  power unit is erroneous- expert
Wizz Air starts operating Rome-Yerevan-Rome flightsWizz Air starts operating Rome-Yerevan-Rome flights
3rd session of Geographical Indications sub-committee under CEPA  between Armenia and EU took place3rd session of Geographical Indications sub-committee under CEPA  between Armenia and EU took place
Armenia`s GDP growth to be double-digit in 2022 - EconomistArmenia`s GDP growth to be double-digit in 2022 - Economist
 USD 25 million to support the private sector USD 25 million to support the private sector
Armenia`s economic activity increased by 13.9% in 8 months of 2022Armenia`s economic activity increased by 13.9% in 8 months of 2022
Armenia-Italy Textile Alliance Forum started in MilanArmenia-Italy Textile Alliance Forum started in Milan
Dmitry Volvach: Trading volumes of the ruble-dram currency pair  increased more than 1000-fold on the Moscow ExchangeDmitry Volvach: Trading volumes of the ruble-dram currency pair  increased more than 1000-fold on the Moscow Exchange
Armenia`s minister of economy hosts WB Country Manager for ArmeniaArmenia`s minister of economy hosts WB Country Manager for Armenia
EBRD launches climate governance platform for business leaders in  Ukraine, Georgia and ArmeniaEBRD launches climate governance platform for business leaders in  Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia
Another step in promoting the Armenian-Russian decentralized  cooperation: Pashinyan`s address to participants of Armenian-Russian Interregional Forum Another step in promoting the Armenian-Russian decentralized  cooperation: Pashinyan`s address to participants of Armenian-Russian Interregional Forum 
Iran Khodro Company starts supplying cars to ArmeniaIran Khodro Company starts supplying cars to Armenia
Armenia, China are considering  possibility of organizing direct  flights between  countriesArmenia, China are considering  possibility of organizing direct  flights between  countries
Expert: With the stabilization of the military-political situation,  the exchange rate in Armenia will also stabilizeExpert: With the stabilization of the military-political situation,  the exchange rate in Armenia will also stabilize
Gradual softening of the global inflationary environment will weaken  the inflationary impact from the external sector on the Armenian  economyGradual softening of the global inflationary environment will weaken  the inflationary impact from the external sector on the Armenian  economy
CBA significantly improves its forecast for GDP growth for 2022 to  12.9%, but expects inflation at 10.3%CBA significantly improves its forecast for GDP growth for 2022 to  12.9%, but expects inflation at 10.3%
Central Bank of Armenia raised refinancing rate from 9.5% to 10%Central Bank of Armenia raised refinancing rate from 9.5% to 10%
TOTAL opens training center in Etchmiadzin for training specialistsTOTAL opens training center in Etchmiadzin for training specialists
WB stands ready to continue to assist Armenian government in  implementation of priority programsWB stands ready to continue to assist Armenian government in  implementation of priority programs
Armenia`s producers to get 1% tax reduction for recalling spoiled  productsArmenia`s producers to get 1% tax reduction for recalling spoiled  products
FLY ONE Armenia transported over 200.000 passengers in its first year  in marketFLY ONE Armenia transported over 200.000 passengers in its first year  in market
Armenia`s minister of economy visits ski resort construction project  in Aragatsotn Armenia`s minister of economy visits ski resort construction project  in Aragatsotn 
Pashinyan instructs to find new investors for mines that are  currently not being developedPashinyan instructs to find new investors for mines that are  currently not being developed
AMD 4.676.836 to the “Rehabilitation City of Heroes” psychological center: the next beneficiary of “The Power of One Dram” is the 4090 FoundationAMD 4.676.836 to the “Rehabilitation City of Heroes” psychological center: the next beneficiary of “The Power of One Dram” is the 4090 Foundation
ACBA Bank fourth bank to join government-sponsored 10% cashback  programme for pensioners and reliefersACBA Bank fourth bank to join government-sponsored 10% cashback  programme for pensioners and reliefers
Presentation of Jobbit instrument held in Yerevan Presentation of Jobbit instrument held in Yerevan 
New power unit under construction at Kursk NPP could be serve as  standard for Armenia - ministerNew power unit under construction at Kursk NPP could be serve as  standard for Armenia - minister
Diaspora factor in Armenia`s investment portfolio is decliningDiaspora factor in Armenia`s investment portfolio is declining
Foreign investors present existing problems to Deputy Prime Minister  of ArmeniaForeign investors present existing problems to Deputy Prime Minister  of Armenia
Araratbank to put up for sale another tranche of dollar bonds worth  $3 million on September 8Araratbank to put up for sale another tranche of dollar bonds worth  $3 million on September 8
Ameriabank starts initial placement of another tranche of USD bonds  in amount of $10 millionAmeriabank starts initial placement of another tranche of USD bonds  in amount of $10 million
Pashinyan hopes that Moscow will regard relocation of Russians as  movement within EAEU: Putin sees nothing wrong with thisPashinyan hopes that Moscow will regard relocation of Russians as  movement within EAEU: Putin sees nothing wrong with this
Armenia`s premier on secondary western sanctions over intensified  contacts with Russia Armenia`s premier on secondary western sanctions over intensified  contacts with Russia 
Read more


Exchange rates
03.10.2022
RUB7.09-0.48
USD406.220.57
EUR397.241.16
GBP455.256.32
CAD295.30-0.60
JPY27.990.09
CNY57.220.08
CHF410.41-3.65