Wednesday, October 5 2016 18:23
Karina Melikyan

IMF improved forecast for Armenian GDP growth to 3.2% from previous 2.25-2.5%

IMF improved forecast for Armenian GDP growth to 3.2% from previous 2.25-2.5%

ArmInfo. IMF has improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2016 to 3.2% with further acceleration in 2017 to 3.4%. In its previous forecast IMF expected 2.25-2.5% GDP growth in Armenia in 2016. Besides, IMF forecasts positive dynamics of prices for Armenia, which at year end of 2016 will drop by 0.5%, according to the new IMF economic outlook presented on October 4 in Washington on the threshold of annual meeting of IMF and WB executive boards.

The IMF has also improved its forecast for Russia's GDP dynamics in 2016. Now, it expects Russia's GDP to decline by 0.8% in 2016 versus previously forecasted 1.2% and to grow by 1.1% in 2017, versus previously forecasted 1%. The IMF calls the continuing economic recovery in Russia as one of the key events in the global economy, which required adjustments in the previous report of IMF that was released in April. In other comments to the figures it is stated that the increase in oil export revenues due to the strengthening of oil prices, brings some relief to exporters of oil and especially to the Russian economy. Nevertheless, the prospects for growth in Russia in 2017 and in the following years remain suppressed in particular due to the impact of sanctions on productivity and investment, the IMF experts note. As for the oil price, according to the report, in 2016 the average price will reach $42.96 per barrel, and in 2017 it will grow to $50.64 per barrel.

The IMF has improved GDP forecast for 2016 in CIS countries expecting 0.3% decline versus early forecasted 1.1% decline. To note, IMF includes Georgia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine in the CIS due to their geographic location and economic similarity. According to the authors of the document improvement of figures in the region is caused mainly due to strengthening of oil prices.

The IMPF traditionally presents the countries of the region in two subgroups-exporters and importers of energy resources. In the first group Uzbekistan (+6%) and Turkmenistan (+5.4%) are leading by the rates of economic growth in 2016 and 2017. The remaining countries of the subgroup are still in negative dynamics.  Russia and Kazakhstan-0.8% drop of GDP for 2016 and in Azerbaijan-2.4%. For 2017 the IMF experts forecast resumption of growth in Russia by 1.1%, in Kazakhstan by 0.6% and in Azerbaijan-1.4%.

Among the importers of energy resources the most optimistic forecasts were given for Tajikistan (6% and 4.5% GDP growth in 2016, 2017), as well as Georgia (3.4% and 5.2% respectively) and Armenia (3.2% and 3.4% respectively). Forecasts for Kyrgyzstan (2.2% and 2.3% GDP growth in 2016-2017), Moldavia (2% and 3% respectively) and even for Ukraine (1.5% and 2.5%) are positive. Decline still continues in Belarus-by 3% and 0.5% in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

As for the inflation, the highest figures within the group are forecasted in Ukraine (15.1%), followed by Kazakhstan (13.1%), Belarus (12.7%) and Azerbaijan (10.2%). Armenia on the contrary will experience drop of prices by 0.5% by the end of the year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also improved the inflation outlook for Russia to 5.9% in 2016 and 4.9% in 2017. The new outlook is much better than July expectations of the IMF, which accordingly totaled 6.6% for this year and 5.2% for 2017. 

To recall, the state budget of Armenia fixed 2.2% GDP growth in 2016, a 12-month inflation  - 4% (+-1.5%). World Bank forecasts a 1.9% (vs previous 2.5%) GDP growth for Armenia in 2016, and 2.8%-2.9% in 2017-2018. EBRD forecasts economic growth to 2% in 2016. The Central Bank of Armenia revised its economic growth forecast for Armenia in 2016 from the previous 1.5%-2.6% to 2.7%- 3.6%, in its monetary policy program for Q2 2016 but in the next November program it will possibly revise forecast towards slackening. According to the statistical data economic activity in Jan-Aug 2016 grew by 2.4% y-o-y versus 3.9% growth in the same period of 2015 mainly due industry (7%) and services (8%).

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Every year, Lori region loses $40 million due to untapped tourism  potentialEvery year, Lori region loses $40 million due to untapped tourism  potential
We are going round in circles: Aram Kocharyan on  current IT  situation in ArmeniaWe are going round in circles: Aram Kocharyan on  current IT  situation in Armenia
Net direct foreign investments in Armenia`s economy up Net direct foreign investments in Armenia`s economy up 
RA president signs laws nationalizing ENA CJSCRA president signs laws nationalizing ENA CJSC
Responsible innovations instead of offshores - CB Responsible innovations instead of offshores - CB 
Armenia, Uruguay to increase bilateral trade turnover Armenia, Uruguay to increase bilateral trade turnover 
Armenian vice-premier takes part in EEC Council`s meeting Armenian vice-premier takes part in EEC Council`s meeting 
Yerevan to host Black Sea Trade and Development Bank`s Annual Meeting  Yerevan to host Black Sea Trade and Development Bank`s Annual Meeting  
Solid Municipal Waste Management project launched in HrazdanSolid Municipal Waste Management project launched in Hrazdan
Armenian IT sector`s output developed as compared with other regional states - expert Armenian IT sector`s output developed as compared with other regional states - expert 
Lawyer on `legal terror` surrounding ENA Lawyer on `legal terror` surrounding ENA 
AraratBank participated in the WEPs regional experience-sharing workshopAraratBank participated in the WEPs regional experience-sharing workshop
1,507 trucks with apricots leave for Russia since beginning of summer 1,507 trucks with apricots leave for Russia since beginning of summer 
TechWeek transforms Vanadzor into an innovation hubTechWeek transforms Vanadzor into an innovation hub
In Q1 2025, unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 13.9%In Q1 2025, unemployment rate in Armenia decreased to 13.9%
Moody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratingsMoody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratings
Armenia`s industrial sector is experiencing a significant  declineArmenia`s industrial sector is experiencing a significant  decline
Power generation in Armenia increased by 3.6% in a yearPower generation in Armenia increased by 3.6% in a year
Armenia`s State Revenue Committee proposes postponing payment of  road, environmental taxes, entry duties Armenia`s State Revenue Committee proposes postponing payment of  road, environmental taxes, entry duties 
46 trucks with Armenian brandy enter Russia 46 trucks with Armenian brandy enter Russia 
Expert: Armenia has every chance to become a key regional  hub for  innovative solutionsExpert: Armenia has every chance to become a key regional  hub for  innovative solutions
IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025
ARMSWISSBANK Launches Mastercard World – A New Premium CardARMSWISSBANK Launches Mastercard World – A New Premium Card
Ministry of Economy: Compared to 2018, job numbers in Armenia  increased by 33.9%Ministry of Economy: Compared to 2018, job numbers in Armenia  increased by 33.9%
Illegal mining in Armenia`s Syunik causes AMD 63mln damage to public Illegal mining in Armenia`s Syunik causes AMD 63mln damage to public 
Rospotrebnadzor requested additional information from competent  authorities in Armenia regarding the reason for the ban of Eskimo ice  cream Rospotrebnadzor requested additional information from competent  authorities in Armenia regarding the reason for the ban of Eskimo ice  cream 
Pashinyan discusses steps for establishing a major AI data center in  ArmeniaPashinyan discusses steps for establishing a major AI data center in  Armenia
In June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and servicesIn June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and services
Armenian products to enter Cyprus and US markets: CIBRS announces National Warehouse program strategyArmenian products to enter Cyprus and US markets: CIBRS announces National Warehouse program strategy
European Investment Bank remains Armenia`s key partner in  infrastructure projects - MinisterEuropean Investment Bank remains Armenia`s key partner in  infrastructure projects - Minister
Armenian Parliament gives  Armenian Parliament gives  "green light" to nationalization of ENA
Armenia`s dividends from ZCMC $113mln since 2022Armenia`s dividends from ZCMC $113mln since 2022
Ardshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholdersArdshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholders
Armenia extends ban on export of scrap metal until Feb. 1 2026 Armenia extends ban on export of scrap metal until Feb. 1 2026 
62 trucks with Armenian brandy cross Russian border 62 trucks with Armenian brandy cross Russian border 
Armenia to fix tariff quota on individual types of goods imported  from Iran Armenia to fix tariff quota on individual types of goods imported  from Iran 
Narek Karapetyan: Almost all infrastructure companies, except for  ENA, have increased their tariffs for servicesNarek Karapetyan: Almost all infrastructure companies, except for  ENA, have increased their tariffs for services
EIB: Education is one of key areas of partnership between EU-Armenia EIB: Education is one of key areas of partnership between EU-Armenia 
Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister participates in  4th International  Conference on Financing for Development in SevilleArmenian Deputy Foreign Minister participates in  4th International  Conference on Financing for Development in Seville
Armenian Prime Minister, President of  Trafigura Group discuss  potential  cooperation  in mining sector  Armenian Prime Minister, President of  Trafigura Group discuss  potential  cooperation  in mining sector  
ADB to provide Armenia with EUR236 million for construction of  Sisian-Kajaran roadADB to provide Armenia with EUR236 million for construction of  Sisian-Kajaran road
Vassilis Maragos: EU willing to strengthen technological cooperation with Armenia through concrete stepsVassilis Maragos: EU willing to strengthen technological cooperation with Armenia through concrete steps
Ardshinbank at the Forefront of Digital Security: Sponsor and Participant of BugBounty 2025 EventArdshinbank at the Forefront of Digital Security: Sponsor and Participant of BugBounty 2025 Event
Armenia`s regulator  approved the sale of 100% of GNC-ALFA s shares  to Viva Armenia CJSCArmenia`s regulator  approved the sale of 100% of GNC-ALFA s shares  to Viva Armenia CJSC
 International Chamber of Commerce ready to assist Armenia in hosting COP-17 International Chamber of Commerce ready to assist Armenia in hosting COP-17
Armenia to extend ban on ferrous metal exportsArmenia to extend ban on ferrous metal exports
IDBank Opens a New Branch at Homplex MallIDBank Opens a New Branch at Homplex Mall
MONEYVAL experts to visit Armenia in September to assess work on money laundering control MONEYVAL experts to visit Armenia in September to assess work on money laundering control 
Goods traceability to be improved in Armenia Goods traceability to be improved in Armenia 
Vaharshapan and Khoi communities to be merged Vaharshapan and Khoi communities to be merged 
Armenian NA OKs ENA nationalization Armenian NA OKs ENA nationalization 
Viva celebrates 20th anniversary: Armenia`s high-tech industry  minister on reforms in Armenia`s telecommunication industry Viva celebrates 20th anniversary: Armenia`s high-tech industry  minister on reforms in Armenia`s telecommunication industry 
Economic diversification meets Armenia`s interests - Kaja Kallas Economic diversification meets Armenia`s interests - Kaja Kallas 
5.1% increase in number of jobs in Armenia 5.1% increase in number of jobs in Armenia 
AraratBank: Special Rate for SWIFT Transfers up to EUR 20,000AraratBank: Special Rate for SWIFT Transfers up to EUR 20,000
Team Telecom Armenia, Team Systems under one roof: new Team Place  smart solutions center  openedTeam Telecom Armenia, Team Systems under one roof: new Team Place  smart solutions center  opened
Armenian Parliament discussing  nationalization of Electric Networks  of Armenia CJSCArmenian Parliament discussing  nationalization of Electric Networks  of Armenia CJSC
Armenia values development of  cooperation with Denmark in  high  technology and renewable energyArmenia values development of  cooperation with Denmark in  high  technology and renewable energy
ArmSwissBank: First in Armenia to Publish a Climate Transition PlanArmSwissBank: First in Armenia to Publish a Climate Transition Plan
Ucom Launches 5G Network in Abovyan and EjmiatsinUcom Launches 5G Network in Abovyan and Ejmiatsin
Read more
Exchange rates
09.07.2025
RUB4.910.01
USD383.82-0.37
EUR449.11-1.47
GBP521.34-0.31
CAD280.24-1.11
JPY26.18-0.06
CNY53.46-0.08
CHF482.060.44