Saturday, October 22 2016 13:30
Svetlana Hovsepyan

Armenian dram appreciating

Armenian dram appreciating

ArmInfo. On October 17-21, the amount of transactions on the interbank forex market of Armenia fell 23.5% after last week's 9%. At the same time, on the intrabank market the operations in terms of USD and EUR demonstrated downward dynamics, while purchase and sale of RUR grew.

Thus, in the current week, AMD revaluated against USD from 477 to 475 AMD/USD1 and EUR from 527 to 518 AMD/1EUR. The AMD/RUR exchange rate was left unchanged- 7.6 AMD/1RUR. In overall, in Jan-Sept 2016, AMD appreciated against USD from 482 to 474 AMD/USD1, depreciating against EUR from 529 to 532 AMD/1EUR, and against RUR from 6.9 to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In September alone, AMD revaluated against USD from 475 to 474 AMD/USD1.  Since the beginning of the year the foreign exchange market showed signs of life rarely making one at a time transaction between March and May:  USD100 thousand in March, USD2.950 mln in April and USD800 thousand in May, after which it was passive. In H1, Central Bank bought USD on the foreign exchange market in June (USD50.2 mln) and April (USD2.4 mln) and sold in January and February (USD53.1 mln and USD41.5mln, respectively).

As the press office of the Central Bank of Armenia has told ArmInfo, on October 17-21 the interbank forex market increased the daily amounts of its transactions, with the largest amount registered on Wednesday - USD5.2 mln and the smallest amount was on Monday - USD500,000. The total amount of transactions on the interbank forex market for Oct 17-21 fell 23.5% to USD12.5 mln (versus the previous USD16.350 mln), forming the average exchange rate of 475.51 AMD/USD1 (versus the previous 476.92 AMD/1USD). In the meantime, on the intrabank forex market USD purchase grew 15% (versus 20% drop a week before), while EUR purchase increased by 6.6% (versus 28% growth a week before), USD sales decreased by 12.6% (versus 14% decline a week before) and EUR sales decreased by 26.4% (versus 57% growth a week before).  At the same time, RUR transactions on the intrabank forex market varied significantly: RUR purchase grew 11.1% after 18% growth a week before, while RUR sales fell to 6.4% after 33% decline a week before. As a result, USD purchase made up 100.4 mln at the average exchange rate of 474.85 AMD/USD1, EUR purchase - 9.7 mln at 520.03 AMD/1EUR, and RUR purchase 1.2 bln RUR at 7.53 AMD/1RUR, whereas USD sales amounted to 91.2 mln at 476.11 AMD/USD1, EUR sales - 13.4 mln EUR at 524.43 AMD/1EUR, and RUR sales - 359.8 mln RUR at 7.64 AMD/1RUR.

According to the source, during the previous week (October 10-15), the Armenian banks provided AMD loans worth 53.7 bln AMD and USD loans worth 54.9 mln. The weekly dynamics of AMD and USD loans was upward.  Particularly, amount of AMD loans grew 25.8% and the amount of USD loans grew 12.7%.  To recall, in 2015, on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia AMD weakened against USD from 477 to 482 AMD/USD1 on average and strengthened against EUR from 571.5 to 529 AMD/1EUR and against Russian ruble from 8.2 to 6.9 AMD/1 RUR.  Between December 14 and 28, the Central Bank made almost daily interventions.  AMD depreciated amid decline of foreign trade turnover (by 20.6%), while import dropped more significantly (by 26.5%) than export (by 3.9%) as well as the decline in transfer inflow to Armenia more than by 30%, and this happened in conditions of low buying capacity of the population and low economic activity in the country.  Since early 2016, AMD started depreciating again on the retail foreign exchange market of Armenia to 496AMD/USD1, however since March it strengthened and stood at 482 AMD/1USD by March 25. In overall in H1 2016 AMD appreciated to 477 AMD/USD1 from 482 AMD/USD1, devaluating in mid Feb (to 496 AMD/USD1 from 482AMD/USD1 on Feb 12), in the first decade of April (to 484.5AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1), in mid May (to 480.5 AMD/USD1 from 479 AMD/USD1-on May 12), in the early and late June (to 479 AMD/USD1 from 478 on June 3 and to 477 AMD/USD1 from 476 AMD/USD1 on June 30). In July AMD appreciated to 476 AMD/USD1 only in the beginning of the third decade, after which it stood at the initial level of 477 AMD/USD1.  In August, AMD demonstrated revaluation - 475 AMD/USD1 by August 31 and stood at this level in the first ten days of September, after which it further revaluated. Thus, by September 30, AMD appreciated against USD and EUR to 474 AMD/USD1 and 532 AMD/1EUR, respectively. Along with it, AMD depreciated against RUR to 7.5 AMD/1RUR. In the first half of October (10-15) AMD devaluated against USD (to 477 AMD/USD1 from 4744 AMD/USD) and RUR (to 7.6 AMD/1RUR from 7.5 AMD/1RUR) and revaluated against EUR to 527 AMD/1EUR from 532 AMD/1EUR. As of October 21. The exchange rates were as follows: 475AMD/1USD. 518AMD/1EUR, and 7,6AMD/1RUR.

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