Armenian Minister of Finance forecasts economy 0,5% growth based on 2016 results

ArmInfo. The real growth of GDP in Armenia based on 2016 results is at 0,5% level, Vardan Aramyan, the Finance Minister stated at resulting press conference in Yerevan on November 23.

According to the Minister, despite the fact that the 2016 Budget contained the GDP real growth indicator at 2,2%, within the deflator index of 4%, and the economy  growth due to the results of the year will form 0,5 within zero deflator.

According to Aramyan, the negative tendency is preconditioned first with  latest  developments in agriculture. Due to the results of the year the industry growth will form about 6,2%, the services sector will register 4,4 % growth. At that, the agricultural sector fixed negative dynamics. In august 2016 the agricultural sector grew for 9,6% versus the same period of 2015, but already in September showed a dropdown for 20%, and in October - for 30%. During detailed studies it became  obvious  that the negative trend is not preconditioned by economic developments in the sphere, but with wrong estimations.

Anyhow, the expectations revision due to GDP growth for the current year is not a reason to do the same for the year of 2017. The progressive kind of economy growth in Armenia in 2017 will be preconditioned with such external developments, like Russian economy growth at 1%, international prices at raw markets and metal prices.  At the same time, the transfers volume decrease lasting for several recent years, which had essentially impacted the trade and consumption indicators, promises to fix growth for 4-5%  in 2017.

The import volume growth of 2% starting with November,  also states the positive expectations. According to the Minister, all this is the evidence that the year of 2017 will be the key period  for Armenian economy rehabilitation and already from 2018  a progress will be fixed in Armenian economy. As Vardan Aramyan stated, the 0,5% GDP growth is not a bad result, considering the fact that EEU countries economy will finish the year with  negative growth. According to the state budget, the GDP growth for 20176 in Armenia was planned at 2,2%, and for 2017 - at 3,2%. The IMF forecasts 1,9% growth, EBRD - 2%, Fitch - up  to 2%. Moody's expects the slowdown of GDP growth in Armenia at 2,2% for the year of 2016. It is interesting that Armenian Central Bank also reduced its forecast in respect to GDP down to 1,3-1,8%. To remind, the 2017 Draft  Budget plans a nominal GDP growth within the limits of 5%, or AMD 5405 bln.  The economic growth will be in the limits of 3,2%, within the deflation index of 1,7 and the deficit of AMD 150, 1 bln.