ArmInfo. According to the report developed by Economic Development and Research Center (EDRC), Armenian Government forecasts in 2017 an economic growth at 3,9% within an increase tendency up to 4% and 4,1 % in 2018 and 2019 respectively. This was stated by Moushegh Toumasyan, the EDRC Chairman, on March 09, while presenting the Economic report 2016, accentuating that the forecast is developed within the framework of state expenditures middle term program.
Toumasyan described positive tendencies of the current year particularly with the industrial sector 6%, agriculture sector - 4%, construction - 0,2 % and services sector - 4,1% growth. At that, EDRC head mentioned that the grants and incomes share in GDP in 2017 will form 21,6% (versus 21,8% in 2016), or 1, 2 trl AMD, the taxes share will increase up to 20, 7% versus that of 20, 4% in 2016 or 1,1 trln AMD, and the expenditures, in right opposite, will decrease down to 24,4% ( versus 25,3% a year ago), or 1,4 trln AMD, with a deficit share of 2,8% versus 3,5% in 2016, or AMD 155 bln. At the same time, Toumasyan mentioned that in 2017 the export growth is forecasted for 5,5% (%,8% in 2018, and 6,1% in 2019), within the import growth for 5,1 % ( 5,2% in 2018 and 5,5% in 2019).
According to EDRC research, foreign state dept will amount 39% PPP in 2017 within the tendency of decrease in 2018 and 2019 to 38% and 37.5% correspondently. At that, Tumasyan emphasized that within the improvement of forecasted economic growth in Russia to 1%, reduction of transfer flows from Russia will stop in Armenia. However, despite these outlined tendencies of development, he pointed out that Armenia has significant foreign dept lade and problems, related to unsustainable tax policy.
From his side, Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Investments of Armenia Tigran Khachatryan, expressing gratitude for prepared report, emphasized the importance the work done by the Centre. He noted that the start of the year was marked with the growth of gross industrial producing to 17% on the growth of export over 35%, which, according to him, is in certain level the basis to relay on positive outcome, related to economic indexes. In this relation Khachatryan emphasized that reported results should not be a reason for tranquility, on the contrary, those should lead to further steps. "I understand that public wants to see more considerable results, but hard times also have their positive sides, leading to increasing stability and competitive ability of economy, which helps to display the week sides and find effective decisions," he noted.
To note, when the journalists tried to talk with the Deputy Minister about pronounced forecasts more detailed, Khachatryan asked to wait till the end of the event. However, the Deputy Minister soon left the event and did not keep his promise. To recall the annual report EDRC passes in Armenia 7th year by order of GIZ and Ministry of Economic Collaboration and Development of Germany . To note, the World Bank forecasts Armenian GDP growth at 2.7% for 2017, the IMF - at 3.4%, the Eurasian Development Bank - at 2.9%, Fitch - at 2.1%, and the Armenian state budget mentions 3.2% GDP growth for 2017. In Jan-Dec 2016, the economic activity growth in Armenia slackened to 0.5% from 3.1% in 2015, with services (7.1%) and industry (6.7%) remaining the economy drivers.
According to the Central Bank of Armenia, in 2016 the inflow of individuals' transfers to Armenia dropped by 6.1% to $1.5 bln, while the outflow grew by 7.4% to $817 mln. As a result, the net inflow of individuals' transfers fell by 17.8% in 2016. The inflow of transfers from Russia to Armenia dropped by 11.1% to $896.9 mln in 2016, while the outflow grew by 16.5% to $333.4 mln, and the net inflow of transfers from Russia amounted to $563.5 mln (down 22% versus 2015). Russia's share in the inflow and outflow of transfers was the biggest - 58.5% and 40.8% versus 61.8% and 37.6% a year before.