Tuesday, May 16 2017 19:55
Naira Badalian

Head of Armenian Ministry of Finance explained discrepancy between forecasts of international financial structures and Government of Armenia regarding growth of Armenia`s GDP

ArmInfo. In the forecasts of the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) regarding  the economic growth of Armenia in 2017, some elements of conservatism  are observed. Armenian Finance Minister Vardan Aramyan stated this in  an interview with ArmInfo, commenting on the discrepancy between the  forecasts of international structures and the Armenian Cabinet  regarding the growth rate of the Armenian economy.

According to the head of the Armenian Ministry of Finance, in  general, the IMF carries out forecasts for the growth of the economy  every 6 months: adjustments for the global economy are made  quarterly, and for specific countries - every six months. "If we  consider the average indicator of Armenia's economic growth since  2009, it can be noted that a relatively high growth of 7.2% was  recorded only in 2011. Then we permanently hold in the areas of 3%  growth, and the 2016th was closed with 0.2-0.3% GDP, and economic  activity was 0.5%. Against this background, it would be unrealistic  to forecast a 4-5% GDP growth, since all econometric models are based  on backward-looking (orientation to past results, ed.). In this  connection, it is not surprising that the forecasts of international  structures on the rates of Armenia's economic growth range from 2.7%  to 3.2%, in keeping with the principles of conservatism," he said.

To note, according to the state budget of the Republic of Armenia,  economic growth in 2017 is planned at 3.2%, nominal GDP growth is  within 5%, with a deflation index of 1.7% (against 2.4% in 2016), a  deficit - to 150.1 billion AMD. According to the updated forecast of  the Central Bank of Armenia, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will  be 3.2-4.4%. According to the World Bank's forecast, GDP growth in  Armenia in 2017 will be 2.7%, according to the IMF forecast by 2.9%,  according to Fitch forecast - 2.1%, the United Nations - 2.7%, EDB -  2.9% and Asian Development Bank - 2.2%. 

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