ArmInfo. In the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) regarding the economic growth of Armenia in 2017, some elements of conservatism are observed. Armenian Finance Minister Vardan Aramyan stated this in an interview with ArmInfo, commenting on the discrepancy between the forecasts of international structures and the Armenian Cabinet regarding the growth rate of the Armenian economy.
According to the head of the Armenian Ministry of Finance, in general, the IMF carries out forecasts for the growth of the economy every 6 months: adjustments for the global economy are made quarterly, and for specific countries - every six months. "If we consider the average indicator of Armenia's economic growth since 2009, it can be noted that a relatively high growth of 7.2% was recorded only in 2011. Then we permanently hold in the areas of 3% growth, and the 2016th was closed with 0.2-0.3% GDP, and economic activity was 0.5%. Against this background, it would be unrealistic to forecast a 4-5% GDP growth, since all econometric models are based on backward-looking (orientation to past results, ed.). In this connection, it is not surprising that the forecasts of international structures on the rates of Armenia's economic growth range from 2.7% to 3.2%, in keeping with the principles of conservatism," he said.
To note, according to the state budget of the Republic of Armenia, economic growth in 2017 is planned at 3.2%, nominal GDP growth is within 5%, with a deflation index of 1.7% (against 2.4% in 2016), a deficit - to 150.1 billion AMD. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will be 3.2-4.4%. According to the World Bank's forecast, GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 will be 2.7%, according to the IMF forecast by 2.9%, according to Fitch forecast - 2.1%, the United Nations - 2.7%, EDB - 2.9% and Asian Development Bank - 2.2%.