Tuesday, August 1 2017 20:10
Karine Melikyan

Growing Armenian public debt on background of migration deepened specific debt per capita load by July 2017 to $ 2.1 thousand

Growing Armenian public debt on background of migration deepened  specific debt per capita load by July 2017 to $ 2.1 thousand

ArmInfo. The annual growth of  Armenia's public debt by 15% to $ 6.1 billion (2.95 trillion AMD) by  July 2017 is due to the growth of both external and internal debt.  According to the preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance,  provided to ArmInfo by the National Statistical Service, the external  debt increased by 9% to $ 4.9 billion (2.4 trillion AMD), while  domestic debt grew 33% to $ 1.2 billion (576.2 billion AMD). By way  of comparison, in the first half of 2016 the annual growth of  external debt was 12.1% and domestic by 26% increased the total state  debt of Armenia by 14.2%.

The degree of coverage of external debt with gold and foreign  exchange reserves decreased during the first half of 2017 from 45.9%  to 40.8%, against 35.1% a year earlier. In the annual section,  reserves grew by 28.6%, but only in the first half of this year.  Decreased by 8.5%, with annual growth of external debt by 9% and  semi-annual growth by 3%.

The degree of coverage of external debt with gold and foreign  exchange reserves decreased during the first half of 2017 from 45.9%  to 40.8%, against 35.1% a year earlier. In the annual section,  reserves grew by 28.6%, but only in the first half of this year  decreased by 8.5%, with annual growth of external debt by 9% and  semi-annual growth by 3%.

In the structure of external debt, 89.8% or $ 4.4 billion accounted  for by the government, and the remaining 10.2% or $ 559.9 million -  by the Central Bank. Moreover, the government's external debt has  increased by 10% per annum, against the background of which the  growth of the external debt of the Central Bank by 12.6%, against the  higher growth rates in the same period of 2016 - 11.7% and 15.6%,  respectively. Only for the first half of the year 2017 the  government's external debt grew by 2.3%, with the growth of the  external debt of the Central Bank by 10.9%, versus growth of 3.5% and  4.4%, respectively, for the first half of 2016.

In the structure of the domestic state debt, state bonds dominate,  for the first half of 2017 the share fell from 91% to 89.1% ($ 1.1  billion or 513.1 billion AMD), with an annual increase in absolute  value of 37.3%. Then followed the Armenian Eurobonds - $ 122.1  million or 58.7 billion AMD, which increased in the first half of  2017 from 8.4% to 10.2%, with an annual increase of 50.4%. The rest  is covered by guarantees - 0.7% ($ 9 million), with an annual  increase in absolute value of only 1.1%. Only in the first half of  2017 the volume of state bonds in the domestic state debt grew by  2.6%, Armenian eurobonds by 27.7%, guarantees by 28.6%, while in the  first half of 2016 the government bonds demonstrated higher growth  rates - 16 , 8%, Armenian Eurobonds were in decline - 17.2%, and  guarantees jumped 4.5 times.

Taking into account the real scale of migration, the burden of public  debt per capita would be much higher (according to statistical data  for 2011-2017 the population of the Republic of Armenia decreased  from 3.274 million to 2.980 million). As a result of 2016, the share  of the national debt in Armenia's GDP was 56.6%, compared to 48.7% in  2015. And only in terms of external debt, the share in GDP grew from  41.4% in 2015 to 45.8% in 2016. The GDP growth of Armenia slowed down  in 2016 to 0.2% from 3.2% in 2015. By January 1, 2017, the specific  debt load per capita reached $ 2 thousand, of which over $ 1.6  thousand came from external debt. In 2016, the degree of coverage of  external debt with gold and foreign exchange reserves increased from  41.1% to 45.9% against the backdrop of an increase in the external  debt for this period by 11.6%, with an increase in reserves by 22.2%. 

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