Tuesday, August 29 2017 12:25

ArmInfo. The Central Bank of Armenia has updated the unemployment forecast for 2017 - 17.9%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous bar.

In the medium term, against the background of expected economic growth, the Central Bank forecasts an annual decline in unemployment by 0.3-0.5 percentage points. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank, the average nominal wage will increase by 3.1% in 2017 (against the previously expected 2%), with an annual growth rate of 0.8-1.2 percentage points accelerating. Thus, in the private sector, the average nominal wage is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2017 (similar to the previous forecast), and in the public sector - by 1% (against the previously forecast decline of 0.7%). In the medium term, along with the acceleration of economic growth and the approach of inflation to the target threshold, the growth rate of wages will also accelerate. The updated forecast of the Central Bank for 2018 and 2019 almost does not differ from the previous one. In particular, previously the Central Bank expected in the private sector to increase wages in 2018 by 5.2% and in 2019 by 6.5%, while in the public sector - in 2018 by 3.4% and in 2019 - by 4.9%.

In 2017, the Central Bank expects that the growth rates of productivity will exceed the upward trend in wages, as a result of which inflationary pressure of 0.2-0.4% will be gradually neutralized in the consumer market. In the forecast period, no significant impact of the labor market on inflation is expected.

Note that in 2016 the minimum wage was not reviewed and was maintained at 55,000 drams, which came into effect on July 1, 2015. In 2017, the minimum wage threshold will also not be revised. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, the nominal wage in Armenia has sharply slowed the growth rate in 2016 from 7.7% to 1.7% per annum. In particular, wages in the public sector in 2016. decreased by 1.8%, against growth of 8.2% a year earlier, while wages in the private sector slowed the annual growth rate from 7% to 4.6%. The unemployment rate in Armenia fell in 2016 from 18.5% to 18%. In the first quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate rose to 19% from 18.3% in the first quarter of 2016. Nominal wages increased by 2.7% per annum in January-July 2017, while wages in the public sector remained unchanged, and private salaries increased 3.7%, while in July this year. By July 2016 the growth rates are as follows: nominal wages - 4,2%, incl. in the public sector - 0.9% and in the private sector - 6.6%.