Tuesday, August 29 2017 17:43
Karine Melikyan

Armenian Central Bank forecast for 2017: The deficit of the state budget will reach 120.6 billion AMD or 2.2% of GDP

Armenian Central Bank forecast for 2017: The deficit of the state budget will reach 120.6 billion AMD or 2.2% of GDP

ArmInfo. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the deficit of the state budget in 2017 will reach 120.6 billion AMD or 2.2% of GDP, against the previously projected 2.8%. This is noted in the updated monetary and credit program of the Central Bank of Armenia.

The ratio of taxes to GDP, according to the forecasts of the Central Bank, will be 22.2% in 2017, which is almost the same as the previous forecast, but 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous year. The ratio of state budget expenditures to GDP in 2017, the Central Bank expects at the level of 25.8%, which is 0.7% percentage points lower than the previous forecast and 2.2 percentage points lower than last year. During 2017, it is planned to save government spending mainly on capital expenditures through external financing.

Against the backdrop of revised GDP forecasts to accelerate growth, the impact of fiscal policy on gross demand in 2017 is estimated to be 4 percentage points below the previous forecast, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous forecast. In the medium term, fiscal stabilization will be aimed at the gradual reduction of the deficit to stabilize the debt. Nevertheless, in 2018-2020 the deficit-to-GDP ratio is expected to average 2.4% (against the average 2.2% in 2017-2019). And despite this growth in the average indicator due to the interest payments on the debt provided in the medium-term perspective, the impact of fiscal policy on gross demand will be restraining.

From the third quarter of 2017 to the 1st quarter of 2018, the change in gross demand and the situation in the labor market will have a weak deflationary pressure on the consumer market-an average of 0.6-0.8%.  Moreover, the impact of the fiscal policy, private demand and the labor market on the price level will be deflationary by an average of 1.1-1.3%, and the impact from external demand will be inflationary by an average of 0.4-0.6%.

According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, in 2016 the deficit of the state budget was 272.5 billion drams with growth of 11.2%. Incomes of the state budget grew by 0.7% in 2016 to 1.2 trillion drams, while expenditures grew by 2.6% to 1.4 trillion drams. The GDP of Armenia increased by 0.2% in 2016 to 5.068 trillion drams ($ 10.5 billion), against the growth of 3.2% in 2015. The GDP deflator index in 2016 was 100.5%, against 101.2% in 2015.


News
Iranian entrepreneurs are interested in opening joint ventures with  Armenia in a number of areasIranian entrepreneurs are interested in opening joint ventures with  Armenia in a number of areas
Major Armenian-Russian business forum to be held in YerevanMajor Armenian-Russian business forum to be held in Yerevan
Gyumri Shirak Airport is ready to serve European budget flightsGyumri Shirak Airport is ready to serve European budget flights
Mher Grigoryan reports on certain difficulties in negotiations with  GazpromMher Grigoryan reports on certain difficulties in negotiations with  Gazprom
Standing Parliamentary Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary  Affairs approved Artak Manukyan`s candidacy for the position of  member of the Central Bank CouncilStanding Parliamentary Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary  Affairs approved Artak Manukyan`s candidacy for the position of  member of the Central Bank Council
Mher Grigoryan: In terms of the opening of railways, solutions began  to be consideredMher Grigoryan: In terms of the opening of railways, solutions began  to be considered
GeoProMining  announces  completion of the second stage of Agarak CMC  modernization project GeoProMining  announces  completion of the second stage of Agarak CMC  modernization project 
IMF sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5%, but warns: IMF sharply improved its forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2021 to 6.5%, but warns: "Downside risks remain elevated" 
Economy Minister considers Central Bank`s updated economic forecasts  as pessimisticEconomy Minister considers Central Bank`s updated economic forecasts  as pessimistic
Armenian government to allocate about 357.5 million drams to complete  15 subvention programsArmenian government to allocate about 357.5 million drams to complete  15 subvention programs
Economy Minister on the situation with Iranian trucks: We have a  Economy Minister on the situation with Iranian trucks: We have a  "Plan B"
 Armenian accountants and auditors can grow professionally with help  of British Association of Chartered Certified Accountants Armenian accountants and auditors can grow professionally with help  of British Association of Chartered Certified Accountants
Armenian government approves the ratification of the Agreement of the  CIS countries in the fight against IT crimesArmenian government approves the ratification of the Agreement of the  CIS countries in the fight against IT crimes
Armenia and Singapore exclude double taxationArmenia and Singapore exclude double taxation
Government of Armenia ratified the agreement between the governments  of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Malta on the avoidance  of double taxationGovernment of Armenia ratified the agreement between the governments  of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Malta on the avoidance  of double taxation
The leadership of SRC of Armenia at a meeting with the head of the  FCS of the Russian Federation noted the special importance of  enhancing contactsThe leadership of SRC of Armenia at a meeting with the head of the  FCS of the Russian Federation noted the special importance of  enhancing contacts
American company Wabtec shows interest in the Armenian market American company Wabtec shows interest in the Armenian market 
Deputy Prime Minister on a possible increase in gas prices: Gazprom  insists that the amount of profit stipulated in the 2013 agreement  does not satisfy themDeputy Prime Minister on a possible increase in gas prices: Gazprom  insists that the amount of profit stipulated in the 2013 agreement  does not satisfy them
Drip irrigation. 5 questions and answers with Converse BankDrip irrigation. 5 questions and answers with Converse Bank
World Bank`s updated Groundswell report warns: Climate change could  force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by  2050World Bank`s updated Groundswell report warns: Climate change could  force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by  2050
Expert: The unprecedented rise in gas prices in Europe and EAEU  membership open new opportunities for ArmeniaExpert: The unprecedented rise in gas prices in Europe and EAEU  membership open new opportunities for Armenia
Central Bank of Armenia: In Jan-July 2021, the net inflow of  transfers from individuals increased by 78.5% per annumCentral Bank of Armenia: In Jan-July 2021, the net inflow of  transfers from individuals increased by 78.5% per annum
Efforts are underway to enhance seismic safety at Armenian NPPEfforts are underway to enhance seismic safety at Armenian NPP
EEC Forecast: In 2022, the negative foreign trade balance in the EAEU  will be reduced from $ 5.8 billion to $ 2.5 billion EEC Forecast: In 2022, the negative foreign trade balance in the EAEU  will be reduced from $ 5.8 billion to $ 2.5 billion 
Central Bank of Armenia: Consistent tightening of monetary conditions  has a sufficient impact on the regulation of progressive consumer  demand and on curbing of  inflationCentral Bank of Armenia: Consistent tightening of monetary conditions  has a sufficient impact on the regulation of progressive consumer  demand and on curbing of  inflation
Central Bank upgrades Armenia`s economic growth forecast for 2021 to  5.6%Central Bank upgrades Armenia`s economic growth forecast for 2021 to  5.6%
Central Bank Governor: Inflation in Armenia is more supply-drivenCentral Bank Governor: Inflation in Armenia is more supply-driven
Central Bank: Transfers from USA to Armenia are growing rapidlyCentral Bank: Transfers from USA to Armenia are growing rapidly
Armenia and Ukraine launched the improvement of trade and economic  relationsArmenia and Ukraine launched the improvement of trade and economic  relations
Official and real y-o-y inflation continues to accelerate in ArmeniaOfficial and real y-o-y inflation continues to accelerate in Armenia
Central Bank of Armenia once again raised the refinancing rate - from  7% to 7.25%Central Bank of Armenia once again raised the refinancing rate - from  7% to 7.25%
About 2 billion drams to be allocated for the installation of  photovoltaic stations in seven regions of ArmeniaAbout 2 billion drams to be allocated for the installation of  photovoltaic stations in seven regions of Armenia
"Veolia Djur" proposes to increase water tariff by 43.7 drams
Mher Grigoryan: Trade and economic relations between Armenia and  Ukraine have great potential for developmentMher Grigoryan: Trade and economic relations between Armenia and  Ukraine have great potential for development
"Become a shareholder": ACBA Bank issued its first 500.000 shares  with a total volume of 7.5 billion drams
IDBank as a sponsor of the charity concert IDBank as a sponsor of the charity concert "Armenian Rock for Children with Cancer"
As of September 10, 2021, tax collection exceeded indicators of  pre-crisis 2019 by 4.9% in ArmeniaAs of September 10, 2021, tax collection exceeded indicators of  pre-crisis 2019 by 4.9% in Armenia
The collector coin dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the Republic  of Armenia has been issued by Central BankThe collector coin dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the Republic  of Armenia has been issued by Central Bank
Minister of Finance of Armenia and Ambassador of India discussed  possible directions for development of cooperationMinister of Finance of Armenia and Ambassador of India discussed  possible directions for development of cooperation
 Construction of Construction of "Friendship Bridge" on Armenian-Georgian border is in  full swing
Armenia reduced exports of molybdenum, zinc and copper concentratesArmenia reduced exports of molybdenum, zinc and copper concentrates
Armenia increased export of all alcoholic beverages produced in  countryArmenia increased export of all alcoholic beverages produced in  country
Armenia significantly increased volume of exports and imports of  fruit and berry cropsArmenia significantly increased volume of exports and imports of  fruit and berry crops
Armenia in H1 2021 increased grape exports by 66.7% Armenia in H1 2021 increased grape exports by 66.7% 
Regular meeting of Armenian-German intergovernmental commission took  place in BerlinRegular meeting of Armenian-German intergovernmental commission took  place in Berlin
Exclusive opportunity for VISA Signature cardholders of Converse BankExclusive opportunity for VISA Signature cardholders of Converse Bank
Armenia significantly reduced sugar importsArmenia significantly reduced sugar imports
Imports of oil products to Armenia grew by 3.7% in the first half of  2021Imports of oil products to Armenia grew by 3.7% in the first half of  2021
Armenia continues to reduce imports and exports of passenger carsArmenia continues to reduce imports and exports of passenger cars
Expert: Institutional solutions are needed in the development of  public-private dialogue (PPD)Expert: Institutional solutions are needed in the development of  public-private dialogue (PPD)
Diamond exports from Armenia have increased several-foldDiamond exports from Armenia have increased several-fold
Online processes will replace paperwork and the need to visit customsOnline processes will replace paperwork and the need to visit customs
About 100 thousand residents of 5 regions of Armenia will receive  round-the-clock water supplyAbout 100 thousand residents of 5 regions of Armenia will receive  round-the-clock water supply
Public-private dialogue is not going well in ArmeniaPublic-private dialogue is not going well in Armenia
YOY inflation in Armenia reaches 8.8% in August 2021YOY inflation in Armenia reaches 8.8% in August 2021
Armenia cuts gold exports, increasing importsArmenia cuts gold exports, increasing imports
Exports grow faster than imports in Armenia`s foreign trade with the  EU countries- 41% versus 11%Exports grow faster than imports in Armenia`s foreign trade with the  EU countries- 41% versus 11%
Armenia`s foreign trade turnover with EAEU countries reaches  double-digit growthArmenia`s foreign trade turnover with EAEU countries reaches  double-digit growth
As of the end of August, 488 thousand tourists visited ArmeniaAs of the end of August, 488 thousand tourists visited Armenia
Armenia slightly reduced the export of aluminum foil in H1, 2021Armenia slightly reduced the export of aluminum foil in H1, 2021
Read more


Exchange rates
17.09.2021
RUB6.68-0.04
USD484.93-1.44
EUR571.39-1.07
GBP668.43-3.64
CAD383.25-1.51
JPY44.10-0.35
CNY75.15-0.46
CHF523.12-3.31