Thursday, October 12 2017 14:41
Naira Badalian

Atom Margaryan: the indicators set in the draft budget-2018 are economically justified and realistic

Atom Margaryan: the indicators set in the draft budget-2018 are economically justified and realistic

ArmInfo. Atom Margaryan, head of the Center for Innovative and Institutional Research at the YSU, believes that the indicators laid down in the draft of the main financial document for the next year are realistic. "The budget for 2018 is based on the realities of the current year and is justified from the point of view of the overall macroeconomic situation," the economist said in an interview with ArmInfo on October 12.

Despite last year's recession in the economy, due to which in 2016 Armenia closed with an economic growth of only 0.2%, according to the expert, in the spring of this year, due to internal and external conditions, by the end of 2017, he forecasted GDP growth at the level of 4-4.5%, against the budgeted 3.2%.

Atom Margaryan notes the validity of his optimistic forecasts. In 9 months, growth was registered in almost all spheres of the economy. The indicators of economic activity in Armenia rose in the first eight months to 5.5%. The general picture is spoiled only by the spheres of agriculture and construction. According to Margaryan, the negative trend is likely to continue, and the year 2017 Armenia will close in this part with a recession.

The government's anti-crisis measures, reflected in the draft budget, if implemented, will provide economic growth of 4.5%, the expert said. In this context, he considers the conservative approach of the government in the line of current spending within the range of 2-2.5% to be justified. Despite the apparent unpopularity of this policy, raising pensions and benefits could be too risky, and the economic effect, for example, on increasing the purchasing power of the population, would be scanty.

Meanwhile, raising capital expenditures, namely, in the line of expenditures, it is expected to reach AMD 1 464.2 trillion, of which capital expenditures will make 175 billion drams instead of last year's 98.6 billion drams, the government will provide the economy with an investment-multiplier effect. The expert is also not afraid of an increase in the deficit from last year's 150.1 billion drams to the expected 156.9 billion (deficit / GDP is 2.7%), and that of which about 80 billion drams will be financed from external sources, the rest from internal resources , which in turn will increase the country's debt burden. "By directing budget funds to capital expenditures - agriculture, development of the irrigation system, energy, road construction, namely, the government plans to invest in these areas, the state encourages private investments that will result in job creation, expansion of business and, ultimately, lead to economic growth, "Atom Margaryan said.

The authors of the draft budget for the next year, according to the economist, also took care of the eradication of the "shadow" in the country's economy. According to Margaryan, the forecasted increase in the total budget revenues by AMD 1.307 trillion (without receiving interbudgetary transfers) by 100 billion drams due to the increase in tax revenues will be realized due to economic growth and reduction of the shadow economy. The expert reinforces his optimism with the data of the State Revenue Committee, which has repeatedly stated about the reduction of the "shadow" and the growth of revenues due to the increased efficiency of tax administration.  Positive expectations, he said, in addition to domestic developments, are also due to external developments.  Forecasts on the growth rate of the Russian economy, the expected signing of an agreement with the EU on a comprehensive and expanded partnership that will strengthen the European vector of Armenia's foreign economic policy, and deepen economic cooperation with Iran can be a fertile ground for maintaining positive trends and further development.

It should be noted that Armenia's consolidated budget for the year 2018 in terms of revenues will make 1.307 trillion drams (excluding intergovernmental transfers), of which taxes are 1.247.9 trillion drams. In the line of expenditures, it is expected to be AMD 1 464.2 trillion, of which capital expenditures will make 175 billion drams instead of last year's 98.6 billion drams. The deficit / GDP will be 2.7%, the GDP- deflator is planned at 3.5%. By the end of 2018, the national debt, compared with the current year, will grow another $ 300 million - to over $ 7 billion and will account for 60% of GDP.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
ARMECONOMBANK Summarizes 2024 Results with New Opportunities for ProgressARMECONOMBANK Summarizes 2024 Results with New Opportunities for Progress
How to Enjoy Summer to the Fullest
Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration, IRI Ambassador discuss third Iran-Armenia high voltage power line construction progressDeputy Minister of Territorial Administration, IRI Ambassador discuss third Iran-Armenia high voltage power line construction progress
Health Fund for Children of Armenia is the Beneficiary of Health Fund for Children of Armenia is the Beneficiary of "The Power of One Dram" Program in June
Armenia to host  prestigious international wine competition  in 2026Armenia to host  prestigious international wine competition  in 2026
WANO experts get acquainted with production process at Armenian NPPWANO experts get acquainted with production process at Armenian NPP
Armenia`s Cabinet approves Isakov-Arshakunyats road construction project in Yerevan Armenia`s Cabinet approves Isakov-Arshakunyats road construction project in Yerevan 
Armenia`s Cabinet approves allocation of $1mln to Asian Development  Fund Armenia`s Cabinet approves allocation of $1mln to Asian Development  Fund 
AI Factory to become available to Armenian eco-startup environment - ministerAI Factory to become available to Armenian eco-startup environment - minister
Cooperation with Armenia will help lay foundation for AI development in region - NVIDIACooperation with Armenia will help lay foundation for AI development in region - NVIDIA
Armenia`s banking sector to tighten capital buffersArmenia`s banking sector to tighten capital buffers
Digitization of justice discussed in ArmeniaDigitization of justice discussed in Armenia
Team Group, NVIDIA, and Firebird Announce a $500 Million Megaproject to Build a Regional AI Supercomputing HubTeam Group, NVIDIA, and Firebird Announce a $500 Million Megaproject to Build a Regional AI Supercomputing Hub
Minister: $500 million  artificial intelligence plant to be  constructed in ArmeniaMinister: $500 million  artificial intelligence plant to be  constructed in Armenia
RA SRC Chairman, EEC Minister for Customs Cooperation discuss current  cooperation  RA SRC Chairman, EEC Minister for Customs Cooperation discuss current  cooperation  
Armenia to use space information for disaster risk managementArmenia to use space information for disaster risk management
In 2024, vegetable and fruit export from Armenia exceeded 144,000 tonsIn 2024, vegetable and fruit export from Armenia exceeded 144,000 tons
Ameriabank joins TOON EXPO to be held first time in MoscowAmeriabank joins TOON EXPO to be held first time in Moscow
"Plain and Simple": Financial Literacy with AraratBank
Deputy Economy Minister:  Out of 557 completed customs declarations for Armenian alcoholic beverages exporters, 70% have been accepted by the destination country`s customs Deputy Economy Minister:  Out of 557 completed customs declarations for Armenian alcoholic beverages exporters, 70% have been accepted by the destination country`s customs 
Hail damages 8,700 hectares of agricultural land - officialHail damages 8,700 hectares of agricultural land - official
Construction of five reservoirs planned in Armenia - minister Construction of five reservoirs planned in Armenia - minister 
Lower population growth in ArmeniaLower population growth in Armenia
Safe use of nuclear energy by Armenia discussed in Nice Safe use of nuclear energy by Armenia discussed in Nice 
Armenian trucks temporarily barred from entering Georgia Armenian trucks temporarily barred from entering Georgia
Central Bank to establish a regulatory framework for  crypto assets  sector within 1.5 year timeframeCentral Bank to establish a regulatory framework for crypto assets sector within 1.5 year timeframe
Martin Galstyan:  Armenian dram has weakened against US dollar in  terms of real effective rateMartin Galstyan: Armenian dram has weakened against US dollar in terms of real effective rate
CB Chairman on cases of financial fraud: Banks to extend moratorium  on credit obligations until court verdictCB Chairman on cases of financial fraud: Banks to extend moratorium on credit obligations until court verdict
Sinanyan: 70% of IGorts program participants remained in Armenia in recent years
Martin Galstyan: Non-interest income growth in Armenia`s banking  sector to continue in 2025Martin Galstyan: Non-interest income growth in Armenia`s banking sector to continue in 2025
Mher Grigoryan to take part in SPIEF-2025Mher Grigoryan to take part in SPIEF-2025
Zhanna Andreasyan: Compared to 2018, funding for science in Armenia  increased by 280%Zhanna Andreasyan: Compared to 2018, funding for science in Armenia  increased by 280%
Pashinyan discusses country`s tax policyPashinyan discusses country`s tax policy
Armenia`s foreign trade with EAEU decreasing, while increasing with EUArmenia`s foreign trade with EAEU decreasing, while increasing with EU
Tigran Khachatryan, Philip Morris International Regional President  discuss  potential areas for cooperationTigran Khachatryan, Philip Morris International Regional President  discuss  potential areas for cooperation
Armenia, EEC discussing prospects for cooperation in customs servicesArmenia, EEC discussing prospects for cooperation in customs services
RA State Revenue Committee reveals shadow turnover in Tsakhkadzor casino RA State Revenue Committee reveals shadow turnover in Tsakhkadzor casino 
Project of 11th station of Yerevan Metro approved Project of 11th station of Yerevan Metro approved 
Armenia`s industry in decline Armenia`s industry in decline 
23% decline in output of Armenia`s metallurgical industry 23% decline in output of Armenia`s metallurgical industry 
Wine output in decline in Armenia Wine output in decline in Armenia 
4.9% y/y increase in electric energy output in Armenia4.9% y/y increase in electric energy output in Armenia
Armenia`s income tax refund for Armenia`s income tax refund for "mortgage holders" expected to peak  in 2026 before gradually decreasing
EU updates airspace EU updates airspace "blacklist". European skies remain inaccessible  to Armenian airlines 
Exclusive fintech startup  launched in partnership with Converse Bank  - Superra application for transactions on secondary securities marketExclusive fintech startup  launched in partnership with Converse Bank  - Superra application for transactions on secondary securities market
Armenia`s foreign trade turnover  significantly decreased due to   sharp decline in  export and import of diamonds and goldArmenia`s foreign trade turnover  significantly decreased due to   sharp decline in  export and import of diamonds and gold
RA Ministry of Economy planning to expand investment instrumentsRA Ministry of Economy planning to expand investment instruments
All that glitters is not gold: Economy Minister continues to insist  on limited impact of gold re-export on GDPAll that glitters is not gold: Economy Minister continues to insist  on limited impact of gold re-export on GDP
Iran-Armenia power line project 80% finished - minister Iran-Armenia power line project 80% finished - minister 
Tehran hopes for commissioning of Iran-Armenia high-voltage line this  year Tehran hopes for commissioning of Iran-Armenia high-voltage line this  year 
Research is ongoing in Armenia to select model for new nuclear power  unit - ministerResearch is ongoing in Armenia to select model for new nuclear power  unit - minister
Head of RA State Revenue Committee on reasons for ZCMC removed from list of 1,000 major taxpayers Head of RA State Revenue Committee on reasons for ZCMC removed from list of 1,000 major taxpayers 
MP for indexation of salaries and pensions in ArmeniaMP for indexation of salaries and pensions in Armenia
Georgia bans import of large batch of flowers from ArmeniaGeorgia bans import of large batch of flowers from Armenia
Wildberries Director for International Business Development announces  opening of PRO WB Entrepreneurship Development and Support Center in ArmeniaWildberries Director for International Business Development announces  opening of PRO WB Entrepreneurship Development and Support Center in Armenia
USD, RUB transactions down in Armenia`s interbank foreign exchange market June 2 to 6, 2025USD, RUB transactions down in Armenia`s interbank foreign exchange market June 2 to 6, 2025
RA Minister of Finance,  KfW representatives discuss implementation  of major infrastructure projectsRA Minister of Finance,  KfW representatives discuss implementation  of major infrastructure projects
Expert: Sober risk assessment prompted suspension of launch of   Turkey`s Expert: Sober risk assessment prompted suspension of launch of   Turkey`s "largest gas hub" 
Minister: In 2025, it is planned to construct and restore a similar  number of roads as last yearMinister: In 2025, it is planned to construct and restore a similar  number of roads as last year
Armenian Deputy PM,  KfW representative discuss  implemented projects Armenian Deputy PM,  KfW representative discuss  implemented projects 
Read more
Exchange rates
13.06.2025
RUB4.820.03
USD383.23-0.25
EUR440.91-3.77
GBP518.66-2.45
CAD281.06-0.19
JPY26.55-0.17
CNY53.36-0.08
CHF470.86-1.35