Wednesday, November 8 2017 18:24
Karine Melikyan

EBRD  delivers better forecast for economic growth in Armenia for 2017-2018

ArmInfo. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2017 from the previous 2.5% to 3.5%, expecting similar growth in 2018 (against the previous 3%). This is stated in the November review "Regional Economic Prospects in the countries of EBRD presence" (Regional Economic Prospects in EBRD Countries of Operations).

"Armenia's economic growth in the first half of 2017 turnover, after almost stagnating in 2016. GDP of the country in the first quarter of 2017 grew by 6.5% per annum, in the second - by 5.5% per annum. The growth of the economy was provided by strong export indicators, and as well as the restoration of the growth of remittances to Armenia after their three-year reduction. On the other hand, in the first 9 months of 2017, the volume of construction and gross agricultural production continued to decline. Inflation in the consumer market has slowly increased, reaching 0.6% in January-September 2017 at an annual rate of 0.6%, which was accompanied by a softening of monetary conditions and the restoration of household consumption, "the survey said.

The review also notes that in Armenia the current fiscal consolidation is aimed at gradual reduction of the national debt. The ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP according to the plan for 2017 will decrease to 3% from 5.6% in 2016, due to less volume than a year earlier of state investments. The banking sector after successful recapitalization, according to the EBRD forecast, is well placed to increase lending to the economy.

Analysts of EBRD expect that the economic growth in Armenia will be boosted by the restoration of the economies of the main trading partners, but the Armenian economy remains vulnerable to several risks, including. volatility in commodity markets. At the same time, the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may pose a risk to the growth of the Armenian economy.

It should be noted that the state budget of Armenia for 2017 laid the GDP growth by 3.2%, against the 2.26% pledged for 2016. The government of the country at the meeting in late September approved the draft state budget of the republic for 2018 with GDP growth of 4.5%. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, economic activity in Armenia in January-September 2017 increased by 5.1% per annum (against 1.6% in the same period in 2016). In 2016, GDP growth slowed to 0.2% from 3.2% in 2015.

It should be recalled that according to the October updated forecast of the IMF, the GDP growth of Armenia for 2017 has been improved from the previous 2.9% to the current 3.5%, with a slowdown in 2018 to 2.9%. According to the World Bank forecast, the GDP growth in Armenia is expected to be 2.7% in 2017, with an acceleration of the rate in 2018 to 3.1%, in 2019 - up to 3.4%. According to the forecast of the EDB in 2017, the GDP of Armenia is expected to grow by 2.9%, the Asian Development Bank - by 2.2%. Fitch improved the forecast for GDP growth in Armenia in 2017 from the previous 2.1% to the current 3.4% with an acceleration to 3.6% in 2018. According to the updated forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the GDP growth of Armenia in 2017 will be 3.9-4.8%, and in 2018 the Central Bank forecasts real GDP growth of 5.5%, referring to the main drivers of services and the industrial sector. According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia for 2017, the ratio of state debt to GDP will be 55%. According to the state budget deficit in GDP, the Central Bank predicts 2.7% for 2018, against the expected 3.6% in 2017. With regard to money transfers of individuals, the Central Bank revised the forecast for growth for 2017 in the direction of a slowdown from the previous 14-16% to the current 12-14%, which was caused by the slow recovery of the Russian economy.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Armenia`s financial authorities continue loan market dedollarization Armenia`s financial authorities continue loan market dedollarization 
60 Armenian IT companies among Armenia`s 1,000 major taxpayers 60 Armenian IT companies among Armenia`s 1,000 major taxpayers 
Armenia`s minister of economy meets with BostonGene company reps Armenia`s minister of economy meets with BostonGene company reps 
Ameriabank leads Armenian mortgage marketAmeriabank leads Armenian mortgage market
Global Finance: Converse Bank is Armenia`s leading bank in Trade FinanceGlobal Finance: Converse Bank is Armenia`s leading bank in Trade Finance
Expert forecasts that growth of business activity in Armenian economy  to reach 7% this year Expert forecasts that growth of business activity in Armenian economy  to reach 7% this year 
Wizz Air to start operating flights to 4 new routesWizz Air to start operating flights to 4 new routes
ZCMC paid unprecedented taxes in 2022, exceeding the figure of the previous year by almost two and a half times.ZCMC paid unprecedented taxes in 2022, exceeding the figure of the previous year by almost two and a half times.
Armenian NPP comments on Azerbaijani Human Rights Commissioner`s call Armenian NPP comments on Azerbaijani Human Rights Commissioner`s call 
Armenia`s IT sector rapidly developing - reps Armenia`s IT sector rapidly developing - reps 
Armenia, Qatar discuss opportunities for investment cooperation Armenia, Qatar discuss opportunities for investment cooperation 
44,929 more officially registered jobs in Armenia as against last  year44,929 more officially registered jobs in Armenia as against last  year
Italian businesses interested in Armenia`s investment environment Italian businesses interested in Armenia`s investment environment 
Vahan Kerobyan raises Artsakh issue at Global Forum on Food and  Agriculture in BerlinVahan Kerobyan raises Artsakh issue at Global Forum on Food and  Agriculture in Berlin
Corporacion America  CEO expresses readiness to increase investments  in ArmeniaCorporacion America  CEO expresses readiness to increase investments  in Armenia
Loss ratio in CMPTL market decreased from 79% to 66% in 2022 Loss ratio in CMPTL market decreased from 79% to 66% in 2022 
Armenian banks record 3-fold growth in net profit in 2022Armenian banks record 3-fold growth in net profit in 2022
Expert: The development of the cryptosector in Armenia is the key to the involvement of new players, the growth of the tax base and jobs   Expert: The development of the cryptosector in Armenia is the key to the involvement of new players, the growth of the tax base and jobs  
901 transactions to amount of over AMD 56bln effected under economic  modernization programme in 2022901 transactions to amount of over AMD 56bln effected under economic  modernization programme in 2022
Armenia`s economy will not be able to withstand the expansion of  Turkish goods- EconomistArmenia`s economy will not be able to withstand the expansion of  Turkish goods- Economist
Armenia`s government to support hotels in Syunik, Vaiots DzorArmenia`s government to support hotels in Syunik, Vaiots Dzor
In Armenia, terms for removing arrest from citizens` accounts to be  reduced to 1-2 days from previous 7 days or moreIn Armenia, terms for removing arrest from citizens` accounts to be  reduced to 1-2 days from previous 7 days or more
Share of Armenia`s authorized capital in  EDB increased to 4.2291%,  while Russia`s stake in EDB decreased  to 44.7878%  Share of Armenia`s authorized capital in  EDB increased to 4.2291%,  while Russia`s stake in EDB decreased  to 44.7878%  
Armenia, Germany discuss number of issues on cooperation in economic  sectorArmenia, Germany discuss number of issues on cooperation in economic  sector
$350mln to invested in Zvartnots International Airport$350mln to invested in Zvartnots International Airport
Declaration of income: We have not achieved tax egalitarianism -  ExpertDeclaration of income: We have not achieved tax egalitarianism -  Expert
In Jan-Nov 2022, Armenian-Georgian trade turnover doubled compared to  2021, amounting to $759 million- PashinyanIn Jan-Nov 2022, Armenian-Georgian trade turnover doubled compared to  2021, amounting to $759 million- Pashinyan
Irakli Garibashvili announces about 70% increase in foreign trade  turnover with ArmeniaIrakli Garibashvili announces about 70% increase in foreign trade  turnover with Armenia
The beneficiary of The beneficiary of "The Power of One Dram" in January is the educational program "Talentum"
Fly Arna airline announces launch of new nonstop flights to Saint  PetersburgFly Arna airline announces launch of new nonstop flights to Saint  Petersburg
Vardan Aramyan: With the current quality and level of investments,  there is no need to talk about the growth of the economy`s potentialVardan Aramyan: With the current quality and level of investments,  there is no need to talk about the growth of the economy`s potential
Ministry of Economy of Armenia expects that ferry service to start  operating in Q1 2023Ministry of Economy of Armenia expects that ferry service to start  operating in Q1 2023
Armenia`s gross international reserves move down from historical highArmenia`s gross international reserves move down from historical high
Armenia`s tax revenues AMD 1,926bln in 2022Armenia`s tax revenues AMD 1,926bln in 2022
Robert Khachatryan: receiving station and satellite control center to  be put into operation during 2023Robert Khachatryan: receiving station and satellite control center to  be put into operation during 2023
Armenia extending restrictions on import of cement and clinkerArmenia extending restrictions on import of cement and clinker
New Year in Idram. results of 2022New Year in Idram. results of 2022
Ameriabank named Best Foreign Exchange Bank in Armenia by Global FinanceAmeriabank named Best Foreign Exchange Bank in Armenia by Global Finance
Economic growth in 2022 is not inclusive and leads to widening of  social gap - Luys FoundationEconomic growth in 2022 is not inclusive and leads to widening of  social gap - Luys Foundation
In 2022, social investments of Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Plant  amounted to about 3.5 billion dramsIn 2022, social investments of Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Plant  amounted to about 3.5 billion drams
Tariff for final consumers of electricity in Armenia will remain  unchanged in 2023Tariff for final consumers of electricity in Armenia will remain  unchanged in 2023
CBA to put into circulation new batch of 3rd generation thousandth  banknotes from January 23, 2023CBA to put into circulation new batch of 3rd generation thousandth  banknotes from January 23, 2023
Vahan Kerobyan: Unemployment rate in Armenia in 2023 will be below  10%Vahan Kerobyan: Unemployment rate in Armenia in 2023 will be below  10%
$56mln recovered to state budget in 2022$56mln recovered to state budget in 2022
CBA improves net private transfers forecast for 2022CBA improves net private transfers forecast for 2022
CBA improves unemployment forecast for 2022 CBA improves unemployment forecast for 2022 
RF Deputy Minister: financial institutions of Russia, Armenia are  expanding  network of correspondent relationsRF Deputy Minister: financial institutions of Russia, Armenia are  expanding  network of correspondent relations
Vahan Kerobyan: Number of labor migrants to reduce significantly next  yearVahan Kerobyan: Number of labor migrants to reduce significantly next  year
EDB analysts expect 12% growth in mutual trade in EAEU by end of 2022EDB analysts expect 12% growth in mutual trade in EAEU by end of 2022
Analyst: Global confrontation between West and Russia urgently  dictates the acceleration of integration processesAnalyst: Global confrontation between West and Russia urgently  dictates the acceleration of integration processes
Minister of Economy voices main risks to achieve economic growthMinister of Economy voices main risks to achieve economic growth
Final phase of ADB-financed bypass road program startsFinal phase of ADB-financed bypass road program starts
Deputy Prime Ministers of Armenia, Russia took part in solemn  ceremony of commemorative cancellation of stamp on establishment of  diplomatic relations between countriesDeputy Prime Ministers of Armenia, Russia took part in solemn  ceremony of commemorative cancellation of stamp on establishment of  diplomatic relations between countries
First stage of work under First stage of work under "Engineering City" program has been  successfully completed
Deadlines for submission of income declarations by individuals have  been changedDeadlines for submission of income declarations by individuals have  been changed
Armenia, Netherlands discuss new opportunities for cooperation in  technological fieldArmenia, Netherlands discuss new opportunities for cooperation in  technological field
Over 700,000 officially registered employees in Armenia Over 700,000 officially registered employees in Armenia 
Armenian Parliament elects CBA Deputy Governor and new member of CBA  Board Armenian Parliament elects CBA Deputy Governor and new member of CBA  Board 
IFC, Amundi-Acba Launch Partnership to Increase Investment in Armenia’s InfrastructureIFC, Amundi-Acba Launch Partnership to Increase Investment in Armenia’s Infrastructure
Structural reforms more urgent amid significant uncertainty – IMFStructural reforms more urgent amid significant uncertainty – IMF
Read more


Exchange rates
30.01.2023
RUB5.69-0.02
USD395.88-0.14
EUR431.870.60
GBP491.251.21
CAD297.25-0.15
JPY30.48-0.03
CNY58.540.05
CHF430.960.83