Wednesday, August 21 2019 20:15
Karine Melikyan

NPL still exceeds 9% of loan portfolio in Armenian banking system

NPL still exceeds 9% of loan portfolio in Armenian banking system

ArmInfo.. Overdue loans in the banking system of Armenia, despite the slowdown, still exceed 9% of the loan portfolio. According to the Financial Rating of the Banks of  Armenia as of June 30, 2019 prepared by ArmInfo IC, their volume in  the reporting period increased by 5% per annum, against the 14%  growth a year earlier.

The slowdown in growth of overdue loans slightly reduced the share of  NPL in the loan portfolio - to 9.2% by July 1, 2019 from 9.7% as of  the same date in 2018. Overdue loans accounted for over 309 billion  drams (about $ 648 million) in the loan portfolio of 3.4 trillion  drams ($ 7.1 billion, with an annual growth of 10.8%), of which the  dubious group accounted for 33%, more than 29% to the hopeless share,  against which less risky groups have a modest share: controlled -  13.3% and non-standard - 8.9%. A year earlier, the lion's share in  the structure of overdue loans was accounted for by a hopeless group  - over 37%, and the proportion of the dubious group was relatively  more modest - a little more than 27%, against their background loans  of the other less risky groups were: controlled - about 21% and  non-standard - almost 9%.

According to analysts at the AmRating Rating Agency, the annual  growth in the volume of overdue loans was provoked by an increase in  the doubtful group by 22%, where, most likely, some of the loans from  the controlled group migrated, as evidenced by a decrease in the  volume of the latter by 35.2%. It is not necessary to assume that the  reduction in the controlled group is the result of an improvement in  quality towards the standard one, with the almost constant weak  growth of the latter. Against this background, an annual decline in  the hopeless group by 21.2% would be wrong to consider as the  recovery of these loans, as evidenced by a sharp slowdown in profit  growth to 6.2%, most likely due to write-offs of toxic loans.  As a  comparison, analysts note that a year earlier, bad loans showed a  decline of 26.5%, against the backdrop of the growth of the dubious  group by 64.2% and the growth of less risky non-standard and  controlled - by 58.4% and 43%, respectively, with a significantly  modest the growth of the standard group - by 9.8%. At that time,  annual growth in profit was 2 times, but judging by the meager upward  dynamics of lending income, the conclusion was that there was no  improvement in the quality of the loan portfolio.  The bulk of bad  loans settled in consumer loans (including mortgages) - over 40%, in  the retail sector - over 19%, in the agricultural sector - about 17%  and industry - about 10%. These areas also dominate the total volume  of overdue loans: consumer loans (including mortgages) - 31%, trade -  more than 13%, agricultural sector - about 12% and industry - 8%.

In fact, launched last year, the government's initiative to amnesty  fines / penalties for bad loans with their attendant refinancing,  which banks began to implement without delay since July, did not save  the delay from growth. And since the banks announced the deadline for  accepting applications for amnesty on December 31, 2018, in 2019 the  growth in arrears continued, sharply slowing down the profit growth  in the first half of the year.

As AmRating analysts expected, the impact of an amnesty of bad loans  on improving the quality of the loan portfolio, especially by  refinancing only without taking into account the accumulated fines /  penalties, turned out to be short-term, having worked for a little  more than six months. "And it is possible that in the second half of  2019, the growth inhibition of profits will be more noticeable, and  subsidence as a result of concomitant write-offs of toxic loans is  also possible," experts say.

Interestingly, the statement made by the two banks at the beginning  of 2019 to extend the deadline for accepting applications for amnesty  of fines / penalties for bad loans even before August-September did  not find the "understanding" of the other banks, which further  confirms the probability of a situation with overdue loans worse side  and the negative impact of the accumulated on the level of  profitability.

It should be noted that according to the results of 2018, the total  net profit of Armenian banks increased by 79%, which, in all  likelihood, occurred as a result of the "salvation" of an amnesty of  a certain mass of bad loans. But since the continuation of this  policy in 2019 is not expected, it is likely that profit under the  pressure of toxic loans will begin to lose ground.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
Armenia intends to improve its performance in World Bank`s Doing  Business ranking by five positionsArmenia intends to improve its performance in World Bank`s Doing  Business ranking by five positions
Armenia is negotiating with Armenia is negotiating with "Gazprom Armenia" on developing  mechanisms for fixed gas pricing for a period of 10 years
$ 31.6 million transactions made at currency interbank of Armenia on  January 8-17, 2020$ 31.6 million transactions made at currency interbank of Armenia on  January 8-17, 2020
Karina Melikyan, Financial Analyst at ArmInfo IC, won the Best  Analytics nomination in the the UBA contestKarina Melikyan, Financial Analyst at ArmInfo IC, won the Best  Analytics nomination in the the UBA contest
VTB Bank (Armenia) intends to firmly establish its leading position by total number of opening new ATMs and branches in 2020VTB Bank (Armenia) intends to firmly establish its leading position by total number of opening new ATMs and branches in 2020
Armenia and UAE discussed further work of Armenian-Emirate  intergovernmental commissionArmenia and UAE discussed further work of Armenian-Emirate  intergovernmental commission
Gazprom Armenia does not exclude the possibility of applying to PSRC  with a request for a change in gas tariffsGazprom Armenia does not exclude the possibility of applying to PSRC with a request for a change in gas tariffs
Deputy PM: Subsidizing community development programs in Armenia  provides for efficient and modern solutionsDeputy PM: Subsidizing community development programs in Armenia  provides for efficient and modern solutions
Armenia joins agreement on facilitating access of the blind to  printed informationArmenia joins agreement on facilitating access of the blind to  printed information
RAEX-Europe confirmed Armenia`s ratings at `BB-` with outlook  RAEX-Europe confirmed Armenia`s ratings at `BB-` with outlook  "Positive"
HSBC Appoints New CEO in ArmeniaHSBC Appoints New CEO in Armenia
Nicola International Armenia LLC to invest 1.6 billion drams in  production expansionNicola International Armenia LLC to invest 1.6 billion drams in  production expansion
Revenues of the communications sector of Armenia for 11 months of  2019 increased by 0.9% per annumRevenues of the communications sector of Armenia for 11 months of  2019 increased by 0.9% per annum
During 11 months in 2019 volume of cargo transportation in Armenia  decreased by 50.7% with an increase in passenger traffic by 4.3%During 11 months in 2019 volume of cargo transportation in Armenia  decreased by 50.7% with an increase in passenger traffic by 4.3%
Armenia increased production of all alcoholic beverages in  January-November 2019 Armenia increased production of all alcoholic beverages in  January-November 2019 
In structure of manufacturing industry of Armenia, textile production  recorded the highest growthIn structure of manufacturing industry of Armenia, textile production  recorded the highest growth
Armenia ranks 69th among 190 countries in the World Bank`s Armenia ranks 69th among 190 countries in the World Bank`s "Women,  Business and the Law" 2020 report
Armenia`s metallurgical industry has stabilized in growth by December  2019Armenia`s metallurgical industry has stabilized in growth by December  2019
Armenia`s mining industry is steadily increasing volumesArmenia`s mining industry is steadily increasing volumes
In December, output of aluminum foil in Armenia exceeded production  volumes for whole of 2018In December, output of aluminum foil in Armenia exceeded production  volumes for whole of 2018
Armenia`s trade volume with the EAEU keeps growing, while declining  with the EU Armenia`s trade volume with the EAEU keeps growing, while declining  with the EU 
Ameriabank in numbers presented the results of the introduction of a  new online lending systemAmeriabank in numbers presented the results of the introduction of a  new online lending system
Statistics: The unemployment rate in Armenia in Q3 of 2019 amounted  to 18%Statistics: The unemployment rate in Armenia in Q3 of 2019 amounted  to 18%
AmRating: A growing low-cost mortgage is AmRating: A growing low-cost mortgage is "spurred on" by a steady  increase in property prices
RA Ministry of Economy forecasts 10% increase in exports for 2019RA Ministry of Economy forecasts 10% increase in exports for 2019
Armenia`s budget continues to be executed with surplus Armenia`s budget continues to be executed with surplus 
Tigran Khachatryan: In 2020, the number of tourists arriving in  Armenia will not yield to 2019 indicators  Tigran Khachatryan: In 2020, the number of tourists arriving in  Armenia will not yield to 2019 indicators  
Tigran Khachatryan: In 2020, the agricultural sector of Armenia will  enter a positive trendTigran Khachatryan: In 2020, the agricultural sector of Armenia will  enter a positive trend
Armenia`s gross external debt increased by 7.7% per annum by October  1, 2019 - up to $ 11.7 billionArmenia`s gross external debt increased by 7.7% per annum by October  1, 2019 - up to $ 11.7 billion
Ministry of Economy promises improvement of investment indicators of   country in 2020Ministry of Economy promises improvement of investment indicators of   country in 2020


Exchange rates
17.01.2020
RUB7.810.02
USD479.61-0.15
EUR533.71-1.41
GBP626.180.00
CAD364.74-0.32
JPY43.53-0.09
CNY69.63-0.10
CHF496.70-1.44


Experts
RAEX-Europe confirmed Armenia`s ratings at `BB-` with outlook  RAEX-Europe confirmed Armenia`s ratings at `BB-` with outlook  "Positive"
AmRating: A growing low-cost mortgage is AmRating: A growing low-cost mortgage is "spurred on" by a steady  increase in property prices
AmRating: Increasing toxicity of consumer loans will push banks to  not put all their eggs in one basketAmRating: Increasing toxicity of consumer loans will push banks to  not put all their eggs in one basket
Analysts Opinion on Central Bank Report Analysts Opinion on Central Bank Report 
ArmInfo has released its 100th anniversary bank bulletinArmInfo has released its 100th anniversary bank bulletin
Mining Industry as a Fanciful Game of Cats-and-MiceMining Industry as a Fanciful Game of Cats-and-Mice
Tigran Khachatryan: Attracting several transnational investors to  Armenia will allow the country to start playing for high stakesTigran Khachatryan: Attracting several transnational investors to  Armenia will allow the country to start playing for high stakes
During the first 5 years, the agricultural insurance market in Armenia will operate at a lossDuring the first 5 years, the agricultural insurance market in Armenia will operate at a loss
Artak Kamalyan: Education is the key to success. Everything else is of secondary importanceArtak Kamalyan: Education is the key to success. Everything else is of secondary importance
Head of PSRC: Whatever the agreement, the domestic tariff is  dependent on the price at the borderHead of PSRC: Whatever the agreement, the domestic tariff is  dependent on the price at the border
IMF: Armenia needs to achieve sustainable inclusive growthIMF: Armenia needs to achieve sustainable inclusive growth
Artur Atoyan: Problems of fish farmers are solved by the communist  method, that is, they are not solved at allArtur Atoyan: Problems of fish farmers are solved by the communist  method, that is, they are not solved at all
HSBC Bank Armenia digitalizes cooperation with retail clients HSBC Bank Armenia digitalizes cooperation with retail clients 
AmRating agency in cooperation with European Rating-Agentur Expert RA  GmbH has issued regular research on Armenia`s banking systemAmRating agency in cooperation with European Rating-Agentur Expert RA  GmbH has issued regular research on Armenia`s banking system
Yulia Ustyugova: Armenia can get access to IMF “insurance line”Yulia Ustyugova: Armenia can get access to IMF “insurance line”
Armand Arton: The question whether citizenship should be granted in  return for investments is rather rhetoricalArmand Arton: The question whether citizenship should be granted in  return for investments is rather rhetorical
Former head of the Ministry of Finance: <Confrontation> with Lydian may cost much to ArmeniaFormer head of the Ministry of Finance: with Lydian may cost much to Armenia
Vardan Aramyan: It will be unreasonable if the government goes to revise the allowable national debt ceiling in GDPVardan Aramyan: It will be unreasonable if the government goes to revise the allowable national debt ceiling in GDP
HSBC Bank Armenia increases efficiency and focuses on digital servicesHSBC Bank Armenia increases efficiency and focuses on digital services
Bulgarian Minister: The level of Armenian-Bulgarian economic  cooperation is still unsatisfactoryBulgarian Minister: The level of Armenian-Bulgarian economic  cooperation is still unsatisfactory

Search by date

Government Bonds

Issue volume

10 billion

Volume of T-bills for placement

200 million

Volume of submitted competitive applications

200 million

Volume of satisfied bids

200 million

Yield at cut-off price

 5.8314%

Maximum yield

 5.8314%

Мinimum yield

 5.8314%

Weighted average yield

 5.8314%

Number of participants

2

The maturity date of T-bills

03.02.2020

ArmEx

 

СПРОС (Покупка)

USD

Средневзв. Цена

482,00

ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЕ (Продажа)

  USD

Средневзв. Цена

-

СДЕЛКИ

USD

Цена откр.

482,00

Цена закр.

482,00

Мин. Цена

482,00

Макс. Цена

482,00

Ср/взв. Цена

482,00

-0.16

Кол-во сделок

1

Объем (инвал.)

200 000

0бъем (драм)

96 400 000

Commented
John D & Sosi Balian Foundation will allocate $ 1.65 million for  construction and improvement of new building of Erebuni  Archaeological Museum-ReserveJohn D & Sosi Balian Foundation will allocate $ 1.65 million for  construction and improvement of new building of Erebuni  Archaeological Museum-Reserve
Mining Industry as a Fanciful Game of Cats-and-MiceMining Industry as a Fanciful Game of Cats-and-Mice
Russian processing company Russian processing company "MultiCarta" discussed cooperation  opportunities with Yerevan Municipality in the transport sector
$ 270 Million to be invested in the construction of the first  skyscraper in Yerevan$ 270 Million to be invested in the construction of the first  skyscraper in Yerevan
The AGBU Women Entrepreneurs Program Launched in Artsakh: FRUITFUL  ARMENIA Foundation is the partnerThe AGBU Women Entrepreneurs Program Launched in Artsakh: FRUITFUL  ARMENIA Foundation is the partner
Forecast: Armenia has good prospects for expanding its presence in  the Polish marketForecast: Armenia has good prospects for expanding its presence in  the Polish market
Armenian government`s delegation headed by Prime Minister will take  part in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 6-7Armenian government`s delegation headed by Prime Minister will take  part in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 6-7
Concessionaire of Zvartnots International Airport promises to become  one of the best operators in the worldConcessionaire of Zvartnots International Airport promises to become  one of the best operators in the world
Arthur Javadyan: Central banks are not responsible for economic  growthArthur Javadyan: Central banks are not responsible for economic  growth
Forecast: Electricity exports to the Middle East through Iran are a  key component of Armenia`s geo- economic strategyForecast: Electricity exports to the Middle East through Iran are a  key component of Armenia`s geo- economic strategy
ArmInfo IC: In Armenia,  CMTPL loss ratio increased up to 64.5% in Q1  2019ArmInfo IC: In Armenia,  CMTPL loss ratio increased up to 64.5% in Q1  2019
From January 1, 2020, the cost of customs clearance of cars from  non-EEU countries in Armenia will increase by at least 4-5 fold:  whether the market for used cars is going upFrom January 1, 2020, the cost of customs clearance of cars from  non-EEU countries in Armenia will increase by at least 4-5 fold:  whether the market for used cars is going up
Overdue loans accelerate growth in banking system of ArmeniaOverdue loans accelerate growth in banking system of Armenia
RA Prime Minister: European Union is not ready to finance 100% of  development programs implementation in ArmeniaRA Prime Minister: European Union is not ready to finance 100% of  development programs implementation in Armenia
Converse Bank offers online loans at a low effective interest rateConverse Bank offers online loans at a low effective interest rate
Starting from Jan 1, 2020, a new micro-business taxation system will  be introduced in ArmeniaStarting from Jan 1, 2020, a new micro-business taxation system will  be introduced in Armenia
Renco company will attract additional shareholders and partners to  the project of building a new thermal-power plant in ArmeniaRenco company will attract additional shareholders and partners to  the project of building a new thermal-power plant in Armenia
T.Avinyan: The Government is open for cooperation and encourages  active dialogue and interaction in all areas T.Avinyan: The Government is open for cooperation and encourages  active dialogue and interaction in all areas 
Agreement on construction of a new unit with combined gas cycle  signed in YerevanAgreement on construction of a new unit with combined gas cycle  signed in Yerevan
Veolia Jur: Regulatory charges are false and unfoundedVeolia Jur: Regulatory charges are false and unfounded
Armenian Prime Minister: We are gaining momentum for economic takeoffArmenian Prime Minister: We are gaining momentum for economic takeoff