ArmInfo. The Armenian government is clearly aware of the economic realities, as a result of which, despite adjusting expectations for GDP growth from 4.9% budgeted by the end of the year to about 7%, by the end of 2020 it predicts only 4.9% growth. Head of the Chair of Management and Business of YSU Karlen Khachatryan stated this in an interview with ArmInfo correspondent.
It should be noted that according to the state budget of Armenia, GDP growth in 2019 will amount to 4.9%. Already in the budget for 2020, the Ministry of Finance adjusted its expectations to 6.3%, in the latest forecast of the Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia this indicator was raised to 6.9%. Nevertheless, yesterday, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said that the republic will close the year 2019 with economic growth within 7%. Nevertheless, the draft budget for 2020 predicts by the end of the year GDP growth at the same level of 4.9%. According to Moody's agency, in Armenia, real GDP growth in the medium term may reach approximately 5.5-6% over the next few years, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts a 6% GDP growth in 2019, and the World Bank - 5.5% with a slowdown in 2020 to 5.1%, and 5.2% in 2021.
According to Khachatryan, no matter how much the authorities and the expert community have announced monthly positive indicators for the growth of economic activity from 6% to 7% or more, it is clear that the statistical data on the share of such factors as car imports from third countries are quite large. And this source will be blocked from January 1, 2020 with the introduction of new pan-Eurasian rules for the customs clearance of vehicles. Of no small importance is the specific gravity of the mining industry, which has seriously suffered due to the suspension of the construction of the Amulsar gold mine.
All this, according to the expert, suggests that the inertia of the economic development of Armenia in 2020 and subsequent years will be in jeopardy, which is why the government's restrained forecast for GDP growth is due. "As a result, the Armenian government, despite the fact that today it collects more revenues due to, inter alia, tough administration, is not inclined to spend a lot at present to avoid problems in the future, forming appropriate reserves," the economist said.
According to the expert, the budget for next year is committed to old traditions. "Unfortunately, the state budget for 2020 is built according to the old logic - the same structure, the same appropriations by sectors. In general, the state budget for 2020 does not create the prerequisites for the economic revolution," Karlen Khachatryan concluded.